ERDC S COASTAL STORM MODELING SYSTEM (AND APPLICATIONS)

Transcription

1 ERDC S COASTAL STORM MODELING SYSTEM (AND APPLICATIONS) Chris Massey Research Mathematician, USACE-ERDC Coastal & Hydraulics Lab Chris.Massey@usace.army.mil November 1-2, 2017

2 Team Acknowledgements Hung Nguyen and Ruth Cheng (ITL) Framework Coding Bob Jensen, Al Cialone, Ty Hesser (Deep Water Waves) Mary Bryant, Jane Smith (Nearshore Waves) Mary Cialone (Circulation Modeling/Production) Yan Ding, Margaret Owensby, Greg Slusarczyk, Amanda Tritinger, and John Goertz (Production Modeling Team) Corey Trahan (ITL) Coupling with ADH Jennifer Tate McAlpin, Cassandra Ross, Tate McAlpin (ADH Cases) Ahmad Tavakoly, Mark Wahl, Aaron Byrd, Nawa Pradan, Drew Loney, Mike Follum, Chuck Downer (Coupling with GSSHA) Chris Massey USACE-ERDC-CHL 2

3 An Example Storm Surge and Wave Problem Morganza to the Gulf of Mexico Feasibility Study Chris Massey USACE-ERDC-CHL Slide courtesy of Mary Cialone. 3

4 Without Project Storm 314 With Project Sea Level Rise 0.35 m Existing Water Level BUILDING STRONG Slide courtesy of Mary Cialone. Chris Massey USACE-ERDC-CHL 4 Sea Level Rise 0.35 m Existing Water Level

5 ERDC s Coastal Storm - Modeling System Application of high-resolution, highly skilled numerical models in a tightly integrated modeling system with user friendly interfaces Readily relocatable and flexible forcing features. Plug-n-Play design for expandable and upgradeable system. Next Generation Workflow Provides for a robust, standardized approach to modeling coupling. Used for establishing the risk of coastal communities to future occurrences of storm events. Chris Massey USACE-ERDC-CHL 5

6 SMS GUI s Through the SMS GUI s users can setup and execute models as well as visualize model results. New GUI for Project Overview New GUI for MORPHOS PBL Cyclone Model New GUI for CSTORM Coupled Models Updated GUI for AdH New GUI for WAM Wave Model Updated GUI for STWAVE Updated GUI for ADCIRC 6

7 CSTORM Coupling Framework (Example Waves + Circulation) One unstructured finite element circulation mesh A single instance of ADCIRC/ADH One or more wave grids/meshes Multiple instances of STWAVE/WW3 Information to Exchange ζ, uv, CIRC WAVE Wave τ, τ x y Circulation For consistency use the same winds and bathymetry (can be passed via coupler) CIRC Timeline WAVE Snaps 7 Synchronize both time and spatial frames of reference.

8 Circulation Wave Coupling PC and HPC applications! Controller 1 cpu Coupler 1 cpu (1 coupler/wave) CIRC/WAVE share cpu s Model coupling between ADCIRC/ADH and STWAVE/WW3 is performed using CSTORM-MS Couplers written in FORTRAN and MPI. One benefit of using the ESMF coupling standards is that the individual codes stay virtually autonomous. Specification of how the two models are to interact is done with a simple control file (mf_config.in). If more than one WAVE grid is involved, fine detail control over any overlapping regions can be specified by using a (merge_file). Expandable! 8

9 Effects of Wave-Surge Coupling Synthetic Tropical Storm 0944 Difference Max. Sea Surface Elevation (Wave Coupling No Waves) Topography/Bathymetry meters meters 9

10 Effects of Wave-Surge Coupling Synthetic Tropical Storm 0944 Maximum Significant Wave Heights Difference Maximum Significant Wave Heights (With Surge No Surge) 10

11 Combined Joint Probability of Coastal Storm Hazards Forcing Tropical cyclones Extratropical cyclones Response Water level (storm surge, astronomical tide, SLC) Currents Wave height, peak period, direction Wind speed, direction 11

12 CSTORM Production System The CSTORM Production System (CSTORM-PS) makes use of standard Linux/Unix tools (bash scripting) and readily available open source software, Python The production system allows for Rapid preparation input files (Reduces chances for human error) Execution of the simulation and post processing (Optimized CPU usage) Efficient file storage and archival CSTORM Production System Setup Simulation Prep ADCIRC for Parallel Execute CSTORM Visualize & Stats Compress Outputs Tar Results Together Archive Results 12

13 Recent Applications Coastal Texas Comprehensive Study (670 Storm events on 3 different water levels with & without project designs) North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) (1,150 storm events on 3 different water levels) Several smaller projects in FY17 Dyke Marsh, VA Kotzebue, AK AL/FL Coast (295 Storms and 6 water levels) 13

14 Coastal Texas Comprehensive Study Study Area 660 Synthetic Storms 1050 Synthetic Tropical Storms ADCIRC :: 4.5M nodes and 9M elements Over 1,900 high resolution base CSTORM simulations for winds, waves and surge levels including sea level rise scenarios. Results stored in the Coastal Hazards Systems for risk analysis and decision support making for projects all along the coast. With project alternatives simulations for feasibility study. 14

15 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Storm Surge Domain 1050 Synthetic Tropical Storms Over 3400 high resolution CSTORM simulations for winds, waves and surge levels including sea level rise scenarios. Results stored in the Coastal Hazards Systems for risk analysis and decision support making for projects all along the coast. 15

16 ADCIRC Storm Surge Results Advisory 20 Hurricane Harvey ADCIRC Maximum Elevation ADCIRC Time Series Zoom The ADCIRC CSTORM simulations included tides, surface winds and surface pressures. 5 day forecast period performed in less than 2.5 hours using 1,716 processors on ERDC HPC systems. ADCIRC Maximum Elevation These results were provided to USACE District Engineers and Operations Personnel. Not intended for public use and not to conflict with Official NHC forecast results. ADCIRC Time Series ADCIRC Time Series 16

17 Current Research & Development Waves Unstructured Meshes Dynamic Linking of Coastal and Overland Flow Models (GSSHA) Pre-Computed/Surrogate Modeling Uncertainty Quantification and Ensembles GIS and Decision Support Tools Semi-Automated input generation for Urban areas Decision Support Tools Across the Entire Watershed GSSHA 17

18 Summary CSTORM-MS is an efficient, robust, extensible modeling system for quantifying the risk of coastal communities to storm events. (Plug-n-Play models) Its streamlined workflow saves time and reduces both computational and personnel cost. Model data feeds into the Coastal Hazards System for easy access and reuse purposes. 18