Challenges in providing effective flood forecasts and warnings

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1 Challenges in providing effective flood forecasts and warnings National Centre for Flood Research Inaugural Symposium Justin Robinson Bureau of Meteorology October 2018

2 Zero Lives Lost A key responsibility of the Bureau is the provision of warnings to protect life and property. Need to provide the right warning, to the right people, at the right time with the information they require to effectively protect life and property. We are undertaking a warnings review and moving to impact based warnings. We will need to work closely with our partners and the community to achieve the goal of zero lives lost. March 2018 Mid-North Coast flooding with rainfall streaming into the catchment with severe weather and flood watches and warnings current.

3 Some Key Lessons Local communities demonstrated high levels of resilience and helped each other during the flood emergency. Local communities are incredibly diverse and it is not easy to ensure that everyone receives, understands and responds to warnings. Warnings and detailed, real-time rainfall and river levels are extremely important to local communities but the volume of information makes it difficult to provide. The Bureau needs to work with the SES and the media to enhance the communication of warning information so people know the risk and can respond. Murwillumbah April 2018 attended by Jane Golding and Justin Robinson of the Bureau. The Bureau attended community meetings across the Northern Rivers.

4 Warning Messages Lessons from NSW Northern Rivers are being used nationally to enhance our flood warning messages. Social science and post event findings are influencing new service designs. Need to communicate what is the most likely as well as what is possible. It is not just about the warning text and forecasts. It is a service with multiple channels (traditional and social, media, mobile, local communities and the SES). Undertaking and major warnings review and the next generation warning service may be something totally different.

5 Weather Ensembles Mean Sea level Pressure Ensemble + 1 day Mean Sea level Pressure Ensemble + 7 day

6 Flood Ensembles Ensemble rainfall and water levels Ensemble flood extents

7 Observations and Forecasts Observations radar, rainfall and water levels underpin the flood warning service and response. There are limits to what can be forecast. Radar Rain gauge NWP Nowcasting is the process of confirming or fine-tuning forecasts based on recent observations. (there are many definitions). Need the capability to rapidly update and disseminate warnings to impacted communities when observations depart significantly from what was expected. How do we integrate real-time local flood intelligence? Forecast rainfall NWP Radar Rainfields integrates radar, rainfall observations and high resolution numerical weather prediction to produce rapid update rainfall forecasts

8 Local knowledge and historical floods Comparison to historical floods Historical Peak Height Relationships Compare current flood levels to historical floods Uki vs Murwillumbah

9 Challenges To learn from the past and embrace the future. Working as one team and building resilience of communities and agencies. Deeper of understanding of what people need and how it can be provided. Not everyone is the same and the challenge of diversity needs to be met. Automation and the integration of next generation of weather and flood forecasting capability with local knowledge to provide the right information and the right time to enable people to make informed decisions.

10 Thank you Questions?