Preliminary Assessment of 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Phil Klotzbach. Department of Atmospheric Science. Phil Klotzbach

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1 Atlantic Basin Basin Tropical Seasonal Cyclone Hurricane Climatology Prediction and Preliminary Assessment of 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado Phil Klotzbach State University Florida Governor s Hurricane Conference Geophysical Vortices May 18, 2018

2 Introduction Outline Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change 2017 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season 2018 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Outlook New Products

In Memory of Bill Gray (1929-2016) Klotzbach, P. J., J. C. L. Chan, P. J. Fitzpatrick, W.

Gray: His contributions to the knowledge of tropical meteorology and

3 In Memory of Bill Gray ( ) Klotzbach, P. J., J. C. L. Chan, P. J. Fitzpatrick, W. M. Frank, C. W. Landsea, and J. L. McBride, 2017: The science of William M. Gray: His contributions to the knowledge of tropical meteorology and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 98,

4 Introducing New Co-Author Michael Bell - Received M.S. in Atmospheric Science from Colorado State University (2006) - Received Ph.D. in Meteorology from Naval Postgraduate School (2010) - Joined faculty at Colorado State University in Specializes in study of mesoscale structure of tropical cyclones from genesis to extratropical transition - Recipient of Presidential Early Career Award

6 It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future HOWEVER You can see a lot by looking Yogi Berra

7 August October SSTs: Ten Most Active minus Ten Least Active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons since 1950

8 Vertical Wind Profile in the Caribbean and western part of Main Development Region (10-20 N; W) a b TROPOPAUSE (16 km) a fewer TCs (El Niño) b more TCs (La Niña) Zonal Wind (u) ms -1

10 Klotzbach, P. J., S. G. Bowen, R. Pielke Jr., and M. M. Bell, 2018: Continental United States landfall frequency and associated damage: Observations and future risks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.

11 US Population by Region

12 Square Footage of Average Single-Family Home by Region

14 1926 Great Miami Hurricane - >$200 Billion Economic Damage (if it were to occur today)

21 Emanuel et al. (2017)

22 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

23 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecast Parameter Observed 2017 Atlantic TC Activity Atlantic Full Season Median 2017 as Percentage of Full Season Median 2017 All-Time (Since 1851) Full Season Rank All-Time Record (Year) Named Storms (NS) % T-9 28 (2005) Named Storm Days (NSD) % T (2005) Hurricanes (H) % T-8 15 (2005) Hurricane Days (HD) % (1893 & 1995) Major Hurricanes (MH) % T-3 7 (1961 & 2005) Major Hurricane Days (MHD) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) % (1961) % (1933)

25 ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS FOR 2017 Forecast Parameter and Median (in parentheses) 6 April 2017 Update 1 June 2017 Update 5 July 2017 Update 4 August 2017 Observed 2017 Total % of Median Named Storms (NS) (12.0) % Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1) % Hurricanes (H) (6.5) % Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3) % Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) % Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9) % Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92) Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%) % %

32 August-October 2017 minus August-October (2006 to 2016)

33 Hurricane Harvey

34 Hurricane Harvey Notable Records Texas Landfall Intensity: 115 Knots, 938 mb - $90-$150 Billion USD in economic damage - First Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in Texas since Carla (1961) and in the United States since Charley (2004) - Ended the longest-running mainland U.S. landfalling major hurricane drought at 4323 days (Wilma-2005) rainfall in Nederland, TX shattering the prior continental and U.S. records for hurricane-related precipitation. Prior record was 48 for continental U.S. (set in Texas with TS Amelia) and 52 for entire U.S. (Hiki- 1950)

36 Hurricane Irma

37 Storm Records Hurricane Irma Notable Records mph max winds strongest Atlantic storm on record outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean days as Cat. 5 hurricane tied with the Cuba Hurricane of 1932 for longest-lived Atlantic Cat. 5 hurricane on record Accumulated Cyclone Energy units generated the second most in the satellite era trailing Ivan with 70.4 ACE in 2004

38 Landfall Facts Hurricane Irma Notable Records - >$50 Billion USD in economic damage - Strongest storm (180 mph max winds) on record to impact Leeward Islands previous strongest were David (1979) & Lake Okeechobee (1928) 160 mph - First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since Mainland US Landfall: 115 knots, 931 mb Tied with Carla (1961) for 10 th lowest landfall pressure for continental US hurricane on record - First time two Category 4 hurricanes (along with Harvey) to make mainland US landfall in same year

Myers Beach Naples Everglades City Everglades City 5 pm Saturday,

39 What Could Have Happened Irma Advisory 43 Forecast Track What Did Happen Irma Actual Track Ft. Myers Beach Naples Ft. Myers Beach Naples Everglades City Everglades City 5 pm Saturday, September 9 Landfall Marco Island 3:30 pm Sunday, September 10 National Hurricane Center

40 Hurricane Maria

41 Hurricane Maria Notable Records - >60 Billion USD in economic damage mb lifetime lowest central pressure lowest in eastern Caribbean on record - First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in Dominica on record - First Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1932 (San Ciprian Hurricane) - Strongest hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1928 (San Felipe Segundo Hurricane)

42 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Initial Outlook

43 2018 FORECAST AS OF 5 APRIL 2018 Forecast Parameter Statistical Forecast Final Forecast Median Named Storms (NS) Named Storm Days (NSD) Hurricanes (H) Hurricane Days (HD) Major Hurricanes (MH) Major Hurricane Days (MHD) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)

44 April Forecast Predictors March SLP ECMWF SST Forecast 4 ` 3 ` February- March SLP 2 1` ` EQ. Jan-Mar ` SST

46 BEST ANALOG YEARS FOR 2018 (APRIL FORECAST) NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC MEAN Forecast

49 El Niño La Niña

50 El Niño La Niña

52 Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific since May 2017

53 Observed and Predicted Low-Level Winds Averaged Across the Equatorial Region

54 Late November 2017 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

55 December 2017 through mid-may 2018 Sea Level Pressure Anomalies

56 Late March 2018 minus late November 2017 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

57 Late March Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

58 April through Mid May 2018 Sea Level Pressure Anomalies

59 Mid May minus late March 2018 Anomalous SST Change

60 Mid May Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

61 NOAA Climate Model Seasonal Forecast

62 2018 Forecast Schedule Date 5 April 31 May 2 July 2 Aug Seasonal Forecast X X X X

63 2018 PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL IN EACH OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS (20 th CENTURY PROBABILITIES IN PARENTHESES) 1) Entire U.S. coastline 63% (52%) 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida 39% (31%) 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville 38% (30%) 4) Caribbean (10-20 N, W) 52% (42%)

64 Landfalling Hurricane Web Application Currently Available at the following URL: In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory Bridgewater State University, Bridgewater MA

Florida 62% (51%) 27% (21%) Louisiana 38% (30%) 15% (12%) Massachusetts 9%

65 2018 Probabilities (20 th Century Probabilities in Parentheses) State Hurricane Impact Prob. MH Impact Prob. Florida 62% (51%) 27% (21%) Louisiana 38% (30%) 15% (12%) Massachusetts 9% (7%) 3% (2%) Mississippi 14% (11%) 6% (4%) New York 10% (8%) 4% (3%) North Carolina 36% (28%) 10% (8%) Texas 42% (33%) 15% (12%)

MH within 100 Miles The Bahamas 62% (51%) 38% (30%)

Jamaica 32% (25%) 15% (11%) Mexico 68% (57%) 29% (23%)

66 2018 Probabilities (20 th Century Probabilities in Parentheses) Country/Island Hurricane within 100 Miles MH within 100 Miles The Bahamas 62% (51%) 38% (30%) Cuba 63% (52%) 36% (28%) Haiti 35% (27%) 17% (13%) Jamaica 32% (25%) 15% (11%) Mexico 68% (57%) 29% (23%) Puerto Rico 37% (29%) 17% (13%) US Virgin Islands 38% (30%) 16% (12%)

68 Irma Nate Harvey

69 New Products Real-Time Global Tropical Cyclone Statistics Website:

70 Contributing Forecast Groups

71 New Products Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Compilation Website

72 Arago s Admonition: Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientific men who have regard for their reputations venture to predict the weather.

73 Contact Info: Phil Klotzbach Web: Facebook: CSU Tropical Meteorology Project

Lessons Learned from Hurricane Harvey and Irma

EOL Visit to NSF 3 March 2016 Lessons Learned from Hurricane Harvey and Irma Wen-Chau Lee National Center for Atmospheric Research 23 November 2017 Outline: Meteorological elements of the active 2017 Atlantic