Ireland: Predictions. NMP Current closures ASP AZP DSP PSP

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1 HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae] Ireland: Predictions ASP event: Moderate High - increasing steadily. AZP event: Highest - Ongoing DSP event: High ongoing PSP event: Low decreasing ( - site specific ) Week 40: Sept 30 rd October 6 th 2018 Week runs from Sunday to Saturday NMP Current closures ASP AZP DSP PSP ASP: Moderate and increasing. 6 week trend -Seasonal increase slowly continuing week on week, no acute jumps in levels indicated but this is the time for additional caution levels. Toxin levels currently very low. AZP: Highest caution level Same as last 5 weeks with this difficult to predict species, ongoing issues and suitable onshore water transportation indicated. This species has caused sudden acute issues in the past. Current 3 week trend increase in geographical spread of very low level toxins. DSP: High - Same situation as last week -Still ongoing but with continued indication for the start of the seasonal decline. While specific sites may currently be affected, all adjacent clear sites should maintain highest caution. Patch and bounce increase in toxins have occurred historically at the end of the summer toxin season- high caution advised during this shoulder period until the toxin totally clears. PSP: Steady 6 week trend lower (decreasing) level of caution.stable seasonal pattern of low cell levels and low likelihood of issues establishing unless suitable environmental conditions become established. Blooms: Moderate to low, decreasing Karenia mikimotoi, potentially tracking northerly but decreasing in cell levels. All sites to maintain highest caution. This species has an historic record of causing substantial issues when present in high levels. Any unusual water discoloration should be noted and regional labs contacted if concerned /regarding possible need for additional sampling. All feedback is welcome at Joe.Silke@Marine.ie.

2 HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae] AZP National Monitoring Programme HISTORIC TRENDS DSP PTX ASP PSP Levels from week 1 to present week. Regulatory limit ASP events: mid-march to early May AZP events: April to December DSP events: May to December PSP events: June to mid-july and end September; only in Cork Harbour

3 Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] DSP and Dinophysis sp. current trends Phytoplankton species 3 wks. All levels of DSP biotoxin recorded- 3 wks. Current closures levels DSP 0.16 µg/g Comment Wk. 40 ongoing issues in some sites but beginning to decline overall. High caution is advised in all affected sites and adjacent areas during this period and for the next few weeks until Dinophysis species levels completely decline. Patches and residual toxin level bounces in declining trends have occurred historically in some sites.

4 Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] AZP and Azadinium like species current trends Phytoplankton species 3 wks. All levels of AZP biotoxin recorded - 3 wks. Current closures levels AZP 0.16 µg/g Comments Wk. 40 Highest Same as last 5 weeks - issues ongoing - Continued increase in potential cell levels around the coastline and related toxins. All open adjacent sites should be particularly vigilant.

5 Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] Phytoplankton species 3 wks. ASP and Pseudo nitzschia sp. current trends ASP All levels of ASP biotoxin recorded - 3 wks. Current closures levels ASP 20 µg/g Comments Wk week slow stable climbing trend. Cell levels remain below impact levels with this group,but are now rising in the seasonal cycle. No immediate treat is indicated but the current trend is indicative of the normal seasonal growth which has lead to issues.

6 Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] PSP and Alexandrium sp. current trends Phytoplankton species 3 wks. All levels of PSP biotoxin recorded - 3 wks. Current closures levels PSP 800 µg/kg Comments Wk week steady trend - low potential,and declining, due to environmental conditions. Toxic bloom events are strongly linked to localised suitable environmental conditions.

7 Ireland Fish killing phytoplankton Distribution maps [current status of harmful and toxic algae] Current general conditions: Wk. 40 Karenia mikimotoi (old name: Gyrodinium aureolum) Karenia mikimotoi Moderate to low decreasing 7 week trend - The potential treat from Karenia mikimotoi declining. Wind strength, direction and duration will influence the arrival or breakup of potential blooms. Tracking the reported sample results seem to be indicating a 3 week northerly movement track. This species has been recorded as causing stock stress and mortalities in previous years when levels were high and environmental conditions allowed the bloom to reside in the bay areas for prolonged period of days. The main physical stressor is potentially deoxygenation. Stocks should be monitored in affected areas i.e. all shellfish, finfish, lobster keeper pots, shellfish stored on shorelines. Phaeocystis species Karenia mikimotoi Heterocapsa spp. Noctiluca scintillans Alexandrium spp. Any part of coastline Has tended,in past,to be very site specific

8 Ireland Satellite data: surface chlorophyll and temperature maps Week 40 Similar to the last 2 weeks -Continued rise in diatom species in general. Bloom issues of summer seasonal species declining as a potential treat in most areas. All areas should still maintain a careful watch for any problematic species dominance. NW coast (M4) Unavailable wk38 SW coast (M3) Below average by 0.21 C wk38 SE coast (M5) Above average by 0.20 C wk38 What phytoplankton were blooming at inshore coastal sites last week? Rank Region Species Rounded Count 1 East Oxyrrhis spp East Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp East Leptocylindrus danicus East Eucampia spp East Pseudo-nitzschia delicatissima 2000 complex 1 North-West Asterionellopsis spp North-West Leptocylindrus minimus North-West Skeletonema spp North-West Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp North-West Haptophytes North-West Pennate diatom South Pseudo-nitzschia delicatissima complex 2 South Pseudo-nitzschia seriata complex 3 South Lauderia / Detonula sp South Licmophora spp South Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp South-East Microflagellate spp South-East Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp South-East Leptocylindrus danicus South-East Lauderia / Detonula sp South-East Centric diatom South-West Pennate diatom South-West Licmophora spp South-West Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima 4 South-West Lauderia / Detonula sp South-West Pseudo-nitzschia seriata complex 1 West Skeletonema spp West Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp West Pennate diatom West Prorocentrum micans West Dictyocha fibula West North-west Asterionellopsis spp West North-west Skeletonema spp West North-west Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp West North-west Rhizosolenia spp West North-west Guinardia delicatula 77000

9 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Bantry Bay 3 day estimated water flows at the mouth and mid-bay sections of Bantry Bay Forecast for next 3 days Shot Head cross section: High transportation of waters from outerbay areas, particularly on Southern shorelines. T1 Flow (m 3 s -1 ) IN m 20 m T2 T1 Mouth cross section: Down welling conditions possible in outer bay areas-good transportation from offshore waters into inner bay areas, particularly on North facing shorelines OUT Depth Sea bed Water surface CURRENT inflow Inflow is 3 % less than Long Term Mean at Shot Head Inflow is 6% less than Long Term Mean at mouth of Bay

10 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week 23: 31 May 6 June, 2015 Week runs from Sunday to Saturday SOUTHWEST: Bantry Bay The maps show the most likely transport pathways for the next 3 days of phytoplankton found along the presented transects (black lines off Mizen Head and the Mouth of Bantry Bay) and water depths (bottom, 20 metres and surface) Forecast for the next 3 days Bottom water 20 metres Surface water Further weakening of clear dominant water movement patterns, with mixed directional transportation, at lower strengths in all areas,. Reddish colours represent areas where phytoplankton remain longest Cooler colours represent areas where phytoplankton remain for shorter periods Potential for some moderate to weak downwelling in inner bay areas, but low water movements in general.

11 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway West Coast - 3 day estimated water flows along a transect off Aughrus Point Killary Harbour Forecast for next 3 days T1 Aughrus Point Cleggan transect Flow (m 3 s -1 ) northward flow T m southward flow Depth Water surface 110 m Cleggan section:; Similar to last week, with slight decrease in intensities -Continued strong dominant Northerly flows of offshore waters, at all depths, with squeezed weaker Southerly movement of waters in near shore areas. High transportation of well mixed waters offshore.

12 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway WEST: Killary Harbour Forecast for the next 3 days Week 23: 31 May 6 June, 2015 Week runs from Sunday to Saturday The maps show the most likely transport pathways for the next 3 days of phytoplankton found along the presented transects i.e. white lines off Aughrus Point and the Mouth of Killary Harbour, and water depths (bottom, 20 metres and surface) Bottom water 20 metres Surface water Cleggan No clear settled pattern in water movement directions but onshore transportation indicated on exposed shores at all depths. Reddish colours represent areas where phytoplankton remain longest Cooler colours represent areas where phytoplankton remain for shorter periods Killary Decreased strength in water movement and transportation, particularly as water depth decreases and in inshore sheltered areas,

13 Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Killary Harbour - 3 day estimated water flows at the mouth of Killary Harbour Forecast for next 3 days Killary Harbour T1 Killary Harbour Mouth cross section: Indications of increased transportation into inner bay areas, with increasing water movements inward on Southern shores.. Flow (m 3 s -1 ) IN 20 T m OUT Depth CURRENT inflow Water surface Inflow is 5% less than average long term mean at mouth of Bay