Weather forecasts and warnings: Support for Impact based decision making

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1 Weather forecasts and warnings: Support for Impact based decision making Gerry Murphy, Met Éireann

2 An Era of Change Climate and weather is changing Societal vulnerability is increasing The nature of weather information and communication is changing

3 Climate is Changing Ocean Heat Content Content Global average temperature Atmospheric CO 2 90 % of the warming that has happened on Earth over the past 50 years has occurred in the ocean. Temperature (2016): 1.1 C above the pre-industrial period Carbon dioxide reached > ± 0.1 parts per million in the atmosphere. NOAA climate.gov & WMO (2017)

4 Increased Urbanization Urban and rural population of the world, By 2050, 66 per cent of the world s population is projected to be urban. From: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision.

5 Severe thunderstorms on 22 nd August 2017

6 Increasing accuracy of Numerical Weather Prediction models

7 Global Model - ECMWF

8 Regional Model - Hirlam

9 Fine Scale Model - Harmonie

10 Met Éireann & UKMO Radar Network Network of 12 radars 3 in Ireland 9 in GB Every 15 minutes

11 Weather Forecasting Why can t we make perfect forecasts? Limited Data Inaccurate Data Inability to rigorously solve the equations Chaotic nature of the atmosphere

12 Probabilistic Forecasting

13 Ensemble forecasts Bauer et al., 2015 Nature EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,

14 ECMWF Tropical cyclone tracks strike probability EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,

15 Weather Warnings Long established warnings system / criteria for Govt bodies, Local Authorities etc Warnings system recast to align National weather warnings fully with Meteoalarm (European) RED ORANGE YELLOW status warnings issued

16 Wind Warnings RED Mean Speeds in excess of 80 km/h Gusts Speeds in excess of 130 km/h Orange Mean Speeds between 65 and 80 km/h Gusts between 110 and 130 km/h Yellow Mean Speeds between 50 and 65 km/h Gusts between 90 and 110 km/h

17 Rainfall Warnings RED 70mm or greater in 24 hrs 50mm or greater in 12 hrs 40mm or greater in 6 hrs ORANGE 50mm 70mm in 24 hrs 40mm 50mm in 12 hrs 30mm 40mm in 6 hrs

18 Rainfall Warnings YELLOW 30mm 50mm in 24 hrs 25mm 40mm in 12 hrs 20mm 30mm in 6 hrs

19 Winter Storm naming system Joint arrangement between Met Eireann and UKMO PURPOSE To highlight and enhance awareness of severe weather affecting Ireland and UK.

20 Storm names

21 Met Eireann criteria for storm naming Red wind warning: Mean wind speeds of greater than 80 Km/hr (43 Kts) Gust speeds of greater than 130 Km/hr (70 Kts) Orange wind warning: Mean wind speeds of 65 to 80 Km/hr (35 to 43 Kts) Gust speeds of 110 to 130 Km/hr (59 to 70 Kts)

22 Ex Hurricane Ophelia

23 Weather Advisory YELLOW Friday 13/10/2017 at 10am: On Monday, an Atlantic storm from the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will move northwards close to Ireland. There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the exact track and evolution of the storm. However, storm force winds, heavy rain and high seas are threatened. Met Éireann will continue to monitor this storm and will issue appropriate warnings as required.

24 Saturday 14/10/17 Weather Warning RED, ORANGE Red for southwest & west (5 counties), Orange for the rest of country Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions on Monday. Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

25 Weather Warning RED, Sunday 15/10/17 at 8 pm Red level wind warnings extended to all Ireland Ex-Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to track directly over Ireland during daytime Monday. Violent and destructive gusts are forecast with all areas at risk and in particular the southwest and south in the morning, and eastern counties in the afternoon. Also heavy rain and storm surges along some coasts will result in flooding. There is potential risk to lives.

26 Ex Hurricane Ophelia

27 Ex Hurricane Ophelia

28 Ex Hurricane Ophelia

29 Threshold based warnings Warnings based on clear thresholds Example: Orange wind warning: Mean wind speeds of 65 to 80 Km/hr (35 to 43 Kts) Gust speeds of 110 to 130 Km/hr (59 to 70 Kts)

30 Threshold based Warnings Advantage: Clear, simple Makes decisions on storm naming clear cut. Disadvantage Doesn t take location/ vulnerability / impacts into account

31 Impact based warnings Warning issued takes account of range of relevant factors: Location Vulnerabilities of people, infrastructure Potential Impacts Population Time of day Etc.

32 What is Impact based forecasting Changing focus from: What will the weather BE To What till the weather DO

33 Support for Impact Based Decision Making

34 Impact based Warning Examples of possible vulnerabilities / impacts Wind gusts of 110 to 120 km/hr in Mullingar will have a potentially greater impact than in West Donegal Infrastructure, adaption Heavy rain in Dublin will between 7 am and 10 am will have a much bigger impact than between 1 am and 4 am

35 Why Impact Based Forecasting Provide more detailed information for decision makers Respond to increased demand from customers Improve quality of forecasts and warnings Improve emergency responses - hence save lives

36 Threshold based forecasting vs Impact based forecasting Threshold based warning ORANGE WIND WARNING: Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal West to southwest winds, veering west to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65 to 85 km/hr with gusts of 110 to 130 Km/hr Valid time: Tuesday 14 th November from 0900 to 1800.

37 Threshold based forecasting vs Impact based forecasting Impact based warning ORANGE WIND WARNING: Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal On Tuesday 14 th November from 0900 to 1800, west to southwest winds, veering west to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65 to 85 km/hr with gusts of 110 to 130 Km/hr. Winds will be strongest in coastal areas. Power outages can be expected. High risk of roads becoming impassable due to fallen trees. Winds will be strongest in Galway and Mayo between 9 am and 12 pm and in Donegal between 12 pm and 6 pm.

38 Partnerships with Stakeholders Successful Impact based forecasting requires collaboration with others who have the additional necessary expertise, resources and knowledge to deliver impact services that NMHSs cannot do on their own. From WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impactbased Forecast and Warning Services

39 Met Éireann Stakeholders The general public Local authorities Emergency services Semi-state bodies such as the ESB Private organisations

40 Partnerships with Stakeholders Understand their needs and how they use forecasts and warnings to make decisions. Exchange expertise and knowledge of vulnerabilities and impacts Vulnerable people / groups Vulnerable locations Most important times of day Decide suitable warning thresholds

41 Partnerships with Stakeholders Develop suitable decision making systems Impact Tables Eg. For ESB, Define wind speeds at locations to estimate risk of power outages Impact Matrices

42 Impact Matrix Table

43 UKMO Impact based warning naming system Impact based system using warning matrix Storm names require an Amber or Red warning

44 Partnerships with Stakeholders Put in place structures and communication strategies for: Ongoing consultation Severe weather protocol Training and Education Good Governance

45 Technical Infrastructure Data collection, storage & display Wide range of observations from several sources Increase temporal and spatial resolution of observations Bring data from climate network to near real-time 5 or 6 Dual Polarization Radar Acquire data from schools, cars, phones Weather reports on social media

46

47 Met Éireann Radar Composite 2 radars Dublin Airport Shannon Airport Every 5 minutes

48 Met Éireann & UKMO Radar Network Network of 12 radars 3 in Ireland 9 in GB Every 15 minutes

49 Road-Ice forecasts system Partnerships with stakeholders Regular engagement at Management 24/7 consultation service End of season review withtransport Infrastructure Ireland Suitable technical infrastructure Network of strategically located roadside weather stations Vaisala Navigator to view observations, graphs etc. robust forecast dissemination system Suitable forecasting tools on IBL

50

51 Forecast Operations / Work Practices Communication of uncertainties in forecasts and warnings Produce Extended range Guidance for selected stakeholders Issue Warning assessments

52 ECMWF Tropical cyclone tracks strike probability EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,

53 Communication MET Eireann weather App TV and radio Social media Regular interaction with stakeholders

54 stats for Monday 16 th October: (Storm Ophelia) Between desktop and mobile there were: 4.32 million page views 180,000 an hour 3,000 a minute (peaking at about 6,500 a minute) Normal day 233k Page views 9,710 an hour 161 a minute

55 Social media Twitter Facebook WhatsApp Snapchat Etc.

56 On Monday 16 TH October 2017 (Storm Ophelia) Nearly 10 million impressions (views) of our tweets on Twitter.

57 Why Impact Based Forecasting Provide more detailed information for decision makers Respond to increased demand from stakeholders Improve quality of forecasts and warnings Improve emergency responses - hence save lives

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