USACE-ERDC Coastal Storm Modeling System Updates Chris Massey, PhD

Transcription

1 USACE-ERDC Coastal Storm Modeling System Updates Chris Massey, PhD Research Mathematician USACE-ERDC Coastal & Hydraulics Lab

2 ERDC s Coastal Storm-Modeling System (ERDC CSTORM-MS) Application of high-resolution, highly skilled numerical models in a tightly integrated modeling system with user friendly interfaces Not just hurricanes and not just in the Gulf of Mexico. Expandable and upgradeable system. Next Generation Workflow Provides for a robust, standardized approach to establishing the risk of coastal communities to future occurrences of storm events. 2

3 SMS GUI s Through the SMS GUI s users can setup and execute models as well as visualize model results. New GUI for Project Overview New GUI for MORPHOS PBL Cyclone Model New GUI for CSTORM Coupled Models Updated GUI for AdH New GUI for WAM Wave Model Updated GUI for STWAVE Updated GUI for ADCIRC 3

4 What s New AdH coupling with STWAVE SEDLIB enhanced with C2SHORE FEMA-LRE Lake Michigan Storm Water Level Modeling Time varying bathymetry added to ADCIRC & STWAVE Time varying ice concentration fields added to ADCIRC, STWAVE, and WAM Full Morphology Coupling ADCIRC + STWAVE+(ADH/C2Shore+STWAVE) (Oct 2013) Working on coupling to GSSHA ASGS for CSTORM-MS

5 Full Morphology Coupling ADH STWAVE T2 ADH STWAVE T1 STWAVE T1 ADCIRC STW T1 Information Flow STW T2 ADCIRC ADH/C2Shore ADH/C2Shore ADCIRC ADCIRC STW T1 STW T2 ADH/C2Shore STW T2 5

6 CHL s Hurricane Sandy Modeling Efforts On Saturday Oct. 27, 2012, ERDC CHL was asked by the New York District (NAN) through the UROC to provide estimates to potential flooding in the New York City area before 1200 EDT on Monday October, 29, Provide potential coastal storm surge estimates using the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC Provide potential inland flooding estimates using the overland flow model GSSHA All estimates carried a disclaimer that the results were not intended to replace the official forecasts from NOAA. Advisory 20 from Saturday at 0500 EDT 6

7 CHL s ADCIRC Runs for Sandy EC2001FIMP Grid FEMA Region 2 Grid Surge Modeling for Sandy Used two meshes EC2001FIMP Grid FEMA Region 2 Grid Used tidal forcing and the imbedded asymmetric vortex Holland wind/pressure model Wind model inputs derived from the NHC forecast using the ASGS Advisories were simulated Advisory 26 results sent to NAN. 7

8 Max Elevation (ft MSL) Advisory 26 Advisory 29 8 EC2001FIMP Grid

9 The Battery, NY Elevation (ft MSL) Advisory 26 UTC Time Advisory 29 UTC Time Datum Conversions at this Location MSL to NAVD88 subtract 0.21 ft BUILDING STRONG MSL to MLLW add 2.57 ft 9 UTC Time EC2001FIMP Grid

10 Comparison of Hurricane Sandy Water Elevations (ft MSL) at the NOAA Gauge at the Battery, NY UTC Time Datum Conversions at this Location MSL to NAVD88 subtract 0.21 ft MSL to MLLW add 2.57 ft 10

11 GSSHA New York Models GSSHA is a gridded, physicsbased full hydrology model Overland flow, stream flow, groundwater, vadose zone, storm and tile drains, wetlands, erosion, constituent transport GSSHA 2D Overland Flow Model used to predict inland flood inundation Use time-varying specified head condition for storm surge 2 Models: Central NY (right) Long Island Rainfall estimated from NWS plots Storm surge from ADCIRC 11

12 GSSHA Results from Advisory 26 12

13 GSSHA Results from Advisory 26 13

14 GFDL Met Option for ADCIRC The NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. More detailed GFDL information is available at 1. Operational Hurricane Forecast 2. Ensemble Hurricane Modeling 14

15 GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16 15

16 GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16 Moving nested grids that track the center of the storm Interpolation onto ADCIRC nodes using the fast KDTree search algorithm and inverse weighted distance averaging from the nearest 6 cells. 16

17 GFDL Met for ADCIRC Wind Speed (m/s) NWS=16 Zoomed 17

18 GFDL Met for ADCIRC Sea Surface Pressure (hpa) NWS=16 Zoomed 18

19 GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16 GFDL files are text ASCII, with each file containing information for one time record. All fields in a file are written as real numbers with f10.4 format Line 1: Total Number of Grid Points Line 2 End: U V Temp Mixing Ratio Accum Precip Sea Level Pressure Longitude Latitude Hurricane Hour Nest Number m/s m/s K kg/kg cm hpa decimal deg decimal deg Current Operational Model Spacing Nest 1 Cell Spacing = 0.5 degrees Nest 2 Cell Spacing = 0.5/3 = degrees Nest 3 Cell Spacing = 0.5/6 = degrees New High Res: 0.5/9 = degrees 19

20 GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16 The ADCIRC fort.22 file for NWS=16 is very similar to that of NWS=15 (Hwind) 1. # Metadata Header 2. WND_MULT Wind Multiplier Value (Real Number) 3. MAX_EXTRAP_DIST Maximum Extrapolation Distance (m) (Real Number) 4. CYCLE_TIME, RAMP_VAL, FILE_NAME CYCLE_TIME IN HOURS (Real Number) (Time relative to cold start if NWS=16, otherwise relative to hot start time if NWS=-16) RAMP_VAL (Real Number) (Ramping multiplier) FILE_NAME (Character 1024) #High Res. GFDL Hurricane Sandy Base e hrhour hrhour hrhour hrhour hrhour hrhour hrhour hrhour hrhour

21 ADCIRC Results for GFDL Sandy Forecast 2012/10/25 at 12 UTC