NOAA Operational Forecast System Gulf of Mexico, Demonstration since Sep 1999; Operational since Sep 2004:

Transcription

1 NOAA Operational Forecast System Gulf of Mexico, Demonstration since Sep 1999; Operational since Sep 2004: An Operational forecast of impact: 0-3 days and a prediction of likelihood of a bloom for mgmt Bulletin to managers and public advisory on web Conditions forecast for public GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 1 November 2007

2 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 2 November 2007 Operational HAB Forecasts Problem: Advance warning of HABs for shellfisheries, public health, economic impacts Objective: Operational forecasts of several days in all critical areas. A Solution: Partnership of Fed/State/Regional/Research to achieve operational requirements The HAB Forecast System is most visible as the HAB Bulletin. The system provides synthesis and analysis of data and models (not the raw data and models).

3 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 3 November 2007 What makes an Operational System? Institutionally supported (institutions don t usually retire, move, or change fields). Implies stable funding and personnel mgmt. operations (eastern Gulf/Florida) run by NOAA operational center (CO- OPS) Demonstration Texas run by NOAA research, but piggy-backed on operational resources Produced on a regular schedule with accountability. Mon and Thurs during HAB, Tues during non-hab Personnel available 8x5 for mgmt queries SOP s, personnel training manuals Redundancy in capabilites, backup options Reliable (redundancy, backup, operates during holidays) Technical support for unusual problems requests (discolored water, UME s, etc.) Manager manuals, public information sites A model set up to run every morning is not necessarily operational.

4 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 4 November 2007 What are the Forecasts? Nowcast: There is a HAB, where is it today? location and transport problem Forecast: There is a HAB, where will it be in the next few days, what will be the impact? location and transport problem Impact problem (location, winds, health response) Prediction (limited capability at present): When will HAB initiate or dissipate? Will the HAB still be here next month? Potential severity No HAB today, but HAB next week/month? These are both ecological modeling problems

5 What is the value of the Gulf of Mexico system to managers? More efficient sampling Where and when to sample, HAB fields located Early warning of problems (identified before reaching the coast, especially in SW Florida, where respiratory problem is significant) Supporting information for decisions to close areas Closer to early warning for NW Florida More public information Strongly endorsed by Florida Division of Aquaculture GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 5 November 2007

6 For Forecast (or many ecological) models, observations need to be interpreted for assimilation GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 6 November 2007 Remote sensing sensors Models In situ samples HABIOS support For improved observations & models HAB Bulletin Analysts Synthesis of Data and Models through Analysis Information to Managers Management Actions Assessment for Forecasts

7 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 7 November 2007 Also public information; example from Florida: Public notice A harmful algal bloom has been identified from northern Pinellas to northern Lee County. Patchy very low to high impacts possible in Pinellas and northern Sarasota Counties every afternoon through Thursday. Patchy very low to moderate impacts are possible in southern Hillsborough and Manatee Counties every afternoon through Thursday. Dead fish have been reported in the past few days from central Pinellas to southern Manatee County. Information only on verified HABs No jargon, specific wording

8 Forecasts: Where was/is it? Toxin (Cell) concentrations, imagery What was/is its movement? Imagery, currents, etc. What is the impact: Heuristic environmental model Analysis goes into: Creating HAB fields Model interpretation (transport) Wind forecast interpretation (model vs local) GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 8 November 2007

9 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 9 November 2007 Forecasting Transport Different models are used 1-D model in Florida TGLO + TABs in Texas

10 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 10 November 2007 Evaluation of Modifications in Models Assessment of new transport models

11 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 11 November 2007 Evaluation of forecasts, important part of operational system NOAA Operational system, eastern Gulf of Mexico: Accuracy is high because of low resolution, better data is needed to improve resolution

12 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 12 November 2007 Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast System: Concept of Operations Research (separate program) Transition (Development) Preoperations Operations Validation Develop concepts, models, sensors NOAA-funded external (ECOHAB/ MERHAB, OHHI) NOAA internal (NMFS, OAR, NOS) Other funded programs (NSF, NASA, EPA) Forecast development, Transfer models Technical Oversight Group Linkage to HABIOS group Product types, Training matl, Analysts, Data integration, Data access Forecasts (bulletins), Respond to users, Access and run data sets, User interaction Forecast evaluation, Product usefulness, Product effectiveness, Annual User feedback User Requirements Key Users Group State, Federal, other management agencies (State Depts of Health, Fisheries; Nat l Marine Sanctuaries, Protected Species)

13 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 13 November 2007 Requirements, Key users Key Users for Gulf of Mexico: State Marine Resource Agencies (FL DOACS, FWRI, TPWD, etc.) State Depts of Health County Health Depts State/County Environmental Depts Federal Resource Mgmts (Marine Mammals, Natl Marine Sanctuaries, NOAA HAZMAT) Other (non-research) groups who have concerns: Chambers of Commerce Tourism boards Local government Shellfish industry Public

14 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 14 November 2007 Parts of Operational Regional HAB forecast Requirements These are done for Gulf Identify Key Users Product of use to managers Requirement identified by state/regional partners State data available Product in usable format for partners Transition Key Users Group (Need to add more Public Health) Technical Oversight Group (Make some technical help more formal, e.g. TGLO, HABIOS link) Transition necessary components (biological, discussed later) Implement models Establish data exchange (available for cell counts, circulation models) Develop training materials, rule books Train analysts Operations: Skill/usefulness assessment Review with partners for product changes and improvement Maintain technical support Validation: Assessment of new research to improve quality (Technical oversight,potential HABIOS link) Skill assessment Usability Assessment Product Review

15 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 15 November 2007 User requirements Forecast Requirements by Managers Concerns False positives, false negatives, correct interpretation Product type to meet requirements This must be achieved with current demonstrated knowledge/capabilities. Transition effort, not a research effort. Product format (e.g. PDF, GIS, analysis on-call)

16 Forecast Recommendations for GCOOS HABIOS: design needs Location: insufficient resolution to initialize forecasts to meet many needs, public, commerce, public health (GOM Alliance mtg at Naples, etc.) Validation: data to assure rigorous validation improves confidence, identifies needs Ecological Model transformation: cannot forecast with a conceptual model Public Health Data/Models: implement models for public health impacts GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 16 November 2007

17 Location for Initialization and Validation Location: 1) Resolution of HABs along and near the coast at +10 km d -1 to initialize current satellite and cell counts resolutions at coast of km d-1; insufficient for many public health requirements. Critical areas may require 1-4 km d -1. 2) Near-real time respiratory irritation. Measure a variable being forecast. 3) Resolution of HABs at key sites in or near estuaries in order to forecast HABs at shellfish beds. Forecasts currently possible outside estuaries. 4) Location of HABs offshore at critical initiation/transport sites. Surface observations do not find all HABs before landfall GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 17 November 2007

18 Validation (necessary for any forecasts) 1) Locations, as described above. Forecasts of transport, extent, area, and intensification can be validated by location data collected for initialization. 2) Respiratory irritation data. presence and absence of respiratory irritation/impact at least 10 km d -1, as well as critical beaches. 3) Shellfish toxin levels. Access to shellfish closures that are documented by tissue samples would aid in validation of forecasts over these areas. GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 18 November 2007

19 GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 19 November 2007 Environmental Models 1) Standard forms for circulation models. Real-time access Currents in standard formats Uncertainties 2) Real-time comparison of observed/modeled currents. Needed for forecasters to evaluate each model for the current event. 3) Characterization of uncertainty of winds from met models Needed for circulation models Winds used directly in some forecasts, needed for uncertainty Local forecasts (e.g. NDFD) vs modeled 4) Biological model transformation to operations. Mechanism to transform usable (current and future) biological models from conceptual to heuristic for operations. Initiation, intensification (No initiation for Texas & Florida Panhandle) Dissipation Seasonal forecasts (as available)

20 Public Health Impact Data Predicting human and animal health effects are key activities. Data and models are required. 1) Near real-time respiratory irritation data collected by lifeguards. 2) Data and models on: Emergency room visits / hospital admissions respiratory irritation Local physician records for asthma exacerbations 3) Review of calls to the Poison Information Center hotline 4) Review of reports collected in the Harmful Algal Bloom-related Illness Surveillance System (HABISS). 5) Review of admissions to veterinary clinics and/or animal hospitals. 6) Review of unusual mortality events. 7) Models of illness severities for brevetoxin-induced respiratory ailments Currently Only Beach Respiratory Impact is Forecast GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 20 November 2007

21 NOAA Operational Forecast System Gulf of Mexico: with higher resolution data, model information, forecasts with higher resolution, certainty, and public confidence Bulletin to managers and public advisory on web GCOOS HABIOS Forecast Plan 21 November 2007