2015 Hurricane Season Outlook and Preparedness. Amy Godsey State Meteorologist State Emergency Response Team Florida Division of Emergency Management

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1 2015 Hurricane Season Outlook and Preparedness Amy Godsey State Meteorologist State Emergency Response Team Florida Division of Emergency Management

2 2015 Hurricane Season

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4 Last Hurricane Landfall: Kate 1985 Last Major Hurricane Landfall: Eloise 1975

5 Tropical Cyclone Hazards

6 Tropical Cyclone Classifications Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Hurricane Sub-Tropical Storm, Extratropical Storm, Post-Tropical Storm

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13 Hurricanes Come In All Sizes FLOYD VS. ANDREW -- A SIZE COMPARISON Larger storms will generate hazardous conditions over a much greater area

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15 Storm Surge

16 Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the astronomical tides. Storm surge should not be confused with storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases.

17 Debunking the Myth: Surge Height Connected to Storm Category Cat. 3 Katrina: 27 ft Cat. 2 IKE: 20 ft Cat. 4 Charley: 7 ft

18 Factors Affecting Storm Surge Intensity (wind speed) Forward Speed Angle of Approach Size - Radius of Maximum Winds (RMW) Width and Slope of Shelf Local features concavity of coastlines, bays, rivers, headlands, or islands

19 Storm Surge Model Map

20 Know Your Zone

21 Storm Surge Inundation Map (NHC) will issue the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map for areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States at risk of storm surge from a tropical cyclone. This new map will show: Geographical areas where inundation from storm surge could occur. How high above ground the water could reach in those areas. Here are some things to know about this map: The map shows inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded, and can be though of as representing a reasonable worst-case scenario. The map is subject to change every 6 hours with every new NHC advisory. Due to processing time required to produce the map, it may not be available until minutes after the advisory release. Available as an interactive image for GIS exportable data (able to be uploaded into GATOR) possibly available for 2015.

22 Waves and Rip Currents 6 deaths in 2010 & 2012 Hidden danger because it can occur when a storm is well offshore Swells from a large hurricane can affect the beaches of the entire western Atlantic

23 Hurricane-Induced Tornadoes Nearly 70% of landfalling hurricanes ( ) spawned at least 1 tornado 40% of landfalling hurricanes spawn more than 3 tornadoes Some hurricanes produce tornado outbreaks Hurricane Beulah (1967): 141 Hurricane Ivan (2004): 117 Hurricane Frances (2004): 101 Hurricane Rita (2005): 90 Hurricane Camille (1969): 80 Hurricane Katrina (2005): 43

24 Where Do Most Tornadoes Occur? Tornadoes with hurricanes: Friction with land creates low-level wind conditions favorable for the development of tornadoes More than 90% of all tornadoes occur in the right front quadrant of the storm relative to the storm motion Most develop more than 100 miles away from the center of the storm Low Tornado Threat Lowest Tornado Threat Greatest Tornado Threat Moderate Tornado Threat

25 Floods Magnified in urban areas Boats Float, Cars Don t

26 Percentage of Significant Floods Associated With Tropical Cyclones

27 Hurricane Forecasting

28 Forecasting Hurricanes sparse ocean data Reconnaissance: Vital Data Satellites: GOES and QuikSCAT (OSVW) Ships and Buoys: ocean surface data Dropsondes from Reconnaissance NWS WFOs: Radar, Upper Air soundings, Local expertise Land Observations

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30 Katrina 5 Day Forecast Model Plots 08/24/2005 1:00 pm CDT.

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32 Forecast Cone It s not an impact cone! Represents the probable track of the cyclone center Formed by connecting circles on each forecast point (12hr, 24, 36, etc)

33 Impacts often occur outside the cone

34 How Does 2015 Look?

35 Total # Named Storms Tropical Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes Florida Landfalls ENSO phase El Niño La Niña Weak La Niña Weak La Niña - Neutral Neutral Neutral

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38 Pre-Season Forecasts Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes

39 Whether below or above normal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin will always pose risks & preparedness is a must Seasonal forecast models look at similar years to make seasonal predictions 1997 (8/3/1) & 2002 (12/4/2) were two recent prior years that featured developing El Nino conditions in the Pacific Seasonal predictions CAN T tell you where landfalls are most likely. Note the differences between 2001 and 2008

40 2001 Hurricane Season 15 named storms 8 hurricanes

41 2008 Hurricane Season 16 named storms 8 hurricanes

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45 Steering Currents are the Key

46 Named Storms Actual Named Hurricanes Actual Hurricanes Accuracy 51% (-) 62%(+) 85%(+) 91%(-) 66%(+) 95% 83% 62%(-) 53%(+)

47 Named Storms Actual Named Hurricanes Actual Hurricanes Accuracy 53%(-) 57%(+) 77%(+) 97% 63%(+) 89%(-) 84% 59%(-) 50%(+)

48 The Only Seasonal Forecast You Need

49 Preparedness is Key

50 A Growing Population At Risk KS +6.1% OK +8.7% TX +20.6% MO +7.0% TX +9.1% LA +1.4% VA +13.0% KY +7.4% NC TN +11.5% +18.3% SC +15.3% AL GA MS +7.5% +18.3% +4.3% Percent Change From FL +17.6% Population Density, Census 2000

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52 What Every Floridian Needs to Know About Hurricanes It s Going to Happen, It s Just a Question of When A Hurricane is NOT a Point on the Map What are the Hurricane Hazards/Risks? What does it mean to you? What actions should you take to be prepared? Where do I get information?

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54 The Ugly Side of El Nino

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56 Hazard Analysis Probability Frequency Severity Risk Factor Human Property Business Potential Damage Total Vulnerability Hazard (P/F)*S=RF H+P+B=PD RF/PD = V Severe Weather % Tropical Storm % Cyber Attack/Virus % Building Fire % Sick Building % Sink Holes % Hurricane - Cat 1 & % Tornado % Workplace Violence % Health Hazard/Disease % Building System Failure % Flooding % Hazmat Release % Bomb Threat % Terrorist Threat % Hurricane - Cat 3, 4, & % Lightning % Freeze % Drought % Earthquake % Tsunami % Explosion % Terrorist Event WMD % Aircraft Accident % Civil Disturbance % Nuclear Attack % SCALE SCALE Low 1 Low 1 Below Average 2 Average 2 Average 3 High 3 Above Average 4 Extensive 4 High 5 Catastrophic 5

57 COOP Level DEM COOP Activation Level SEOC/SWO Division/SEOC Timeline All Other Functions 3 Tallahassee Area Disruption to 1 or 2 essential functions or to a vital system for no more than three days. Example: Power outage, Chiller incident, small fire or moderate flood, renovations to primary facility Less than 6 hours Full SEOC Capabilities Less than 24 hours 2 Orlando / State Logistics Resource Center Disruption up to 3 or 4 essential functions or entire agency with potential of lasting more than three days. COOP activation to move staff to an alternate facility Example: Hurricane, workplace violence, major communications failure or major power outage, sick building, HAZMAT or Elevated Homeland Security Advisory System Threat Level 6-12 hours Full SEOC Capabilities Up to 72 hours 1 Camp Blanding Disruption to the entire agency with a potential for lasting at least two weeks or more Example: catastrophic event, explosion, terrorist attack, contamination of primary facility; major fire or flooding; earthquake, tsunami or Elevated Homeland Security Advisory System Threat Level 6-12 hours Full SEOC Capabilities Up to 30 days/indefinite period of time

58 COOP Level 3 CHECKLIST Phase I- Activation and Relocation COOP Activation Checklist Division/SEOC Timeline 1. Notify Relocation Team Manager and alternate facility of impending activation and relocation requirements. 2. Notify DEM staff of impending activation 3. Notify affected local, state and federal agencies( by priority) 4. Activate COOP plans to transfer to alternate facility. 5. Instruct relocation team and IMT team to deploy to get alternate site ready for staff. 6. Notify staff regarding activation of COOP plan and their status. 7. Notify vendors regarding activation of COOP plan and their status 8. Prepare for movement of documents and equipment required for primary mission essential functions at alternate site. 9. Purchase/order needed equipment/supplies. 10. Transport documents, equipment and communications. 11. Make sure primary facility is secured before departure 12. Continue mission essential functions at primary facility, if available, until alternate facility is ready. 13. Make sure primary facility is secured before departure 14. Advise alternate facility on status. 15. Deploy and Activate operations and support teams as necessary

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