FORENSIC WEATHER CONSULTANTS, LLC

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1 SAMPLE HURRICANE SANDY REPORT NOTE: MOST NAMES, LOCATIONS, DATA FINDINGS AND GRAPHS HAVE BEEN CHANGED SPECIFICALLY FOR THIS SAMPLE REPORT AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN BEING A SAMPLE REPORT FORENSIC WEATHER CONSULTANTS, LLC Howard Altschule Forensic Meteorologist 1971 Western Avenue, #200 Albany, New York (518) (Phone) (518) (Fax) FORENSIC HURRICANE REPORT: DETERMINATION OF THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS AND STORM TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ON OCTOBER 28-29, 2012 IN THE VICINITY OF 229 OCEAN BOULEVARD IN COASTALTOWN, NEW JERSEY December 9, 2012 CASE NAME/FILE NUMBER: Abram Samuel INCIDENT LOCATION: 229 Ocean Boulevard; Coastaltown, New Jersey PREPARED FOR: Mr. John Smith, Engineer COMPANY: Professional Determinations, LLC ASSIGNMENT: This case was assigned to me by Professional Determinations, LLC. I was asked to perform an in-depth weather analysis and forensic weather investigation in the vicinity of 229 Ocean 1

2 Boulevard in Coastaltown, New Jersey in order to determine what the weather conditions were leading up to and including the time of this incident. METHODOLOGY: Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC uses trusted and reliable sources of weather information and data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (N.O.A.A.), the National Climatic Data Center (N.C.D.C.), the National Weather Service, the National Ocean Service, the United States Geological Survey, the National Data Buoy Center (N.D.B.C.), the New Jersey Climatologists Office, the New York State Climatologists Office and other of reliable sources. Numerous different weather stations and types of records were utilized in this investigation. Significant quality control and verification of the processes employed in placing, measuring and reporting the wind speeds, storm tides and high water marks were completed through our numerous interactions with the government offices listed above. This was done to ensure the accuracy and details of the information in this report. STATION SELECTION AND DATA: In order to perform my analysis of the weather conditions that existed, I obtained and reviewed official copies of the following weather records: Hourly surface weather observations / Quality Controlled Local Climatological Data from JFK International Airport in Queens, New York; LaGuardia Airport in Queens, New York; Central Park Observatory in New York, New York; Republic Airport in Farmingdale, New York; Islip MacArthur Airport in Islip, New York; Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey; Monmouth Executive Airport in Belmar/Farmingdale, New Jersey; Somerset Airport in Somerville, New Jersey; Teterboro Airport in Teterboro, New Jersey; Maxfield Field in Lakehurst, New Jersey; McGuire Air Force Base in Wrightstown, New Jersey; and Atlantic City International Airport in Atlantic City, New Jersey in October 2012 One-Minute surface weather observations from JFK International Airport in Queens, New York; LaGuardia Airport in Queens, New York; Central Park Observatory in New York, New York; Republic Airport in Farmingdale, New York; Islip MacArthur Airport in Islip, New York; Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey; Somerset Airport in Somerville, New Jersey; Teterboro Airport in Teterboro, New Jersey; and Atlantic City International Airport in Atlantic City, New Jersey The publication entitled Local Climatological Data from JFK International Airport in Queens, New York; LaGuardia Airport in Queens, New York; Central Park Observatory in New York, New York; Islip MacArthur Airport in Islip, New York; Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey; and Atlantic City International Airport in Atlantic City, New Jersey in October Meter Buoy discus station Water Level Observation Network Station BATN6 2

3 Water Level Observation Network Station ROBN4 Water Level Observation Network Station BGNN4 Tides and Currents Historic Tide Data Table and Graph from New Jersey Station Hourly Wind Data for Near-TheSea, New Jersey from the State Climatologist High Water Mark Data from Stations RIC 701, RIC-702, RIC 703, RIC 705, RIC 706, RIC 716, RIC 717, RIC 718, RIC 719, RIC 982, Station data from RIC-001WL Station data from RIC-004WL Climatologist Mesonet and Safetynet Observations from various stations in Ocean County and Monmouth Counties in New Jersey Various National Weather Service (N.W.S.) statements, advisories, bulletins and reports issued by the Upton, New York office. Various National Weather Service (N.W.S.) statements, advisories, bulletins and reports issued by the Philadelphia/Mount Holly, New Jersey office. Advisories, Statements and Discussions from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida Post-Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Sandy issued by the National Weather Service (N.W.S.) offices in Upton, New York and Philadelphia/Mount Holly, New Jersey. Super-resolution reflectivity Doppler radar images from the Philadelphia/Mount Holly, New Jersey radar site zoomed in over the incident location (NOTE: ADDITIONAL WEATHER STATIONS AND DATA WILL BE USED DEPENDANT ON WHERE THE INCIDENT LOCATION OCCURRED) The weather data and Climatological records used for this analysis are the official records that Meteorologists rely upon every day during the normal course of business. The findings in this report utilize the weather records that were available at the time of data retrieval for this case. Any additional weather records and data that become available at a later date may be incorporated into this report in the future. Using the computer program Google Earth, many of the weather station locations were plotted and are indicated by either a yellow pushpin or a red marker. The location of the incident was plotted by our office, indicated by a red pushpin and labeled as Incident Location. This map will help give you an approximate location of the weather stations we used in this study and their proximity to the location of the incident. A copy of this Google Earth map can be found below. 3

4 In addition to the weather records and climatological data listed above, I also reviewed the following information that was provided to me: Plaintiff s Verified Bill of Particulars Examination Before trial of John Smith Examination Before trial of John Smith Dewey Engineering Report Seven (7) Color Photographs of the incident location STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE DEFINITIONS: According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Storm Surge is defined as an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Storm Tide is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. The following diagram illustrates the definitions of Storm Surge and Storm Tide given above. 4

5 According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), storm tide water levels are measured by comparing the observed water levels to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). According to NOAA, The North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) is the vertical control datum established in 1991 by the minimum-constraint adjustment of the Canadian-Mexican-U.S. leveling observations. It held fixed the height of the primary tidal bench mark, referenced to the new International Great Lakes Datum of 1985 local mean sea level height value, at Father Point/Rimouski, Quebec, Canada. Additional tidal bench mark elevations were not used due to the demonstrated variations in sea surface topography, i.e., the fact that mean sea level is not the same equipotential surface at all tidal bench marks. In this report, the storm tide levels are given for heights above NAVD 88, which in plain English is in the middle of the tide cycle when the tide is not high and not low. The Storm Tide in this report includes the storm surge height, the water height due to the astronomical tide cycles and the wave heights. HURRICANE/POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY OVERVIEW: Hurricane Sandy initially started out as a low pressure system in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea south of Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. After moving to the west and gradually organizing, the National Hurricane Center initiated the first advisory at 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday October 22, 2012 and declared Tropical Depression 18 (TD 18) born. While the exact center of circulation was difficult to pinpoint, enough organization, a closed circulation and convective banding were enough to initiate advisories. The system continued to organize during the day and TD 18 was quickly upgraded to Tropical Storm Sandy at 5:00 p.m. EDT on October 22, Sandy generally moved to the north over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea and strengthened just south of Jamaica. While approaching Jamaica, Sandy was upgraded to Hurricane status with sustained winds of 80 Miles Per Hour (MPH). Over the next several days, Hurricane Sandy generally moved northward and affected Eastern Cuba and most of the Bahamas with Hurricane Force winds, large waves, torrential rainfall and a dangerous storm surge. In fact, Hurricane Sandy maxed out at strong Category 2 status with sustained winds of 115 MPH over Eastern Cuba at 1:30 a.m. on Thursday October 25, On the 2:00 a.m. 5

6 October 25, 2012 advisory, it was noted that a wind gust to 114 MPH was reported in Santiago De Cuba. Over the next several days, Sandy maintained Hurricane status and moved northeastward parallel to the United Stated East Coast. Well east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Sandy made a turn to the North-Northwest and then the Northwest and made an approach targeting the New Jersey coastline. By 5:00 p.m. on Monday October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy was located 30 Miles East-Southeast of Cape May, New Jersey and had sustained winds of 90 MPH. Sandy was a very large hurricane and had hurricane-force winds that extended up to 175 miles from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 485 miles from the center. A dangerous and damaging storm surge/storm tide occurred in many coastal communities of New York, New Jersey and Long Island as Sandy affected the Northeastern United States. At 7:00 p.m. EDT on Monday October 29, 2012 (one hour before landfall), the National Hurricane Center reclassified Sandy from a Hurricane to a Post-Tropical Cyclone. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday October 29, 2012, Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey with sustained winds of 80 MPH. HURRICANE / POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY TRACK HISTORY 6

7 DOPPLER RADAR IMAGE OF HURRICANE/POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY The following Super-Reflectivity Doppler radar image was processed by the National Weather Service radar site in Philadelphia/Mount Holly, New Jersey at 7:56 p.m. EDT (23:56:08 GMT) on October 29, This specific image was processed approximately 4 minutes before the center of the storm made landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey. The red L on the radar map represents the center of the Post-Tropical Cyclone near Atlantic City, New Jersey. Strong winds and significant storm tides occurred well away from the center of the storm. Super-resolution Doppler radar images and several other types of weather records were used in this study. Doppler radar images are useful for locating precipitation. As the radar unit sends a pulse of energy into the atmosphere and if any precipitation is intercepted by the energy, part of the energy is scattered back to the radar. These return signals, called radar echoes, are assembled to produce radar images. The location of the colored radar echoes indicates where precipitation is falling and the various colors indicate the intensity of the precipitation through the color code key on the right side of the radar image itself. Doppler radar images are received approximately every 6 minutes and can determine if precipitation was falling at the incident location and if so, when it started and stopped. The radar image date and time stamp on the Doppler radar image below is given in GMT, which is Greenwich Mean Time. In order to convert GMT to Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), a subtraction of 4 hours is necessary. Additional Doppler radar images are contained on the DVD that was included with the final report. 7

8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BULLETINS, WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey issued the following advisories and warnings for Ocean County, New Jersey between October 28 th and October 30 th, 2012: 1. A High Surf Advisory was in effect for Ocean County, New Jersey from xxxxxxx xx, 2012 through xxxx on October xx, According to the National Weather Service, A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area.producing rip currents and localized beach erosion. 2. A Coastal Flood Warning was in effect for Ocean County, New Jersey from xxxxxxx xx, 2012 through xxxx on October xx, According to the National Weather Service, A Coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is expected or occurring. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for rising water and take appropriate action to protect life and property. 3. A High Wind Warning was in effect for Ocean County, New Jersey from xxxxxxx xx, 2012 through xxxx on October xx, According to the National Weather Service, A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage. 4. At x:xx a.m. on October xx, 2012, the High Wind Warning was cancelled/downgraded to a Wind Advisory that was effective until xx:xx p.m. on xxxx x, According to the National Weather Service, A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of MPH or gusts of 46 to 57 MPH are expected or occurring. Winds this strong can make driving difficult especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. PEAK STORM TIDE WATER LEVELS: Using a GIS program and Google Earth, various observed, measured and post-storm surveyed storm tide water levels were plotted on the map below and zoomed in over the incident location and nearby areas. Through extrapolation of the data below, the peak storm tide for the incident location was determined and provided in the table and graph below. 8

9 ANALYSIS OF THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS AND STORM TIDES AT 229 COASTAL BOULEVARD IN COASTALTOWN, NEW JERSEY ON OCTOBER 28-29, 2012 The following table contains the peak wind speeds and storm tide water levels every 30 minutes in the vicinity of 229 Coastal Boulevard in Coastaltown, New Jersey on October 28-29, The time is given in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), the wind speeds are given in Miles Per Hour (MPH) and the Storm Tide water levels are given in Feet (FT). NOTE: MOST NAMES, LOCATIONS, DATA FINDINGS AND GRAPHS HAVE BEEN CHANGED SPECIFICALLY FOR THIS SAMPLE REPORT AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN BEING A SAMPLE REPORT DATE TIME (EDT) Peak Wind Speeds (MPH) Storm Tide (Feet) 10/28/12 12:00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM

10 2:30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM

11 10:00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM /29/12 12:00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 AM :30:00 AM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM

12 5:30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM :00:00 PM :30:00 PM CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, it is my opinion that: 12

13 The peak wind speed that occurred at the incident location was approximately 77 Miles Per Hour (MPH) between approximately 8:00-8:30 p.m. on October 29, The highest storm tide water level in the vicinity of the incident location was 12.3 Feet (FT) which occurred at approximately 8:00 p.m. on October 29, NOTE: MOST NAMES, LOCATIONS, DATA FINDINGS AND GRAPHS HAVE BEEN CHANGED SPECIFICALLY FOR THIS SAMPLE REPORT AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN BEING A SAMPLE REPORT After studying all of the available weather records and information listed above, we conclude that the findings, opinions and information in this report are given with a reasonable degree of Meteorological certainty. By: Howard Altschule Certified Consulting Meteorologist Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC 13