El Niño & Expected Florida Severe Weather
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1 El Niño & Expected Florida Severe Weather Brady Smith, AICP, CFM Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council ONE BAY Resilient Communities Working Group Meeting February 5, 2016
2 El Niño & Expected Florida Severe Weather Presentation prepared by: Dan Noah NWS Ruskin El Nino StoryMap
3 What is El Niño?
4 What is El Niño? El Niño is Spanish for The Niño
5 What is El Niño? Warm Water
6 The Cycle of El Niño/La Niña Water temperature departure from normal in degrees Celsius El Niño La Niña Natural Cycle El Niño typically strongest during the winter To be classified as an El Niño, the water temperature must be >= +0.5 degree departure from normal for 3 months
7 Where Did El Niño Get It s Name? During the 1600s, South American fishermen noticed cycles of unusually warm, nutrient poor water, resulting in poor fishing El Niño means The Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish chosen based on the time of year (around December) when the warm waters events occurred.
8 How Water Temperature Influence Fishing
9 El Niño Changes Location of Jet Stream
10 El Niño vs La Niña Jet Stream Location Jet stream over Florida with more active weather Jet stream north of Florida with less active weather
11
12 Comparison of Winter Storm Tracks
13 Violent Tornadoes in Florida
14 Expected Florida River Flood Events per Year Strong El Nino Moderate El Nino Weak El Nino Neutral Conditions Weak, Moderate, and Strong La Nina
15 Probability of Flooding for Specific Locations
16 January 9, 2016 Cape Coral Tornado EF-2 Tornado (132 mph) Path 3.4 miles long 182 yards wide 3 injuries 178 structures damaged $5.5 million in damage
17 New Construction, Moved in 1 Month Ago
18 January 15, 2016 Fort Myers Tornado Warning
19 Wireless Emergency Alert FCC/FEMA Initiative Free Available since 2012 Cell phones auto enrolled Limited to 90 characters All phones connected to a tower within the warning receive message at same time
20 Wireless Emergency Alert NWS Alerts Limited to Some of the Other Alerts Presidential Alert Immediate Evacuation Warning Civil Emergency Message Law Enforcement Warning Shelter in Place Warning 911 Outage Emergency
21 Jan 17, 2016 Sarasota F2 Tornado 127 mph 2 injuries
22 Jan 17, 2016 Duette F2 Tornado 127 mph 2 fatalities, 4 injuries
23 Central Florida Tornado Outbreak February 23, 1998 Tornadoes: 12 Deaths: 42, Injuries: 259, Damage: $107.3 million
24 El Niño Florida Impact Awareness Potential for historic El Niño this winter and upcoming spring, even stronger than the 1997/98 El Niño increased chances for strong-to-violent tornadoes and tornado outbreaks increased chances for episodes of heavy rain and river flooding Given that the previous eight winters in Florida experienced storminess much below normal, the likely transition to a very active season may come as a surprise to those who are unaware
25 Increased Winter/Spring Severe Weather Florida s two deadliest tornado outbreaks 2/22-23/98: 42 fatalities in Kissimmee 2/02/2007: 21 fatalities in Lady Lake record rain and river flooding
26 February 22-23, p.m. 3 a.m. Osceola / Orange / Seminole Counties 42 fatalities (3 F3 Tornadoes)
27 February 2, a.m. 3 a.m. Lake / Volusia Counties 21 fatalities (2 EF3 Tornadoes)
28 La Niña vs. El Niño Tornadoes in Florida Grey: Weak Red: Strong-to-Violent
29 How Many Days of Violent Weather Can We Expect? Pattern is most pronounced from January-April
30 Florida Societal Considerations Increasing Vulnerability million new residents since 1998 outbreak! Many unaware of Florida (winter) severe weather risks Time of Day High percentage of mobile homes Much lower threshold for damage High winter occupancy Greater casualty rate Overnight Tornadoes Lower perception of threat Decreased Awareness (asleep) Favored time period
31 Some Tornadoes are Worse Than Others Tornadoes in Study Area (north central U.S.) 13% were EF2-EF5, 262 fatalities (97%) 87% were EF0-EF1, 7 fatalities (3%) Local destruction shown below Lady Lake Feb 2, killed, 76 injured Kissimmee Feb 22-23, killed, 260 injured
32 Impact Based Warnings (IBW) We are going to ring the bell louder for the worst storms Provide additional information within our warnings to allow all the various warning notification systems to ring the bell louder Began October 1, 2015
33 Tornado Warning EF0 or EF1
34 Tornado Warning EF2 or Stronger
35 Public Awareness and Safety Monitor local television and radio for severe weather situations Have multiple ways to receive timely weather warnings NOAA Weather radio Wireless Emergency Alert Reverse 911 Smartphone App
36 Free FEMA App
37 What Can You Do? Pick an employee who is into weather to be an Ambassador for a Weather Ready Nation The Ambassador will receive 1 or 2 s a month with resources to promote hazardous weather awareness and preparedness to those in your organization and can be a resource for your social media posts.
38 A Few of our Local Ambassadors Pinellas County Sheriff Port Tampa Bay Saint Pete Astronomy Club University of South Florida Valencia Lakes Home Owners Association WUSF Public Radio WRMD Telemundo Tampa Fox 13 WTVT-TV Tampa Bay
39 NWS Tampa Bay Social Media NWSTampaBay NWSTampa Weather-Ready Nation
40 Pinellas County El Niño Web Page NWSTampaBay Weather-Ready Nation
41
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