Summary of 2013 Activities

Transcription

1 Summary of 2013 Activities

2 Name Affiliation Focus Area Frank Aikman NOAA-NOS Physical Cort Cooper, Chair Chevron Physical Dale Crockett Texas Water Development Board Coastal phys. Shejun Fan Shell (Formerly Fugro-GEOS) Physical Sergei Frolov WeatherPredict Physical Rebecca Green BOEM Biological Ruoying He North Carolina State Univ. Physical Pat Hogan Navy Research Lab Physical Dubravko Justic LSU Biological Paul Montagna TAMU Corpus Christi Biological Steve Morey Florida State U. Physical Kyeong Park Univ. So. Alabama/Dauphin Island Coastal phys. George Voulgaris Univ. South Carolina Coastal phys. Jerry Wiggert Univ. Southern Mississippi Biological Worth Nowlin GCOOS-RA Board Liaison Physical Matthew Howard TAMU GCOOS-RA Staff Physical

3 } First Face-2-Face meeting, Houston, Feb 15 Attended by all but 2 members Reviewed ongoing modeling efforts Formed subcommittee to assist GCOOS Ecosystem Modeling Workshop Formed subcommittee to update physical modeling element for GCOOS } Held modeling workshop, Houston, May Focused on GOMEX-PPP effort funded by RPSEA/CASE Attended by roughly ½ of MTT members } Produced format for Ecosystem modeling workshop } Will complete physical modeling element by end of 2013 } Will have F2F in early 2014

4 Goal: accurate, long- term forecast of d/w ocean currents in GoMex Funders: RPSEA (DOE) and CASE (Oil Industry) Phase 1 Findings: Completed Fall 2012 Model errors remain stubbornly high Preliminary studies with model ensembling show promise Phase 2: Accelerate NRL effort to develop ensemble model If successful, Navy likely to move to operaqonal model Started Fall 2012 and will end Spring 2014

5 Multi-Model Comparison: Sea Surface Height 11 Feburary 2013

6 8-Week Ensemble Forecast Analysis: March 10 Altimetry: March 10 Analysis: March 10 Mean (17 cm) SSH Std. Dev. (17 cm) SSH Forecast: May 05 Altimetry: May 05 Forecast: May 05

7 8-Week Ensemble Forecast Analysis: April 21 Altimetry: April 21 Analysis: April 21 Mean (17 cm) SSH Std. Dev. (17 cm) SSH Forecast: June 16 Altimetry: June 16 Forecast: June 16

8 Operational Safety/Warning System Impacts/Thresholds Examples Surface Ocean Currents: very high impact if above 0.7m/s; high impact if above 0.5m/s and below 0.7m/s; moderate impact if between 0.25 and 0.5m/s; low impact if above 0.15m/s. Surface Winds : very high impact if above 3 0m/s; high impact if above 20m/s; moderate impact if above 10m/s; low impact if above 5m/s; Sea State: very high impact if above 3m; high impact if above 2m ; moderate impact if above 1m; low impact if above 0.5m.

9 CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS (CONOPS) for Gulf of Mexico Seasonal Mesoscale Ocean Forecasting System( I.INTRODUCTION NOTE: at least in the early stage of planning, there are two parts to the CONOPS: EXTERNAL (STAKEHOLDERS) & INTERNAL (PROVIDERS)Some entities are both STAKEHOLDERS & PROVIDERS CONOPS deal with strategic topics: WHAT,WHY,WHO,WHERE,WHEN,HOW,USER NEEDS, ETC II.EXTERNAL CONOPS (GCOOS, CASE-EJIP, Horizon Marine, et al,navy, NOAA) Initial Objectives w/a Seasonal (2 mos or more) Forecast Horizon of basic oceanographic quantities with uncertainty Stakeholders (i.e., those entities which provide oversight, including specification and evaluation of system upgrades) - Navy (NAVO, NRL?) - NOAA (NWS (NCEP, WFOs?), NOS (CSDL/CO-OPS)) - Offshore Oil & Gas Industry (CASE-EJIP) - Value-added Industry (Horizon Marine, etc.) - GCOOS (user needs,outreach,training etc.) Principal Players - NRL provides prediction system upgrades, etc. - NAVO services Navy's interests and needs,and sends model guidance to NCEP for further dissemination to civil sector - public (WFOs) and private (Horizon Marine, etc,) marine forecasters utilize numerical guidance and other (local, satellite imagery, etc.) observations to make nowcasts and short-term forecasts - NESDIS provides archives for prediction fields Issues - who will provide observing system stewardship/ownership? - who will be the marine forecasters? - how will system be coordinated (managed)? - who are the sponsors that will provide support? III. INTERNAL CONOPS (NAVO, NRL, NOAA (NRL, NCEP, NOS, NESDIS), et al.) for Seasonal, Ensemble-Based, Mesoscale Ocean Forecast System (SEBMOFS) (we will have to work on a better acronym) NAVOCEANO POC: Frank Bub, NAVOCEANO, , frank.bub@navy.mil Note: while the PPP-GOMEX work concentrates on the Gulf of Mexico, NAVOCEANO must be able to apply this capability both there in support of CASE-EJIP and in other parts of the world that are of Navy interest.

10 US IOOS Modeling Steering Team Guidance Modeling Steering Team Membership/Representation: Approximately total members Super Regional Federal and non-federal Programmatic and modeler (physical and ecological) Modeling Steering Team Expectations/Responsibilities: Modeling Strategy is expected to take months to develop. Expect bi-monthly calls initially. As progress and assignments are undertaken, call frequency may decrease to monthly. Be a representative for your assigned super-region. Represent the needs of all of the stakeholders involved; Communicate with super-regional stakeholders about what the group is doing and ensure you can represent them well; Participate in quarterly open forum calls for all interested regional members to discuss the development of the strategy and ensure it is on track with intended goals Assist in gathering input for consideration in the strategy Analyze input for the strategy Expect some writing assignments to develop the strategy Process will start with the plan outlined in the white paper, but will be open to modification once steering team is in place