#FakeWeather, Cape Fear Hurricanes, and the 2018 Hurricane Season Outlook. Building a Weather-Ready Nation

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1 #FakeWeather, Cape Fear Hurricanes, and the 2018 Hurricane Season Outlook

2 The #FakeWeather Epidemic

3 #FakeWeather Expect it Before, During, & After an Event Before an event the spread of highly uncertain long range models may degrade the public trust in the more accurate short term forecasts and warnings During an event an increase in old repurposed pictures from past event are shared as if they were current events After an event doctored pics are used to show a false interpretation of impacts from a storm Purportedly a pic of the after effects of Hurricane Harvey in Houston

4 #FakeWeather Types Malicious Informers -they purposefully create false information to cause confusion & panic Meme Makers - typically create memes to make light of a situation, but they often mimic news outlets Hijackers -make information appear as if it is coming from a credible source, they hijack news station logos and put them on images

5 #FakeWeather Types Continued Prankers -regurgitate pictures from past weather events and share them, (not always passed along by the original person posting the image) Image taken from web showing tornado in OK in 2016 Wannabees weather enthusiasts who only share the worst case scenario & it goes viral IE. Billy Bob s Weather Page, etc Modifiers -take actual pictures of an event and photoshop/modify them It s unfortunate, but people will share weather info without confirming the source! In essence, false information can ultimately impede our unified messaging.

6 #FakeWeather How to spot them Tips from the Capital Weather Gang at the Washington Post include: Is the time of day correct, shadows, sun location? Is it the correct season? ie. green leaves on tree in picture for a winter tornado Is the image correct geographically? I.E. mountains in the background of a Carolina Beach waterspout Does the image match the type of weather expected? I.E. supercell or shelf cloud being reported as the approach of Hurricane x Did the social media account just pop-up

7 #FakeWeather What can you do to help! Beware before you share! - Only share information that originates from an original/credible source, if you are not sure, then take the extra moment to verify the source s social media account Prepare for the fake shares - Make sure that your staff and constituents are aware of the potential spread of #FakeWeather before, during, and after, especially large impact events watch when the hype begins and be able to direct people to credible sources. Do your best to re-direct Consider posting a credible link directly into a #FakeWeather thread to provide clarification Just because you can doesn t mean you should! - Resist posting and sharing computer model graphics and other information that is hype, especially without providing meaningful context. Bottomline - We all need to work together to share a consistent/unified message.

8 Let s get back to reality Hurricane Season is here and the core of hurricane season is only a few months away. Southeast NC has experienced explosive growth more and more of the population has not experienced a major hurricane. Last year we were lucky, others were not (Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico) Hurricane Harvey NBC5 Hurricane Irma WeatherNation Hurricane Maria CNBC Are we ready if this is the year a Hazel-like storm returns?

9 Brunswick County: All Hurricanes (since 1850 passing within 75 nm of St. James)

10 Hurricane Hazel Cat. 4 Hazel (135 mph) makes landfall at Calabash, NC. Wind gust of 98 mph recorded at ILM. Pressure of 938 mb measured in Hazel s eye by the fishing vessel Judy Ninda 1600 UTC Oct 15

11 Hurricane Hazel Population shift: I.e. Brunswick County 19k people in 1950, as of 2010 census 107k people in the county Hurricane Ike 2008 (15-20 storm surge) Brunswick County Impacts -352 out of 357 homes on Long Beach were destroyed -All 200 houses on Holden Beach were destroyed -$5 million in damage (1954 dollars) to Southport -20 ft grassy dunes were leveled to flat areas of sand -No houses remained in Ocean Isle Beach

12 St. James Plantation: Hazel inundation Areas

13 Hurricane Return Period Last Direct Impact Hurricane Matthew 2016 Source: NHC

14 Major Hurricane Return Period (Cat 3 or Higher) Hurricanes Last Direct Cat 3 or greater Impact Hurricane Fran 1996 (22 years ago!) Source: NHC

15 Hurricane Fran ( 96) Category 3 landfall with 115 mph winds at Cape Fear. Gusts measured at 105 mph in Southport, 100 mph in Greenville, 86 mph in Wilmington, 79 mph in Raleigh. Responsible for 26 deaths and over 4 billion dollars in damage. Both piers on Wrightsville Beach destroyed. Storm tide reached 12 feet on Topsail Island with hundreds of homes destroyed. Second lowest pressure on record in Wilmington with millibars

16 Atlantic Ocean water temperatures Roughly 30 years of warm water, followed by roughly 30 years of cold water Graphic originally from hockeyschtick.blogspot.com

17 1880s/90s: Hurricanes 1950s: Heat, Hurricanes 90s/2000s: Heat, Hurricanes 1900s/10s: Cold, Snow 1970s/80s: Cold, Snow Atlantic Ocean water temperatures Roughly 30 years of warm water, followed by roughly 30 years of cold water Graphic originally from hockeyschtick.blogspot.com

18 Why are we at risk??: 3 Main Tracks L H H

19 Why are we at risk??: 3 Main Tracks L H

20 Why are we at risk??: 3 Main Tracks L H H

21 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Nino La Nina Anomaly

22 ENSO and Atlantic Hurricanes Last 6 El Nino Years (2015, 2009, 2006, 2004, 2002, 1997) 65 named storms 28 became hurricanes 15 became major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or >) Last 6 La Nina Years (2016, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2000, 1999) 95 named storms 48 became hurricanes 23 became major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or >) Last 6 Neutral Years (2017, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2008, 2005) 102 named storms 51 became hurricanes 22 became major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or >)

23 Hurricane Outlook Performance 30 NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Performance 25 # of Named Storms ENSO EN N EN N EN LN N EN LN LN N = NOAA Forecast Range N N EN LN N

24 What is ENSO Projected to be this Hurricane Season? El Nino Neutral La Nina

25 The Outlook

26 National Weather Service Wilmington NC Some common myths or misperceptions I m not evacuating unless it s a Category 3 or higher I don t have to worry about storm surge since it is only a beach thing It s only a Category 1 storm! I saw on Facebook <insert whatever nightmare scenario you can think of> I ve been through a Category 4 before We are okay, the new forecast has us out of the cone! They say it s not going to be a bad year

27 Increased Frequency of Catastrophic Weather Events in Carolinas Hurricane Matthew was the fourth in a series of devastating flood events in the Carolinas since 1999 Hurricane Floyd (1999) September Tropical Fire Hose (2010) Historic SC Floods October (2015) Hurricane Matthew (2016)

28 St. James Plantation: Hazel inundation Areas