NWS Resources For Public Works

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1 NWS Resources For Public Works August 28th, 2016 Shawn DeVinny Meteorologist National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN 1

2 APWA 2016 PWX 8/28/2016 National Weather Service Department of Commerce (DOC) National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Research Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) Satellites & Information Ocean Service Marine & Aviation Operations Center Weather Service Units (CWSUs) 122 Weather Forecast Offices 2

3 The protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy Accomplishing The Mission Forecasting Observing Analyzing Communication Warnings Watches Various Text Products NOAA Weather Radio Website(s) Social Media 3

4 Building A Weather-Ready Nation First goal: Improve Weather Decision Services for Events that Threaten Lives and Livelihoods User engagement: Increase engagement with users and core partners Times Are Changing In The National Weather Service Scientific understanding and weather model accuracy has improved over the years In some well forecast high-impact weather events, communication was found to be a shortcoming when the public was underprepared, despite a good forecast 4

5 Weather-Ready Nation Shift from product-focused service to interpretation and consultation NWS will evolve from the forecaster generating products based on static definitions toward a services model Products And Services Available To Public Works Call Us! Please! ( Twin Cities Office) We answer the phone 24 hours a day. Remember, we are a 24/7/365 operation! Don t ever worry about bugging us, this is why we re here Social Media- Facebook/Twitter Utilize NWSChat 5

6 Products And Services Available To Public Works Finding Weather Data Snowfall Data Temperature Data Event Summaries Historical Weather Information Top News Archives On Our Website The MN State Climatologist Products And Services Available To Public Works Warnings/Advisories/Watches How are they defined? Pros/Cons Statistics 6

7 Watch, Warning, Advisory WATCH: Weather having a significant impact on society is possible but details are uncertain. Watch, Warning, Advisory WARNING: Weather having a SIGNIFICANT impact on society is imminent or highly likely. Dangerous conditions expected. 7

Watch, Warning, Advisory ADVISORY: Weather having a MODERATE impact on society is imminent or highly likely. Hazardous conditions expected, but should not be dangerous if precautions are taken.

8 Watch, Warning, Advisory ADVISORY: Weather having a MODERATE impact on society is imminent or highly likely. Hazardous conditions expected, but should not be dangerous if precautions are taken. NWS Warning Criteria (discretion) Ice Storm: ¼ ice or more Wind Chill: -35 High Wind: 40 mph sustained, 58 mph gusts Heat: 105 heat index Flood: river reaches flood stage or longterm areal Flash Flood: life threatening Severe Tstm: 58 mph and/or 1 hail Tornado: radar or spotter 8

9 NWS Products Winter Storm Warning Snow of 6 or more in 12 hours Or Snow of 8 or more in 24 hours Or ½ or more of sleet Or a combination of heavy snow, sleet, significant wind, or freezing rain NWS Products Winter Storm Watch/Blizzard Watch Watches are issued once the forecaster reaches 50% confidence in an event reaching the criteria. We continue to move to forecaster discretion based on impacts The process is evolving NWS will evolve from static definitions toward a services model 9

10 Pros Of Watch Products Pros Provides you with a heads up 36+ hours ahead of time Well communicated Area and time defined Cons Of Watch Products Cons Can be misinterpreted Watches = 50% of criteria being reached. What does this mean to the user? In theory, up to 50% of watches will NOT be converted to a Warning Many expect a Watch to become a Warning. This is a misinterpretation of the product 10

11 January 30 th, 2014 Heavy snow occurred across the metro from 6AM-9AM on a Thursday morning. Amounts were generally under 6, but a Winter Storm Warning was issued the night before due to expected societal impacts from the timing and intensity of the snow. January 30 th,

12 January 30 th, 2014 AFD Update 12

13 NWS Products Winter Weather Advisory Snow of 3-6 Blowing Snow causing significant visibility restrictions Sleet of less than ½ Exceptions to these guidelines exist based on forecaster judgment Impacts NWS Products Blizzard Warning 35+ mph (sustained or frequent gusts) Visibility frequently < ¼ mile What s Missing? Considerable falling OR blowing snow 13

14 Ground Blizzards Major Misconception! It s all about Visibility 14

15 Pros Of Warning Products Pros Clearly defines an area and time when impacts will occur Clearly defines the hazard Communication of these products Well advertised- easy for you to get this information Consistency Credibility Cons Of Warning Products Cons County based- we are limited to county borders Difficult to get away from issuing based on static definitions Often lacks a description of forecaster confidence Can be difficult to interpret large blocks of text 15

16 Winter Storm Warning Stats POD- Probability Of Detection (county-bycounty analysis) 92% accuracy Average Lead Time For You To Prepare 21.2 hours Products And Services Available To Public Works Additional Useful Resources Mobile Devices Hourly Weather Graph AFD- Area Forecast Discussion Graphical Forecasts 16

Mobile Devices NWS Info mobile.weather.gov http://innovation.srh.noaa.

17 Mobile Devices NWS Info mobile.weather.gov Useful Resources The Hourly Weather Graph/Table An interactive graph showing hourly details for weather elements for any location A great tool in aiding decision-making When will the snow be the heaviest? 17

18 The Hourly Weather Graph How To Get To The Hourly Weather Graph 1) Go to our national website: weather.gov Useful Resources 18

How To Get To The Hourly Weather Graph 3) Your local forecast comes

19 How To Get To The Hourly Weather Graph 2) Submit you local city or zip code in the box in the upper left hand corner Useful Resources How To Get To The Hourly Weather Graph 3) Your local forecast comes up, find the hourly weather graph on the right hand side Useful Resources 19

20 The Hourly Weather Graph What if this forecast was for your location? A Table Instead Of a Graph? 20

21 Area Forecast Discussion This product explains the thinking behind the forecast and is generated by the forecaster after they ve completed their forecast The AFD is updated at least 2x per day Typically updated ~4 AM and ~4PM Will include scientific terminology How is this product useful to Public Works? Portraying confidence To get a sense of high or low forecaster confidence may influence decision-making If confidence is low, an explanation to why will be offered. Is it a timing issue? Uncertainty concerning precipitation type? Can explain details you simply can t get from the local forecast 21

22 An AFD Example Area Forecast Discussion Go to our local website: weather.gov/twincities Hover over Forecasts on the top center, and click on Forecast Discussion 22

Weather Graphics We produce a Weather Story updated every evening and early morning Instead of (or in addition to) reading various text products, you may find these very beneficial ahead of a

23 Weather Graphics We produce a Weather Story updated every evening and early morning Instead of (or in addition to) reading various text products, you may find these very beneficial ahead of a winter storm You can find the weather story on our home page and we also post all updates to our Facebook and Twitter accounts Weather Graphics During Winter Weather Before The Storm Timing 23

24 Weather Graphics During Winter Weather Before The Storm Timing Uncertainty 24

25 Weather Graphics During Winter Weather Before The Storm Timing Uncertainty Communicating how mixed precipitation events will unfold Graphics best demonstrate where to expect snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain etc. 25

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27 Radar Basics The difference between rain and snow Be careful when viewing radar that displays snow, rain, and mix Radar doesn t actually detect precipitation type directly Algorithms convert the reflectivity to a precipitation type (not always accurate) Radar Basics Snow banding A band of snow is usually prominent during most snow storms. There is often a narrow band of heaviest reflectivity within this. This heavy narrow band will pivot at some point, which typically produces the highest snowfall amount 27

the ground as possible Won t fool you as easily because you are seeing the lowest scan Composite Reflectivity

28 Rain vs. Snow Rain Snow Base vs Composite Reflectivity Base Reflectivity The lowest radar scan Helpful in seeing as low to the ground as possible Won t fool you as easily because you are seeing the lowest scan Composite Reflectivity Displays the maximum return at any level Will always look worse than base reflectivity Can fool you in to thinking it should be snowing (evaporation is common at the onset of a storm) Recommendation: Use base reflectivity only 28

29 Products And Services Available To Public Works Finding Past Weather Data Snowfall Data Temperature Data Event Summaries Historical Weather Information Top News Archives On Our Website The MN State Climatologist MN State Climatologist Another resource for climatological weather data Includes climate data for the Twin Cities back to the 1800 s 29

30 Finding Past Weather Data Hover over Climate and Past Weather, then click on Local 30

31 Monthly Climate Data (An Example) Look back at how much snow fell 31

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33 Event Summaries After a winter weather event, we ll post a summary Table of snowfall amounts Map of snowfall amounts Check our website for these Top News of the Day Typically posted to social media as well Need snowfall amounts during the storm? Check the Public Information statement 33

34 Send us reports to! Products And Services Available To Public Works Call Us! Please! ( Twin Cities Office) We answer the phone 24 hours a day. Remember, we are a 24/7/365 operation! Don t ever worry about bugging us, this is why we re here inws- Interactive NWS Social Media- Facebook/Twitter Utilize NWSChat 34

35 Warning Reception: inws Interactive National Weather Service Weather alerts to your mobile device via text message and Select your alert area and which alerts you want Public safety officials Find us on Facebook 35

36 Follow Us on Twitter NWS Chat You can sign up for NWS Chat Must first request access via the website Our office identifier is MPX Join the MPX Chat room or find your local office Chat rooms are monitored 24/7 We respond to questions and often post more and quicker updates concerning the weather You can also see a feed of our products as they are published 36

37 A special thanks to Mark Ray Public Works Director/City Engineer City of Crystal, MN Thank You! Shawn DeVinny Meteorologist National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN 37

NWS Resources For School Districts

NWS Resources For School Districts January 23rd, 2017 Shawn DeVinny shawn.devinny@noaa.gov Meteorologist National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN Outline Watches/Warnings/Advisories Example