2008 Hurricane Caravan. Daniel Noah Meteorologist National Weather Service x1 May 22, 2008

Transcription

1 2008 Hurricane Caravan Daniel Noah Meteorologist National Weather Service x1 May 22, 2008

2 National Weather Service We never close! Open 24 hours a day 365 days per year 26 employees 14 meteorologists

3 Weather Forecast Offices 125 Offices Nationwide

4 Hazardous Weather Warnings We issue the warnings you hear on radio and TV

5 We Also Do Research The real reason for power outages

6 Partners in the Warning Process National Weather Service Emergency Management Broadcast and Print Media

7 NOAA Weather Radio Warns of natural and man made hazards Alerts you even when you re sleeping! New radios can be programmed just for your county

8 Hurricanes, Where and When The Atlantic Hurricane Season is June through November

9 Hurricane Strikes

10 All Hurricanes

11 Tropical Storms are Dangerous! Tropical Storm Jeanne $837 Million in Damage in west-central Florida

12 Why is Forecasting Hard? 1 2 3

13 Katrina 5 Day Forecast Model Plots 08/24/2005 1:00 pm CDT.

14 Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Fly into hurricane to get information that make forecasts better.

15 The Cone of Uncertainty and the Skinny Black Line The cone is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that 2/3rds of the storm centers in the past 5 years fall within the circle.

16 Public Perception of Forecast Hard Right Turn

17 Communicating Track Uncertainty Chance of Hurricane Wind Chance at Tampa and Punta Gorda were both around 30%! Hurricane Charley (2004) 18 UTC Thu 12 Aug

18 .01 Deal or No Deal? Bank s offer $200, If you say No Deal, there is only a 20% chance of knocking the $1 million case out of play in the next round. 1,000,000

19 Deal or No Deal? Bank s offer $2.50 If the $1 million case is knocked out, this is an extreme event! Think of what you could have done with $1 million dollars. A hurricane is an extreme event! It can take away your home and can hurt your family.

20 Tropical Cyclone Direct Fatalities in FL , 33 Cases and 317 Fatalities 38 Marine craft 32 Rip currents 26 Fresh water flooding

21 Evacuation Called for Only 2 Reasons 1. For People in the Storm Surge Zone Hurricane Charley 2004 Motorists Fleeing Pinellas County on the Howard Franklin Bridge

22 Evacuation Called for Only 2 Reasons 2. For People in Manufactured Homes

23 Hurricane Dangers - Evacuation Motorists trapped on I-26 as Hurricane Floyd approached Charleston, SC in 1999 Evacuation was a problem in Houston as Hurricane Rita approached in 2004

24 Hurricanes & High Rise Buildings March 2000 Ft. Worth, TX F2 intensity ( mph) tornado damage What about a Category 4 ( mph) hurricane for a half hour?

25 Hurricane Danger Fresh Water Flooding Lannis Waters The Palm Beach Post A man was killed when his car went into the water covered hole near Lake Wales during Charley

26 Tornadoes in Hurricane Dennis Tornado damage in Brandon

27 Storm Tide Storm Tide = Surge + Tide 1998 Hurricane Georges Key West, FL Surge 4 to 6 feet

28 2004 Hurricane Charley Radar Loop

29 Hurricane Charley was a Wind Event CAT 4 Wind in Purple

30 2004 Hurricane Charley What happen to Charley s Storm Surge?

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33 Katrina Storm Surge Video 1 cubic yard of water weighs 1,700 pounds! Click to Play

34 Before Hurricane Katrina The Carter House, Pass Christian, Mississippi

35 After Katrina s Surge The Carter House, Pass Christian, Mississippi

36 Before Hurricane Katrina The Dantzler House, Biloxi, Mississippi

37 After Katrina s Surge The Dantzler House, Biloxi, Mississippi

38 2004 Hurricane Ivan Damage What will happen to our highways and causeways?

39 Hurricane Rita Storm Surge Before After

40 Our Barrier Islands are no Different Fort Myers Beach St Pete Beach St Armands Circle Google Maps Cedar Key Google Maps Google Maps

41 CAT 3 - October 27, 1921 Photo credit: Courtesy of the Special Collections Department, University of South Florida.

42 Tampa Bay Storm Surge CAT 1 CAT 2 CAT 4

43 Storm Surge Tampa Bay Dr. Weisberg Dr. Zheng ft ft Uniform Rise in in Water

44 Evacuation Zones

45 Category 4 Hurricane ( MPH) Landfall at Indian Rocks Beach moving west to east at 10 knots Look at storm surge over the next 8 hours

46 1 PM CAT 4 Hurricane 18 ft 0 ft 20 ft 15 ft Add tides and waves on top of surge! 7 ft 4 ft

47 3 PM CAT 4 Hurricane -6 ft 20 ft 17 ft 20 ft 9 ft Let us zoom in on this area 7 ft 7 ft

48 Water Flows Downhill 17 ft 7 ft 0 ft

49 5 PM CAT 4 Hurricane -6 ft 15 ft 12 ft 17 ft 14 ft 7 ft 7 ft

50 9 PM CAT 4 Hurricane -1 ft 9 ft 15 ft 9 ft 7 ft 6 ft 19 ft

51 52 The (THEY) Effect They say its coming here They say its going to miss us They say its going to be bad They say its not going to be bad They say it could be windy They say it will rain a lot

52 Any Questions? I should have been a weatherman

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