Lessons Learned from Hurricane Harvey and Irma
|
|
- Quentin Booth
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 EOL Visit to NSF 3 March 2016 Lessons Learned from Hurricane Harvey and Irma Wen-Chau Lee National Center for Atmospheric Research 23 November 2017
2 Outline: Meteorological elements of the active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season A brief review of Hurricane Harvey and Irma Notable records Satellite and coastal radar observations Damages wind, rainfall, and flood NOAA s forecast Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, and Weather Prediction Center Warning and emergency management This talk is not focused on global warming and climate change on tropical cyclone s frequency, intensity, and rainfall This talk will reveal challenges on tropical cyclone prediction even with the best observing facilities and forecasting models affecting emergency management and general public 2
3 Harvey Irma Maria
4 4
5 2017 Atlantic Basin Wind Shear and SST
6 Forecast Parameter Observed 2017 Atlantic TC Activity Atlantic Full Season Median 2017 % of Full Season Median 2017 All- Time (Since 1851) Full Season Rank All-Time Record (Year) Named Storms (NS) % T (2005) Named Storm Days (NSD) % (2005) Hurricanes (H) % T-8 15 (2005) Hurricane Days (HD) % (1893 & 1995) Major Hurricanes (MH) % T-3 7 (1961 & 2005) Major Hurricane Days (MHD) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Unit: 10 4 kn 2, every 6 hours for the storm > 35 knots 2017 Atlantic TC Activity Thru October % (1961) % (1933) Hyperactive season: ACE > 153 Above-normal season: ACE > 111 Near-normal season: 111 > ACE > 66 Below-normal season: 66 > ACE Mean ACE ( ): ~93.2 Irma: 66.6, Ranked 2 nd Maria: 44.6, Ranked 18 th 93.2
7 Hurricane Harvey Notable Records Texas Landfall Intensity: 115 Knots, 938 mb - First Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in Texas since Carla (1961) and in the United States since Charley (2004) - Ended the longest-running mainland U.S. landfalling major hurricane drought at 4323 days (Wilma-2005) - Longest-lasting named storm on record after making hurricane landfall in Texas (117 hours). Prior record was Fern (1971) 54 hours rainfall in Nederland, TX shattering the prior continental and U.S. records for hurricane-related precipitation. Prior record was 48 for continental US (set in Texas with TS Amelia) and 52 for entire US (Hiki- 1950)
8 8
9 Harvey (2017) Flooding in the Houston Area Houston George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH)
10 Harvey (2017) WSR-88D August
11 Harvey (2017) Rainfall Prediction Day 2 24-hour Rainfall Valid 00Z 8/26-8/27/2017 Day 3 24-hour Rainfall Valid 00Z 8/27-8/28/2017 Day 3 24-hour Rainfall Valid 00Z 8/28-8/29/2017 NCEP 96-hour Rainfall Ending 12Z 8/30/2017
12 Harvey s Environment
13 What causes extreme rainfall? The heaviest precipitation occurs where the rainfall rate is the highest for the longest time C. F. Chappell R = I x D I = Ewq R = rainfall accumulation E = precipitation efficiency (m p /m in ) I = rainfall intensity w = vertical velocity D = rainfall duration q = water vapor 13
14 Ingredients-based approach (Doswell et al. 1996) D = L/C L = system length scale C = system speed I = Ewq E = precipitation efficiency (m p /m in ) w = vertical velocity q = water vapor
15 Irma Track and NHC Forecast Hurricane Irma History SST on Irma s Path 15
16 Hurricane Irma Notable Records Storm Records mph max winds strongest Atlantic storm on record outside of Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean days as Cat. 5 hurricane tied with the Cuba Hurricane of 1932 for longest-lived Atlantic Cat. 5 hurricane on record Accumulated Cyclone Energy units generated the second most in the satellite era trailing Ivan (2004) Generated enough Accumulated Cyclone Energy by itself to meet NOAA definition of an average full Atlantic hurricane season
17 Hurricane Irma Notable Records Landfall Records - Strongest storm (185 mph max winds) on record to impact Leeward Islands previous strongest were David (1979) & Lake Okeechobee (1928) 160 mph - First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in Bahamas since Andrew (1992) - First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since Mainland US Landfall: 115 knots, 929 mb Tied with Lake Okeechobee (1928) for 7 th lowest landfall pressure for US hurricane on record - First time two Category 4 hurricanes (along with Harvey) to make mainland US landfall in same year
18 Costliest Hurricanes in the US Hurricane Harvey $200bn 2017 Hurricane Irma $65bn 2017 Hurricane Maria (Puerto Rico) $95bn
19 FEMA s Actions: 19
20 20
21 Irma ECMWF-Ensemble 21
22 Comments about Irma s Probabilistic Forecast : What the changes in the Irma forecast illustrate nicely for me (from a somewhat theoretical decision theory point of view) is that a probabilistic forecast on its own, even a very good one, does not contain enough information for rational decision makers to make optimal decisions. What they need is additional information that indicates the sizes of possible future changes in the forecast. With that additional information someone considering evacuating can weigh up the pros and cons of evacuating now versus waiting for the next 1 or 2 two forecast cycles to see how the forecast develops. In a stable situation in which the forecast is unlikely to change, they might conclude they should evacuate now. In a volatile situation in which the forecast is likely to change, they might conclude (quite logically) that it makes more sense to postpone the decision to evacuate and see how the forecast develops first (since evacuation itself carries various risks, including evacuating into the path of the storm as we saw during Irma). 22
23 9/20/ /20/ /05/
24 Thank You!
25 Harvey s Eye at Landfall in Texas by a DOW Figure 1: Eyewall mesovortices as seen in reflectivity (left) and Doppler velocity (center). Red circles denote mesovortices and the yellow circle denotes the edge of the eye. Right: An example of a smaller, tornado-scale circulation (red) in the eyewall. Figure 2: Harvey. Localized damage observed near the DOW in Hurricane
26 (knots) Irma, Maximum Wind
27 Hurricane Maria Notable Records mb lifetime lowest central pressure lowest in eastern Caribbean on record - 53 mb pressure fall in 18 hours only Gilbert (1988), Rita (2005), Wilma (2005) & Ike (2008) have intensified more in satellite era (since 1966) - First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in Dominica on record - First Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1932 (San Ciprian Hurricane) - Strongest hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1928 (San Felipe Segundo Hurricane)
28
29 Irma
30 30
Preliminary Assessment of 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Phil Klotzbach. Department of Atmospheric Science. Phil Klotzbach
Atlantic Basin Basin Tropical Seasonal Cyclone Hurricane Climatology Prediction and Preliminary Assessment of 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado Phil
More information11/17/2017. Memorable Hurricanes of 2004 MET 4532
MET 4532 2004 Hurricane Season Lecture 31 & 32 2004, 2005, and After 17-20 November 2017 1 2 Memorable Hurricanes of 2004 Hurricane Dates Damage (US) Deaths (US) Charlie (4) 9-14 AUG $14B 10 Ivan (4) 2-24
More informationLECTURE #18: Hurricane Damage, Monitoring & Case Study
GEOL 0820 Ramsey Natural Disasters Spring, 2018 LECTURE #18: Hurricane Damage, Monitoring & Case Study Date: 27 March 2018 I. Exam II grades now posted online o high: 98, low: 46, average: 80 (~3 points
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2015
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2015 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More informationAnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Issued: April 10, 2018 by Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Director (Ag), Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) The *AnuMS (Antigua Met
More informationARUBA CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY 2017 PRECIPITATION
ARUBA CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY 2017 PRECIPITATION The total amount of rainfall recorded at Reina Beatrix International Airport for the year 2017 was 391.0 mm. This is 17.1 % below normal ( Figure 1 ). During
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18-31, 2017
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18-31, 2017 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-average amounts (>130%) of activity relative to
More informationAnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast : June 11, 2018 by Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Director (Ag), Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) The *AnuMS (Antigua Met Service)
More informationPRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response
PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 13 OCTOBER 26, 2017
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 13 OCTOBER 26, 2017 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-normal hurricane activity. (as of 13
More informationAre You Ready For Hurricane Season? 2018 Hurricane Talk B Y : S T O R M T E A M 8 M E T E O R O L O G I S T J U L I E P H I L L I P S
Are You Ready For Hurricane Season? 2018 Hurricane Talk B Y : S T O R M T E A M 8 M E T E O R O L O G I S T J U L I E P H I L L I P S About Me I am Currently a Weekday Meteorologist at WFLA Channel 8.
More informationAnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Issued: May 10, 2018 by Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Director (Ag), Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) The *AnuMS (Antigua Met
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2011
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2011 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (less than 70 percent)
More informationHurricane Wilma Post Storm Data Acquisition Estimated Peak Wind Analysis and Storm Tide Data. December 27, 2005
Hurricane Wilma Post Storm Data Acquisition Estimated Peak Wind Analysis and Storm Tide Data December 27, 2005 Hurricane Wilma was the sixth major hurricane of the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4-17, 2015
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4-17, 2015 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 25 OCTOBER 8, 2014
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 25 OCTOBER 8, 2014 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 10, 2018
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 10, 2018 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-normal amounts of hurricane activity,
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13-SEPTEMBER 26, 2018
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13-SEPTEMBER 26, 2018 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by near-normal amounts of hurricane activity.
More informationAgricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 17, 2006 THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC HURRICANES AND SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 17, 2006 THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC HURRICANES AND SEASONAL PREDICTIONS Gerald Bell Meteorologist, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA,
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-average amounts (greater than 130 percent)
More informationChapter 24 Tropical Cyclones
Chapter 24 Tropical Cyclones Tropical Weather Systems Tropical disturbance a cluster of thunderstorms about 250 to 600 km in diameter, originating in the tropics or sub-tropics Tropical depression a cluster
More informationThe 2009 Hurricane Season Overview
The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview Jae-Kyung Schemm Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP 1 Overview outline 1. Current status for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific basins
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-average amounts (greater than 130 percent)
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 29, 2018
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 29, 2018 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-normal amounts of hurricane activity. (as of 16
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 1 SEPTEMBER 14, 2015
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 1 SEPTEMBER 14, 2015 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More information2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts
More information2017 Hurricane Season and Beyond
2017 Hurricane Season and Beyond Ken Graham National Hurricane Center Building a Weather-Ready Nation Much of U.S. Coast Saw Tropical Wind Watches or Warnings 2017 Hurricane Season Facts and Figures 7th
More informationFrank Revitte National Weather Service. Weather Forecast Office New Orleans/Baton Rouge
Frank Revitte National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office New Orleans/Baton Rouge Above normal activity 17 Total Named Storms 7 Tropical Storms 4 Hurricanes 6 Major Hurricanes Not the most active,
More informationWeather Research Center
Weather Research Center 3227 Audley Houston, Texas 77098 Phone: 713-529-3076 Fax: 713-528-3538 E-mail: wrc@wxresearch.org Press Release For Immediate Release November 29, 2005 For Information Contact:
More information2A.5 A Climatology of Catastrophic Flooding in Texas From Tropical Cyclones Derek Ortt and Cameron Self StormGeo Inc, Houston, Texas
2A.5 A Climatology of Catastrophic Flooding in Texas From Tropical Cyclones Derek Ortt and Cameron Self StormGeo Inc, Houston, Texas 1. INTRODUCTION In August 2017, Hurricane Harvey produced catastrophic
More informationClaim: Global warming is causing more hurricanes and stronger hurricanes REBUTTAL
Claim: Global warming is causing more hurricanes and stronger hurricanes REBUTTAL There has been no detectable long- term trend in the number and intensity of hurricane activity globally. The activity
More informationHURRICANES. Source:
HURRICANES Source: http://www.dc.peachnet.edu/~pgore/students/w97/matheson/hpage.htm What is a hurricane? Violent cyclonic storm that develops in the tropical region Wind speeds are > 74 mph Source: http://www.google.com/imgres?hl=en&sa=x&biw=1920&bih=955&tbm=
More informationSUMMARY OF 2017 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHORS SEASONAL AND TWO-WEEK FORECASTS
SUMMARY OF 2017 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHORS SEASONAL AND TWO-WEEK FORECASTS The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was an extraordinarily active one, with levels of activity
More informationAnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season : August 12, 2018 by Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Director (Ag), Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) The *AnuMS (Antigua Met Service) is
More informationTropical Update. 5 AM EDT Wednesday, September 6, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Tropical Storm Jose, and Tropical Storm Katia
Tropical Update 5 AM EDT Wednesday, September 6, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Tropical Storm Jose, and Tropical Storm Katia This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by average amounts (70-130 percent) of activity
More informationCh. 11: Hurricanes. Be able to. Define what hurricane is. Identify the life and death of a hurricane. Identify the ways we track hurricanes.
Ch. 11: Hurricanes Be able to Define what hurricane is. Identify the life and death of a hurricane. Identify the ways we track hurricanes. What are Hurricanes? Smaller than mid-latitude cyclones. Don t
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by average amounts (70-130 percent) of activity
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More informationSTORM HISTORY FOR COLLIER COUNTY
STORM HISTORY FOR COLLIER COUNTY In 1960, when hurricane 'Donna' struck, there were approximately 15,500 people living full time in Collier County. Today there are more than 330,000 residents, most of
More informationDYNAMIC POSITIONING CONFERENCE October 7-8, Operations. Using GIS to Understand Hurricane Windfields in the Gulf of Mexico
Return to Session Directory DYNAMIC POSITIONING CONFERENCE October 7-8, 2008 Operations Using GIS to Understand Hurricane Windfields in the Gulf of Mexico Jill F. Hasling and Maureen T. Maiuri Weather
More informationHurricane Harvey the Name says it all. by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service office State College, PA
Hurricane Harvey the Name says it all by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service office State College, PA 16803. 1. Overview Hurricane Harvey crossed the Texas coast (Fig. 1) as a category
More information(April 7, 2010, Wednesday) Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Part 2
Lecture #17 (April 7, 2010, Wednesday) Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Part 2 Hurricane Katrina August 2005 All tropical cyclone tracks (1945-2006). Hurricane Formation While moving westward, tropical disturbances
More informationStandardizing hurricane size descriptors for broadcast to the public
Standardizing hurricane size descriptors for broadcast to the public Lori Drake, Hurricane Roadmap Project AMS 40th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology August 22-24, 2012, Boston, MA, Operational Forecasting
More informationInner core dynamics: Eyewall Replacement and hot towers
Inner core dynamics: Eyewall Replacement and hot towers FIU Undergraduate Hurricane Internship Lecture 4 8/13/2012 Why inner core dynamics is important? Current TC intensity and structure forecasts contain
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 14 AUGUST 27, 2014
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 14 AUGUST 27, 2014 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (less than 70 percent)
More information2008 Hurricane Caravan. Daniel Noah Meteorologist National Weather Service x1 May 22, 2008
2008 Hurricane Caravan Daniel Noah Meteorologist National Weather Service daniel.noah@noaa.gov, 813-645-2323 x1 May 22, 2008 National Weather Service We never close! Open 24 hours a day 365 days per year
More information2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SUMMARY. Weather Research Center Houston, Texas
2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SUMMARY Weather Research Center Houston, Texas Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline Houston, Texas 77004 Phone: 713-529-3076 Fax: 713-528-3538 E-mail: wrc@wxresearch.org 2006 Atlantic
More informationChapter 16, Part Hurricane Paths. 2. Hurricane Paths. Hurricane Paths and Damage
Chapter 16, Part 2 Hurricane Paths and Damage 1. Hurricane Paths Start over tropical water except South Atlantic and eastern South Atlantic, where water is too cold. Initially steered by easterly winds
More informationTuesday, September 13, 16
Weather Weather State Objectives 4.c, 4.d, 4.h. Discussion What are some ways in which weather affects your everyday life? Discussion What are some ways in which weather affects your everyday life? What
More informationApril Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018
April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 5 th April 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationAt the Midpoint of the 2008
At the Midpoint of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Editor s note: It has been an anxious couple of weeks for those with financial interests in either on- or offshore assets in the Gulf of Mexico and
More informationHurricane Tracking Lab
Hurricane Tracking Lab Background: Hurricanes are one of nature s most powerful disasters. To equal the power of a hurricane, one would have to set off about a thousand nuclear devices per second for as
More informationAugust Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015 Issued: 5 th August 2015 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationName Earth Science Pd. Hurricanes. Directions: Read the information, view diagrams and answer the questions in the worksheet.
Hurricanes Directions: Read the information, view diagrams and answer the questions in the worksheet. Hurricane Basics The ingredients for a hurricane include a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm tropical
More informationKevin E Trenberth NCAR
Attribution of Recent Increases in Atlantic Hurricane Activity Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Issues for detection and attribution of changes in hurricanes What has happened? How good is the observational record?
More informationCaribbean Tropical Cyclone Modeling
Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Modeling Filmon Habte, PhD 2018 RAA Catastrophe Risk Management Conference Orlando, Florida February 14, 2018 Agenda Hurricane risk in the Caribbean 2017 hurricane season Lessons
More information2014 Emergency Preparedness Conference. Tuesday, June 3, 2014 The Wildwoods Convention Center 4501 Boardwalk Wildwood, New Jersey 08260
2014 Emergency Preparedness Conference Tuesday, June 3, 2014 The Wildwoods Convention Center 4501 Boardwalk Wildwood, New Jersey 08260 A Look back at Winter 2013-2014 A Look ahead to the 2014 Hurricane
More informationFORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2015
FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2015 We continue to foresee a below-average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. A moderate to strong El Niño is underway,
More information30 If Vmax > 150, HSI intensity pts = 25
Hurricane Severity Index: A New Way of Estimating a Tropical Cyclone s Destructive Potential 1. Introduction Christopher G. Hebert*, Robert A. Weinzapfel*, Mark A. Chambers* Impactweather, Inc., Houston,
More informationClimate Variability and El Niño
Climate Variability and El Niño David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University UF IFAS Extenstion IST January 17, 2017 The El
More informationWeekend Outlook Belize, Central America Valid for: Friday until Monday, May 25-28, 2012
Weekend Outlook Belize, Central America Valid for: Friday until Monday, May 25-28, 2012 RFrutos Synopsis: Conditions this past week improved by Wednesday as a surface low and trough producing the showery
More informationExtreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT NESC, Saratoga, NY
Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT http://alanbetts.com NESC, Saratoga, NY March 10, 2018 Increases in Extreme Weather Last decade: lack
More informationWEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK BELIZE, CENTRAL AMERICA
WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK BELIZE, CENTRAL AMERICA PERIOD: Friday, July 13 until Monday, July 16, 2012 DATE ISSUED: Friday, June 13, 2012, 9:00 am RFrutos SYNOPSIS: A weak pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean
More informationWEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK BELIZE, CENTRAL AMERICA
WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK BELIZE, CENTRAL AMERICA PERIOD: Sunday, June 17 until Monday, June 25, 2012 DATE ISSUED: Sunday, June 17, 2012; 3:00 pm RFrutos EcoSolutions & Services SYNOPSIS: An upper level trough
More information2004 Hurricane Season: Climate Overview and Lessons Learned
2004 Hurricane Season: Climate Overview and Lessons Learned Mark Saunders, PhD (Presenter: Milan Simic,, PhD, Benfield) Lead Scientist, Tropical Storm Risk Benfield Hazard Research Centre University College
More informationExtreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S.
Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University March 7, 2016 Causes of Extreme Rainfall
More informationObserved Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty
Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty David R. Easterling National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina Overview Some examples of observed climate
More informationGC Briefing. Weather Sentinel Tropical Storm Michael. Status at 8 AM EDT (12 UTC) Today (NHC) Discussion. October 11, 2018
GC Briefing Weather Sentinel Tropical Storm Michael October 11, 2018 After making landfall as a high-end category-4 hurricane on the Florida Panhandle, Michael weakened to tropical storm status early this
More informationAn Assessment of the Climatology of Florida Hurricane-Induced Tornadoes (HITs): Technology versus Meteorology
5218 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E VOLUME 24 An Assessment of the Climatology of Florida Hurricane-Induced Tornadoes (HITs): Technology versus Meteorology ERNEST M. AGEE AND ALYSSA HENDRICKS Department
More informationNOAA Storm Surge Modeling Gaps and Priorities
NOAA Storm Surge Modeling Gaps and Priorities HFIP Meeting November 9 th, 2017 Laura Paulik Alaka NHC Storm Surge Unit Introduction to Probabilistic Storm Surge P-Surge is based on an ensemble of Sea,
More informationCanes on Canes: Keeping South Florida Prepared During the Calm Before the Storm. Matt Onderlinde and Pete Finocchio
Canes on Canes: Keeping South Florida Prepared During the Calm Before the Storm Matt Onderlinde and Pete Finocchio Outline The Science of Hurricanes Why and When South Floridians Must Be Weather-Ready
More informationOutlook 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Kevin Lipton, Ingrid Amberger National Weather Service Albany, New York
Outlook 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Kevin Lipton, Ingrid Amberger National Weather Service Albany, New York Summary 2007 Hurricane Season Two hurricanes made landfall in the Atlantic Basin at category-5
More informationApril Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016
April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 Issued: 5 th April 2016 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationAugust Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012 Issued: 6 th August 2012 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationHURRICANES. The History, Structure, Development, and Destruction. Source:
HURRICANES The History, Structure, Development, and Destruction Source: http://www.dc.peachnet.edu/~pgore/students/w97/matheson/hpage.htm Hurricane Sandy was the deadliest and most destructive tropical
More informationDaily Operations Briefing. Thursday, September 21, :30 a.m. EDT
Daily Operations Briefing Thursday, September 21, 2017 8:30 a.m. EDT Significant Activity Sep 20-21 Significant Events: Response for Hurricane Maria Tropical Activity: Atlantic Tropical Storm Jose; Hurricane
More informationContinuity in the Face of Hurricanes: What Every Business Needs To Know. Cameron Self, Tropical Meteorologist. StormGeo
Continuity in the Face of Hurricanes: What Every Business Needs To Know Cameron Self, Tropical Meteorologist. StormGeo A Hurricane is a Big Heat Engine Forming over warm tropical waters, wind speeds range
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com SEPTEMBER 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The contiguous
More informationWeather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio
Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Outline A Look Back At 2014 Spring 2015 So Far El Niño Update Climate Prediction
More informationHurricane Science Tutorial. Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center, MIT
Hurricane Science Tutorial Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center, MIT Why Should You Care? Forecasting Much progress in social science of response to warnings, requests to evacuate, etc. Forecasters are ambassadors
More informationNational Hurricane Center Products. Jack Beven National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center Products Jack Beven National Hurricane Center Florida Governor s Hurricane Conference 11 May 2014 NHC Tropical Cyclone Products NHC provides the big picture that complements and
More informationSummary of 2004 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season and Verification of Authors Seasonal Forecasts
Summary of 2004 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season and Verification of Authors Seasonal Forecasts Issued: 31st January 2005 by Drs Mark Saunders and Adam Lea Benfield Hazard Research Centre, UCL (University
More informationLecture #18 (April 12, 2010, Monday) Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Part 3. Hurricane Floyd September 15, 1999
Lecture #18 (April 12, 2010, Monday) Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Part 3 Hurricane Floyd September 15, 1999 Tropical Cyclone Names Names are given to distinguish storms and for ease of communication. Names
More informationand Weather extremes Tropical cyclones Today and in the Future Greg Holland c3we.ucar.edu
Tropical cyclones and Weather extremes Today and in the Future c3we.ucar.edu Greg Holland (gholland@ucar.edu) Supported by NSF, Willis Re, IAG, and Zurich Insurance 1 Topics State of the Climate and its
More informationHurricane Risk: Importance of Climate Time Scale and Uncertainty
Hurricane Risk: Importance of Climate Time Scale and Uncertainty FCHLPM Workshop Peter S. Dailey, Ph.D. July 23-24, 2009 2009 AIR WORLDWIDE CORPORATION 1 Agenda Importance of Understanding Climate Change,
More informationPre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018
Pre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 30 th May 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),
More informationJuly Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018
July Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 5 th July 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),
More informationTropical Update. 5 PM EDT Thursday, September 7, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, and Hurricane Katia
Tropical Update 5 PM EDT Thursday, September 7, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, and Hurricane Katia This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational
More informationTropical Update. 5 PM EDT Sunday, September 10, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, Tropical Wave (60%)
Tropical Update 5 PM EDT Sunday, September 10, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, Tropical Wave (60%) This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational
More informationApril Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019
April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019 Issued: 5 th April 2019 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),
More informationTropical Update. 5 PM EDT Thursday, August 27, 2015 Tropical Storm Erika
Tropical Update 5 PM EDT Thursday, August 27, 2015 Tropical Storm Erika This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational and situational awareness
More informationHurricanes and Climate Change: Expectations versus Observations
Hurricanes and Climate Change: Expectations versus Observations 15 June, 2010 Lloyd s Market Academy Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center, Miami, USA Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov How is global warming affecting:
More informationTropical Update. 5 AM EDT Tuesday, September 12, 2017 Post-Tropical Cyclone Irma, Hurricane Jose, & Tropical Wave (10%)
Tropical Update 5 AM EDT Tuesday, September 12, 2017 Post-Tropical Cyclone Irma, Hurricane Jose, & Tropical Wave (10%) This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided
More informationThe National Hurricane Center and Forecasting Hurricanes: 2017 Overview and 2018 Outlook
The National Hurricane Center and Forecasting Hurricanes: 2017 Overview and 2018 Outlook Peter Folger Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy Updated August 23, 2018 Congressional Research Service
More informationERTH 365 Homework #2: Hurricane Harvey. 100 points
ERTH 365 Homework #2: Hurricane Harvey 100 points Due by 6pm, Tuesday 30 October 2018, ELECTRONIC SUBMISSON BY EMAIL ONLY BY 6PM (send to klevey@sfsu.edu) (acceptable formats: MS Word, Google Doc, plain
More informationForecast Challenges of the 2017 Hurricane Season and NHC Priorities for 2018
Forecast Challenges of the 2017 Hurricane Season and NHC Priorities for 2018 Michael J. Brennan, Mark DeMaria, Eric S. Blake, Richard J. Pasch, Andrew Penny Annual HFIP Meeting 8 November 2017 Outline
More informationCovered Area Rainfall Event (18-19 September 2017) Hurricane Maria Excess Rainfall
Covered Area Rainfall Event (18-19 September 2017) Hurricane Maria Excess Rainfall Event Briefing Barbados 28 September 2017 Registered Office: CCRIF SPC c/o Sagicor Insurance Managers Ltd., 198 North
More informationHurricanes and Their Tracks
LESSON PLAN 1 Hurricanes 3 5 Hurricanes and Their Tracks Children will know better what to expect of an approaching hurricane if they understand what a hurricane is and the weather associated with it.
More informationTropical Update. 5 AM EDT Thursday, September 7, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, and Hurricane Katia
Tropical Update 5 AM EDT Thursday, September 7, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, and Hurricane Katia This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational
More information