2015 Hurricane Season Summary for Eastern Canada Impacts and Operational Notes

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1 2015 Hurricane Season Summary for Eastern Canada Impacts and Operational Notes John Parker Canadian Hurricane Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada April, 2016

2 Storms affecting Canadian territory in 2015 Tropical Storm Ana Tropical Storm Claudette Tropical Storm Henri Hurricane Joaquin

3 Storm and Bulletin summary BULLETIN SUMMARIES Unique Hurricane Information Statements (WOCN3X/4X CWHX) Number of Storms Represented by these Bulletins

4 Storms affecting Canadian territory in 2015

5 Storms affecting Canadian territory in 2015 Impacts to Canadian territory from storms of tropical origin were minimal compared to many other hurricane seasons. Two storms, Ana and Joaquin, caused significant forecast challenges. Ana was a rainfall challenge for Nova Scotia due to uncertainty in organization of the system as it approached. Joaquin was a rainfall challenge due to tremendous track uncertainty early in the forecast process.

6 Track/Satellite Tropical Storm Ana

7 Synoptic Summary Formed as a subtropical storm north of the Bahamas in the evening of May 7 th. Intensified to a 50 knot tropical storm then weakened before landfall in South Carolina. Made landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC during the morning of May 10 th. Ana weakened to a tropical depression (TD) later on May 10. TD Ana moved over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia before moving back out into the Atlantic late on May11 th and degenerating to a remnant low. The remnant low merged with a front near southwestern Nova Scotia late on May 12 th.

8 Impacts/Notes Impacts to Canadian territory were minimal Forecast challenge early on whether the storm would be continuing on into Atlantic Canada as a TC or merging with frontal system Slight enhancement of rainfall possible over southwestern Nova Scotia as the remnant low merged with a front. Yarmouth reported showers and thundershowers in the evening of May 12 th.

9 Track/Satellite Tropical Storm Claudette

10 Synoptic Summary Tropical Storm Claudette formed from a surface low east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on July 13 th. Reached its maximum intensity of 45 knots on the afternoon of July 13 th. Weakened on July 14 th while moving northeastward and became a remnant low that evening. Remnant low became absorbed by a front south of Newfoundland on July 15 th.

11 Impacts/Notes Gale-force winds over parts of the southeastern Maritime marine areas. Wave heights generally 4 to 5 metres over Laurentian Fan and Banquereau marine areas with peak waves 7 to 9 metres. Wave heights high due to wave resonance. Heavy showers and gusty winds over southeastern Newfoundland. Flight cancellations at St. Johns International Airport due to rain and fog.

12 Track/Satellite Tropical Storm Henri

13 Synoptic Summary Tropical Storm Henri formed southeast of Bermuda on September 9 th. Reached maximum intensity of 45 knots on September 10 th while moving northward. The circulation degraded on Sept. 11 th as the storm interacted with a trough. Early on Sept. 12 th, the system lost its closed centre and merged with a non-tropical low south of Atlantic Canada.

14 Impacts/Notes Gale-force winds were observed over the Grand Banks. Waves were generally in the 2 to 3 metre range offshore with peak waves of 4 to 5 metres. A period of rain and gusty winds occurred over the eastern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland.

15 Track/Satellite Hurricane Joaquin

16 Synoptic Summary Hurricane Joaquin formed from a non-tropical low about 650 km southwest of Bermuda on Sept. 28 th. Joaquin reached hurricane strength on Sept. 30 th, and a category 4 storm late on Oct. 1 st. Joaquin weakened slightly and moved through the Bahamas on Oct. 2 nd causing extensive damage. Joaquin accelerated northeastward away from the Bahamas on Oct. 3 rd and 4 th.

17 Synoptic Summary Joaquin re-intensified to category 4 strength on Oct. 4 th with maximum sustained winds of 250 km/h. Later on Oct. 4 th, Joaquin began to weaken and on Oct. 5 th, passed 100 km west-northwest of Bermuda as a category 2 storm. Joaquin continued to weaken and tracked northeastward and then east-northeastward around an area of high pressure on Oct. 6 th. Hurricane Joaquin tracked south of the Atlantic Canadian marine areas at hurricane strength before weakening to a tropical storm well southeast of the Grand Banks on Oct. 7 th.

18 Forecast Challenges Early in the forecast process the track forecast of Joaquin was highly uncertain with two track scenarios. One track scenario had high trough interaction and involved landfall on the US East Coast. This could have lead to significant rainfall in southern Ontario and Quebec. The other scenario had less trough interaction and a turn to the northeast offshore into the Atlantic and little impact to land. Offshore track became increasingly likely on October 2 nd.

19 Forecast Challenges Storm conditions and impacts became very predictable on October 3 rd once the offshore forecast track became apparent. As a result, the decision was made to not message on Joaquin with regularly scheduled bulletins from the CHC. In addition, since the impacts were confidently forecast and climatologically common in Atlantic Canada in October, resources from the CHC were not required to inform Canadians on Joaquin s impacts.

20 Impacts/Notes Gale-force winds occurred over the southern-most parts of the Scotian Slope and Grand Banks. Waves over the southern-most waters were generally 3 to 4 metres with peak waves of 5 to 7 metres. Large swell waves reached the southern shores of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. These waves were generally near 2 metres and peak waves were near 4 metres. Of note, the impacts of these waves at the shore would have been much greater had Joaquin occurred during the summer boating/swimming season. Strong rip currents likely occurred at the beaches.

21 Thank you Graçias

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