Ireland: Predictions. NMP Current closures ASP AZP DSP PSP

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1 HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae] Ireland: Predictions ASP event: High - steady continuous increase AZP event: High/mod - due to constant fluctuation DSP event: Low/mod low but slow increase PSP event: Low - steady (site specific ) Week 14: April 1 st 7 th 2018 Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Week 35: 21 st - 27 h Aug, 2016 NMP Current closures ASP AZP DSP PSP General Wk. 14 Spring conditions allowing for seasonal increase in non toxic and toxic species. Definitely beginning of high vigilance period for some of the annual problematic species. ASP: High cell levels are climbing consistently and would be expected to continue. Some sites in the south west now showing low levels of this seasonal toxin. There may be an unpredictable dampening effect on toxin levels due to high levels of non toxic species but this could change rapidly. Highest caution advised as seasonal toxic closures very feasible. AZP: High/moderate precaution level is still advised with this difficult species as a necessary precaution. Potential cell levels still fluctuating weekly with no fixed trend. Issues with this toxin can occur suddenly and acutely. DSP: Low but increasing - Still early to have a sudden issue with this group but individual cells now appearing in some sites. This species does not need to reach high levels to cause potential issues. It would be the normal seasonal pattern to expect and prepare for a rise in cell levels within the next 4-6 weeks. PSP: Same as 4 months- Stable seasonal pattern of very low cell levels and low likelihood of issues establishing.current environmental conditions and patterns are not indicated to be favourable for bloom issues. Blooms: No current significant issues recorded with any of the historically occurring problematic species. Any unusual water discoloration should be noted and regional labs contacted if concerned /regarding possible need for additional sampling. All feedback is welcome at Joe.Silke@Marine.ie.

2 HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae] AZP National Monitoring Programme HISTORIC TRENDS DSP PTX ASP PSP Levels from week 1 to present week. Regulatory limit ASP events: mid-march to early May AZP events: April to December DSP events: May to December PSP events: June to mid-july and end September; only in Cork Harbour

3 Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] DSP and Dinophysis sp. current trends Phytoplankton species 3 wks. All levels of DSP biotoxin recorded- 3 wks. Current closures levels DSP 0.16 µg/g Comment Wk Low to negligible cells continue to be observed in the current steady seasonal trend. This would not be expected to change rapidly but we are at the beginning of the historical season of occurrence so additional long range caution advised.

4 Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] AZP and Azadinium like species current trends Phytoplankton species 3 wks. All levels of AZP biotoxin recorded - 3 wks. Current closures levels AZP 0.16 µg/g Comments Wk. 14 Potential cell levels, currently indicating an increase, showing constant fluctuation in levels with no stable predictable patterns. High caution unfortunately must be continued as advise with this difficult species.

5 Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] Phytoplankton species 3 wks. ASP and Pseudo nitzschia sp. current trends ASP All levels of ASP biotoxin recorded - 3 wks. Current closures levels ASP 20 µg/g Comments Wk. 14 Some Pseudo nitzschia species are now causing quantifiable toxic issues in some areas as predicted. This seasonal situation would be expected to get worse before it gets better based on current indications. Highest caution and testing advised.

6 Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] PSP and Alexandrium sp. current trends Phytoplankton species 3 wks. All levels of PSP biotoxin recorded - 3 wks. Current closures levels PSP 800 µg/kg Comments Wk. 14 Low probability of sudden issues at this time of year. Despite the low presence of cells in some sites, much higher levels of cells would historically be needed to cause potential issues.

7 Ireland Satellite data: surface chlorophyll and temperature maps Most up to date available satellite data What phytoplankton were blooming at inshore coastal sites last week? Rank Region Species Rounded Count 1 east Thalassiosira spp east Skeletonema spp east Melosira spp east Centric Diatom east Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp north Skeletonema spp north Thalassiosira spp north Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp north Thalassiosira 20-50um north Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima south Odontella aurita south Thalassiosira spp south Pennate diatom south Thalassiosira <20um south Odontella alternans 3000 Phytoplankton cell levels, both in terms of abundance and diversity increasing rapidly in some in sites, particularly in far southerly and northerly areas. Spat and zooplankton also now showing a presence. Diatoms still dominating most regions. NW coast (M4) Below average by 0.05 C wk13 SW coast (M3) Unavailable wk13 SE coast (M5) Below average by 0.78 C wk13 1 southwest Thalassiosira spp southwest Skeletonema spp southwest Chaetoceros socialis southwest Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp southwest Pseudo-nitzschia seriata complex west Thalassiosira spp west Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp west Azadinium/heterocapsa spp west Pennate diatom west Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima 33000

8 Ireland Fish killing phytoplankton Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] Karenia mikimotoi (old name: Gyrodinium aureolum) Karenia mikimotoi bloom warning level very low Current general conditions: Wk. 14 Spring bloom type conditions continuing in some sites, the southwest and far north in particular, with strong growth levels in non toxic diatom species. High biomass beginning to appear in some sites despite the slightly colder temperatures. Currently there are no problematic bloom species at concern levels but this is now the beginning of the season to increase caution and vigilance. Karenia mikimotoi Heterocapsa spp. Noctiluca scintillans Alexandrium spp. Any part of coastline Has tended,in past,to be very site specific

9 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week 23: 31 May 6 June, 2015 Week runs from Sunday to Saturday SOUTHWEST: Bantry Bay The maps show the most likely transport pathways for the next 3 days of phytoplankton found along the presented transects (black lines off Mizen Head and the Mouth of Bantry Bay) and water depths (bottom, 20 metres and surface) Forecast for the next 3 days Bottom water 20 metres Surface water Dominant mixed northerly water movements at all depths allowing for transport of outer bay waters to exposed southern facing shore areas. Reddish colours represent areas where phytoplankton remain longest Cooler colours represent areas where phytoplankton remain for shorter periods Bottom and deeper waters indicating upwelling into inner bay areas possible from outer bay zones.

10 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Bantry Bay 3 day estimated water flows at the mouth and mid-bay sections of Bantry Bay Forecast for next 3 days T1 Shot Head cross section: Continuation of dominance of upwelling conditions in inner bay allowing the potential of outer bay elements to be effectively transported into inner bay areas. Flow (m 3 s -1 ) m Mouth cross section: Dominance of inner bay transport in centre of bay regions IN T m Water surface OUT Depth CURRENT inflow Inflow is 1% lower than the Long Term Mean at Shot Head Inflow is 1% higher than the Long Term Mean at mouth of Bay -100 Sea bed

11 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway WEST: Killary Harbour Forecast for the next 3 days Week 23: 31 May 6 June, 2015 Week runs from Sunday to Saturday The maps show the most likely transport pathways for the next 3 days of phytoplankton found along the presented transects i.e. white lines off Aughrus Point and the Mouth of Killary Harbour, and water depths (bottom, 20 metres and surface) Bottom water 20 metres Surface water Cleggan Mixed northerly flows of well mixed waters dominating all depths.possibilities of outer bay waters pushed onshore to exposed sites moderate. Reddish colours represent areas where phytoplankton remain longest Cooler colours represent areas where phytoplankton remain for shorter periods Killary Similar to last week with deeper depths showing most possibilities of greatest transportation inshore, possibly through upwelling, but in general low transportation to inner bay areas expected.

12 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Killary Harbour - 3 day estimated water flows at the mouth of Killary Harbour Forecast for next 3 days T1 Killary Harbour Killary Harbour Mouth cross section: Similar predictions to last week with a weak upwelling into middle bay areas, potentially wind driven factors dominant. Flow (m 3 s -1 ) IN 20 T OUT Depth 23 m Water surface CURRENT inflow Inflow is 17% less than the Long Term Mean at mouth of Bay

13 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway West Coast - 3 day estimated water flows along a transect off Aughrus Point Killary Harbour Forecast for next 3 days T1 Cleggan transect Aughrus Point Cleggan section: Again strong well mixed northerly flows dominant in offshore areas with low levels of southerly flowing waters in near shore areas. Flow (m 3 s -1 ) northward flow T m southward flow Depth Water surface 110 m