Communicating Hurricane Threats and Impacts on a National Scale. Daniel Brown Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Hurricane Center

Transcription

1 Communicating Hurricane Threats and Impacts on a National Scale Daniel Brown Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Hurricane Center

2 New NWS Products to Help Communicate Potential Impacts New probabilistic products Wind Speed Probabilities (2005) Storm Surge Probabilities (2007) Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook introduced (2007), color-coded probabilities added (2008), and extended to 5-days (2013) Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watch & Warning lead times increased in 2010 Extreme Wind Warning Introduced (2005)

3 New NWS Products to Help Communicate Potential Impacts WFO Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphics Storm Surge Flood Map became available in 2015 Storm Surge Watch/Warning introduced in 2016 (operational in 2017) Time of Arrival Graphic (experimental in 2017)

4 NWS Hurricane Irene Service Assessment Recommendations: NWS needs to improve information services and product delivery to convey relevant impacts, risks, and the urgency of required actions associated with landfalling tropical cyclones for use by decision makers without meteorological expertise. Through programs such as the FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team at NHC, NOAA/NWS should actively recruit new and develop existing NOAA/NWS scientists who can effectively communicate with those at the highest levels of government.

5 NWS Hurricane Sandy Service Assessment Best Practices: Development and delivery of concise DSS briefings and briefing packages, including one-pagers and presentations that synthesized complex information. Briefings contained graphic and textbased information, focused on impacts, and contained confidence and worstcase scenario information that aided decision making.

6 Weather Information Available Briefing Content Decisions that need to be Made

7 What are customer needs, and how do they differ? Emergency manager Increased level of spatial and temporal detail Increased level of uncertainty communicated Media (Radio vs. Television vs. Newspaper) Less spatial and temporal detail More protective action discussion/recommendation (general) Less uncertainty communicated Likely your briefing (interview) will be edited before release

8 Briefing Structure Start and finish with important points Briefing Content Focus on the what, and not the why Briefing Clarity (performance) Speak customer s language

9 All briefings should be designed to answer these questions: What is it When is it going to get here What is it going to do When is it going to be over What is your confidence this will occur

10 Must Know Introduction 3-5 Points Must Remember Support Material The what, where, and when Confidence Summarize Must Know Restate must know points Focus questions Always begin and end with what you want remembered

11 Language (text, words) Graphs, Plots, Maps Symbols Colors Graphics (photos, schematics, etc) Signal to noise ratio Complexity vs. Simplicity Detail vs. Brevity

12 You will have more information than you can, or should, brief. Prioritize information. State what they need to know, no more. Focus on the what, not the why. Tailored for targeted customer base. Water managers vs. EM/civil defense

13 Explain what it is Ordinate, abscissa, plot, symbols Briefly describe region Point out a frame of reference Reduce Noise If not discussed, don t include

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15 The What, Not the Why!

16 Do not bury the lead Be nice and concise Sell what you have to say Be confident, calm, and assertive Speak like the audience is taking notes Anticipate questions and responses If you don t have anything to say, don t say it

17 Tell me what I need to know, when I need to know it Skip Dugger, FDEM retired

18 Assist people in making more effective decisions Helps manage user expectations Promotes user confidence Probabilistic forecasts allows user to set thresholds Reflects the state of the science Words matter - chose them carefully!

19 Katrina Higher Storm Surge from Isaac in parts of SE Louisiana due to angle of approach and different landfall location Isaac Every storm is different (size, intensity, structure, angle of approach). Analogs can be carefully used to explain with this storm is going to be different than a past one.

20 Not by outlining why you could be wrong But by giving a range of possibilities Here is our best estimate / what we do know Here is what you should be planning for-- reasonable worst case/alternate scenarios

21 "The NWS forecast is just that - a forecast. And we need to be prepared to respond to incidents based on the best available information. The most important aspect of this event is that people responded and lives were saved." - Craig Fugate

22 Hurricane Liaison Team Providing real-time support Initial idea arose in the early 1990 s Proven during response to the 1995 Hurricane Season Andy Newman Former National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield discusses where to issue watches and warnings along the west coast of Florida for Hurricane Charley. Formalized in 1996 Request from Governor of Florida to FEMA and NHC Director

23 Hurrevac: Hurricane Liaison Team Augment rapid communications Timing of hazards vs Clearance times Partnership between the NWS and FEMA FEMA Hurricane Program Managers FEMA Reservists NWS meteorologists and hydrologists Support response operations through the rapid exchange of critical information between the National Hurricane Center and emergency managers at all levels.

24 Hurrevac: Hurricane Liaison Team Augment rapid communications Timing of hazards vs Clearance times Video/Teleconferences NHC/NWS FEMA and other Federal Agencies State Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) Responding to emergency management questions and concerns. 24

25 Communicating the Forecast with State and Federal emergency management