Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Watches/Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border; Pamlico Sound; Eastern Albemarle Sound A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Little River Inlet to south of Surf City A Warning is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina to south of Surf City; the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, including the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay; Western Albemarle Sound Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 32.4 north, 78.5 west (previous location: 29.1 north, 79.1 west) LOCATION: 260 miles (415 kilometers) southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina MOVEMENT: north-northeast at 14 mph (22 kph) (previous movement: north at 7 mph (11 kph)) WINDS: 90 mph (150 kph) with gusts to 115 mph (185 kph) (previous sustained winds: 60 mph (95 kph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 115 miles (185 kilometers) from the center of circulation RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 25 miles (35 kilometers) from the center of circulation CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 mb (28.97 inches of mercury) (previous pressure: 997 mb) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 1 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: Latest Satellite Picture (Image by NOAA) None Low Med High None Low Med High Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3,

2 Discussion Arthur, located approximately 260 miles (415 kilometers) southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is currently tracking north-northeast at 14 mph (22 kph). Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning. Both aircraft have measured surface winds of around 90 mph (150 kph), which is the basis for the new initial intensity. Arthur is forecast to remain in a low wind shear environment and move over warm water during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some additional intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for Arthur to reach Category Two strength prior to its landfall or closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered intensity guidance. After that time, Arthur will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the wind shear is forecast to increase as Arthur interacts with a trough that will be moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should steadily weaken after that. Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little faster and appears to have turned northnortheastward, although the motion over the last hour or two was northward. The hurricane should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the advancing trough nearing the U.S. east coast. The forecast models are in good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland over eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the models increases some with one cluster showing a faster track and along the western side of the guidance. Another cluster is a bit slower and to the right. The NHC forecast leans toward the faster faster track, but has been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five. The forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days. storm conditions are expected to reach and spread northward through the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Hurricane-force winds are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning this evening. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: - North Carolina within the Hurricane Warning area: 3 to 5 feet - Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds: 2 to 4 feet - Southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina: 1 to 3 feet - Extreme southeastern Virginia: 1 to 2 feet Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches are expected over coastal areas of North Carolina through Friday. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible along the upper coast of South Carolina. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal North Carolina through tonight. Swells generated by Arthur are affecting areas from the east-central coast of Florida northward to South Carolina. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3,

3 National Hurricane Center Forecast (Maximum sustained winds listed near times) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3,

4 National Hurricane Center Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3,

5 Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3,

6 Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3,

7 Weather Prediction Center Rainfall Potential Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3,

8 Current Spaghetti Model Output Data (Latest forecast computer model runs from the National Hurricane Center) Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Friday morning after 5:00 AM Central Time. Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3,

9 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3,

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