Impact Based Warning Tornado - Infrastructure

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1 National Weather Service Impact Based Warning Tornado - Infrastructure Jim Kramper Warning Coordination Meteorologist St. Louis, MO NOAA s National Weather Service

2 2011 was a devastating year for tornado deaths: Service Assessments completed to find out what worked, what can be improved, etc.

3 People still depend on outdoor warning sirens People sought confirmation from many sources before seeking shelter did not respond to warnings until confirmed by more than one communication source.

4 Actual Account Heard 1 st sirens at 5:11 (30 35 minutes before tornado hit). Went to TV and heard warning from a TV override indicating storm was 7 miles north of his location. Went on porch with family and had a cigar. Looked like a regular thunderstorm. Heard 2 nd sirens (27 minutes later).

5 Thought something wasn t right so went inside and turned local TV stations on. Saw on TV several colored counties for tornado warnings, but regular programming was still on and still thought the threat was to the north. Heard his wife yell basement, grabbed the cat and told his son to put shoes on. Tornado hit as they reached the top of the basement stairs, destroying their home.

6 Credible, extraordinary risk signals, are what prompt people to take protective action People in the path waited for visual confirmation before taking protective action.

7 What is this demonstration all about? Improved communication of risk Clearly identifying potential impacts

8 5 Weather Forecast Offices Wichita, KS Topeka, KS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO Springfield, MO Saint Louis, MO April 2, 2012

9 2013: Entire Central Region Some tweaks, wording changes Work in progress Based on feedback

10 Three Main Additions To Warning Text Hazard Tornado, Hail, Damaging Wind Source Radar Indicated, People reported, Radar Confirmed Impacts What could this hazard do to you!

11 THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION HAZARD DEADLY TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL SOURCE SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES REPORTED IN LADUE. IMPACT LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUILDINGS UPROOTED TREES AND DEBRIS WILL RESTRICT ACCESS TO MANY AREAS.

12 Tornado Tag Radar Indicated Observed Tornado Damage Threat Considerable Catastrophic

13 Performed by the group Weather and Emergency Management (WxEM) Using focus groups and surveys Media Partners Emergency Management Public Independent Evaluation NWS Forecasters

14 Tornado - Infrastructure Improved Warnings: Societal Behavior Infrastructure People have to have adequate shelter available

15 Infrastructure Quick look at two events April 27, 2011 Southeast U.S. Outbreak Jackson, MS Huntsville, AL Birmingham, AL 195 deaths

16 May 22, 2011 Joplin, MO 158 deaths Infrastructure Where Did People Die?

17 Jackson, Huntsville, Birmingham Permanent Home: 101: 52% Mobile Home: 46: 24% Permanent Structure: 17: 9%??: 14: 7% Church: 7: 4% Vehicle: 5: 3%

18 Joplin Permanent Home: 65: 41% Permanent Structure: 35: 22% Vehicle: 15: 9% Long-Span Roof: 12: 8% Church: 11: 7%??: 9: 6%

19 J/H/B and Joplin Permanent Home: 166: 47% Permanent Structure: 52: 15% Mobile Home: 48: 14%??: 24: 7% Vehicle: 20: 6% Church: 18: 5%

20 Infrastructure NWS Service Assessment The Historic Tornadoes of April 2011 Executive Summary Residences did not have adequate shelter. many conventional homes were woodframe and did not have reinforced safe rooms or basements

21 Infrastructure Joplin Tornado While some homes did have basements, the great majority did not either due to them being older, lower income, or because much of the land over the western portion of the track was old mined property.

22 Conclusions NWS will continue to work to improve our detection/warning capability Societal and sociological factors play an important role in warning response. Infrastructure will often be a dominant factor regardless of the warning system.

23 Weather-Ready Nation

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