Tropical Update. 5 PM EDT Thursday, August 27, 2015 Tropical Storm Erika

Transcription

1 Tropical Update 5 PM EDT Thursday, August 27, 2015 Tropical Storm Erika This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational and situational awareness purposes only. Forecast conditions are subject to change based on a variety of environmental factors. For additional information, or for any life safety concerns with an active weather event please contact your County Emergency Management or Public Safety Office, local National Weather Service forecast office or visit the National Hurricane Center website at

2 Atlantic Basin Satellite Image Tropical Waves T.S. Erika

3 Satellite Images of T.S. Erika

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5 Water Vapor Satellite Image Dry Air T.S. Erika 87 Tropical Storm Danny

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7 T.S Erika ASCAT Satellite Wind Data from 9 am EDT

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9 3 Day Wind Swath and NHC Forecast Track

10 Steering Currents

11 Sea Surface Temperatures Near T.S. Erika

12 Current Wind Shear (shaded) and Shear Tendency (contours)

13 Forecast Wind Shear-Saturday Morning

14 Forecast Wind Shear-Sunday Morning

15 Invest 97L

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17 Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities (34Kt): Jacksonville 21% Daytona Beach 30% Orlando 30% W Palm Beach 43% Miami, FL 42% Key West, FL 27%

18 Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities (50Kt): Jacksonville 5% Daytona Beach 7% Orlando 6% W Palm Beach 12% Miami, FL 13% Key West, FL 8%

19 Forecast 7 Day Rainfall Totals

20 Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI)

21 Outlook: Tropical Storm Erika has weakened slightly since this morning, and now has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with higher gusts. Erika is currently located just west of the Lesser Antilles (Eastern Caribbean), or about 1219 miles southeast of Miami. Erika is finally beginning to shift moving towards the west-northwest, and has slowed slightly to a forward speed of 15 mph. This general motion should continue over the next 48 hours. On this current track, Erika will be near or over Puerto Rico by tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Models are still uncertain about Erika s track after the next 36 to 48 hours or so, although the general consensus has shifted slightly westward with the latest model runs. The latest forecast cone puts Erika as a category one hurricane just skirting the Florida East Coast. However, the forecast track during this time frame is still very uncertain, and the entire Florida Peninsula remains within the 5 day forecast cone. As of the 5 PM update, the southeastern tip of the Peninsula is now within the 3 day cone. As Erika moves across the Eastern Caribbean Islands, it will encounter unfavorable conditions for at least the next 36 to 48 hours. Wind shear is expected to increase over the next day or so, and Erika s interaction with land will also help inhibit any strengthening. However, if Erika s circulation remains intact as it heads into the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, it will encounter much more favorable conditions for development. The National Hurricane Center keeps Erika as a tropical storm until it Sunday night into Monday, when it is currently forecast to become a category one hurricane and slow considerably. Florida Outlook: The entire Florida Peninsula remains within the 5 day forecast cone, with areas along the Southeast Florida coast now within the 3 day forecast cone. Some areas of Southeast Florida now have between a 40% and 50% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds at some point over the next 5 days. It is important when looking at these probability graphics to not focus on the number, but rather the trends as new products become available. The probability of tropical storm force winds across the Peninsula have been increasing with each advisory. Given the uncertainty in the forecast in the 3 to 5 day range, it is very difficult to determine what the impact to Florida may be at this time, however, interests in Florida should continue to monitor the storms progress as it nears the U.S. Another Briefing Packet will be sent out tomorrow morning after the 8am advisory. For more information on this system visit the NHC website at

22 Created by: Molly Merrifield, Assistant State Meteorologist