Percentage of normal rainfall for August 2017 Departure from average air temperature for August 2017

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Percentage of normal rainfall for August 2017 Departure from average air temperature for August 2017"

Transcription

1 New Zealand Climate Update No 219, August 2017 Current climate August 2017 Overall, mean sea level pressure was lower than normal over and to the west of New Zealand during August while higher than normal mean sea level pressure occurred offshore to the east. These pressure patterns resulted in more northerly wind flows across the country, resulting in warmer than average temperatures for the time of year. Several isolated storm events brought large amounts of rain to parts of the country resulting in flooding, most notably around Christchurch and New Plymouth. Percentage of normal rainfall for August 2017 Departure from average air temperature for August 2017 End of month water balance in the pasture root zone for an average soil type where the available water capacity is taken to be 150 mm.

2 Rainfall: Well above normal rainfall (> 149%) in central and western areas of the North Island, with below normal rainfall (50-79%) for the east. In the South Island, rainfall was well below normal (< 50%) in eastern Otago and Southland, but above normal ( %) in Fiordland, central parts of the West Coast and Canterbury, and to the very north. Temperature: Third-warmest August on record. Above average (+0.51 C to C) to well above average (> C) temperatures for almost the entire country. Sunshine: Sunshine hours were near normal (90-109%) or above normal ( %) for much of the country. Below normal sunshine (75-89%) occurred in central and southern parts of the North Island, and the very northern portion of the South Island Soil Moisture: As at 1 September 2017, soil moisture levels were near normal for virtually the entire country. Soil moisture was slightly higher than normal in Kaikoura through western Marlborough, as well as north of Dunedin through to Oamaru.

3 Global setting: August 2017 ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions were still present in the tropical Pacific during August However, like July, several oceanic and atmospheric patterns, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and decreasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, leaned toward La Niña. The latest weekly seasurface and ocean subsurface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are slightly below normal (i.e. on the La Niña side of neutral). The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently positive (+0.4, i.e. on the La Niña side of neutral) and large-scale circulation anomalies along the equator are consistent with patterns usually associated with a La Niña state. On the other hand, La Niña-like rainfall and convection anomalies in the west Pacific were not as strong in August as they were in July. International guidance favours a persistence of ENSO neutral conditions over the next three-month period (65% chance for September November 2017). While ENSO-neutral conditions remain the most likely outcome through the end of 2017, recent observations indicate that the ocean and atmosphere may continue to periodically exhibit La Niña-like signatures. Sea Surface Temperatures Coastal waters remain generally warmer than average all around the country and positive anomalies increased during the final week of August, especially near the eastern and northern North Island. The anomaly in the NZ box (160 E-170 W, S) is currently nearing +0.6 o C. Ocean waters are still much warmer than average across the Tasman Sea, particularly in the south and west. Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 20 August 16 September Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (

4 Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: August SOI 0.4; June - August average 0.1 Differences from average August surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

5 Outlook: September November 2017 Temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand (55% to 65% chance for above average temperatures). Nevertheless, frosts and cool snaps are still possible during spring. Coastal water temperatures around New Zealand are forecast to remain above average over the next three-month period. Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance) for the North Island and the north of the South Island and most likely to be near normal (45% chance) for all remaining regions of New Zealand. Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40%) or above normal (35-40% chance) for the North Island and the north of the South Island. Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (45% chance) in the east and west of the South Island. Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, September November 2017.

6 The climate we predicted (June 2017 August 2017) and what happened The atmospheric circulation around New Zealand was forecast to favour more anticyclonic flows (high pressure) than normal to start the three month period of June August 2017, bringing extended periods of settled weather. For June August 2017 as a whole, the atmospheric circulation around New Zealand was forecast to favour slightly more westerly wind flows than normal, but variable circulation patterns were to be expected over the course of the winter season. Actual pressures were higher than normal to the southeast of the country and near normal across New Zealand. There was no significant airflow anomaly. Predicted air temperature: June August 2017 temperatures were about equally likely to be above average or near average for all regions of New Zealand. Outcome: Actual temperatures were near average for much of the country. Pockets of above average temperature were observed in the Bay of Plenty, Coromandel and parts of the West Coast. Predicted rainfall: June August 2017 rainfall totals were likely to be near normal or below normal in the north of the North Island and east of the South Island. For all remaining regions of New Zealand, winter rainfall totals were most likely to be near normal. Outcome: Actual rainfall was near normal for much of the country. Above normal rainfall was recorded for eastern parts of the South Island from Christchurch down to Balclutha. For more information about NIWA s climate work, visit:

New Zealand Climate Update No 221, October 2017 Current climate October 2017

New Zealand Climate Update No 221, October 2017 Current climate October 2017 New Zealand Climate Update No 221, October 2017 Current climate October 2017 October 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas. This consistent

More information

Percentage of normal rainfall for April 2018 Departure from average air temperature for April 2018

Percentage of normal rainfall for April 2018 Departure from average air temperature for April 2018 New Zealand Climate Update No 227, May 2018 Current climate April 2018 Overall, April 2018 was characterised by lower pressure than normal over and to the southeast of New Zealand. Unlike the first three

More information

New Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017

New Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017 New Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017 December 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas. This pressure

More information

New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017

New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017 New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017 November 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas, particularly

More information

New Zealand Climate Update No 226, April 2018 Current climate March 2018

New Zealand Climate Update No 226, April 2018 Current climate March 2018 New Zealand Climate Update No 226, April 2018 Current climate March 2018 March 2018 was characterised by significantly higher pressure than normal to the east of New Zealand. This pressure pattern, in

More information

NIWA Outlook: September October November 2013

NIWA Outlook: September October November 2013 September-November 2013 Issued: 30 August 2013 Hold mouse over links and press ctrl + left click to jump to the information you require: Overview Regional predictions for the next three months: Northland,

More information

NIWA Outlook: March-May 2015

NIWA Outlook: March-May 2015 March May 2015 Issued: 27 February 2015 Hold mouse over links and press ctrl + left click to jump to the information you require: Overview Regional predictions for the next three months: Northland, Auckland,

More information

NIWA Outlook: October - December 2015

NIWA Outlook: October - December 2015 October December 2015 Issued: 1 October 2015 Hold mouse over links and press ctrl + left click to jump to the information you require: Overview Regional predictions for the next three months: Northland,

More information

NIWA Outlook: April June 2019

NIWA Outlook: April June 2019 April June 2019 Issued: 28 March 2019 Hold mouse over links and press ctrl + left click to jump to the information you require: Outlook Summary Regional predictions for the next three months Northland,

More information

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 9 August 2018 ENSO Alert System Status:

More information

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 11 October 2018 ENSO Alert System

More information

NEW ZEALAND WEATHER. BRIEF REVIEW OF WINTER AND SPRING 1990 WINTER 1990 (Fig. 1) Weather and Climate (1991) 11: 31-36

NEW ZEALAND WEATHER. BRIEF REVIEW OF WINTER AND SPRING 1990 WINTER 1990 (Fig. 1) Weather and Climate (1991) 11: 31-36 Weather and Climate (1991) 11: 31-36 31 NEW ZEALAND WEATHER BRIEF REVIEW OF WINTER AND SPRING 1990 WINTER 1990 (Fig. 1) Winter 1990 was very dry in the far south. Northeasterlies brought sunny conditions

More information

NEW ZEALAND WEATHER. BRIEF REVIEW OF THE WEATHER WINTER 1989 (Fig. 1) MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS JUNE-AUGUST Weather and Climate (1990) 10: 27-31

NEW ZEALAND WEATHER. BRIEF REVIEW OF THE WEATHER WINTER 1989 (Fig. 1) MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS JUNE-AUGUST Weather and Climate (1990) 10: 27-31 Weather and Climate (1990) 10: 27-31 27 NEW ZEALAND WEATHER BRIEF REVIEW OF THE WEATHER (Fig. 1) WARMER THAN USUAL This was the third warmer than normal winter in a row, but not as warm as those of 1987

More information

Regional overview Autumn 2016

Regional overview Autumn 2016 Autumn 2016 (March to May inclusive) was drier than average for most of the region. The south and east of the Wairarapa were the driest areas with west coast areas being the wettest. Autumn rainfall The

More information

Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014

Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014 Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June

More information

Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society

Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society Three-month Climate Outlook For November 2017 January 2018 Issued on 31 October 2017 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More information

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015 ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

More information

KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT

KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT T KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT 2 ALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL http://www.met.gov.my DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIO Introduction Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast August 2018 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast August 2018 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast August 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College August 5, 2018 Summary: July 2018 will likely go down as one of the top five warmest July s on record for many

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

New Zealand Seasonal Fire Danger Outlook 2017/18

New Zealand Seasonal Fire Danger Outlook 2017/18 New Zealand Seasonal Fire Danger Outlook 2017/18 ISSUE: South Island, March 2018 Current fire danger situation & outlook: Looking back at February, it was a very unsettled month. The tropics directed New

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of

More information

Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Last Week s Rainfall

Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Last Week s Rainfall Last Week s Rainfall 1 Last Week s Surface Charts 2 Last month s Max Temp Forecasts: ACCESS Model Da te Model MxD1 MxD2 MxD3 MxD4 MxD5 MxD6 MxD7 MxD8 MxD9 MxD10 0 1- Aug- 18 ACC 15.4 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast November 2017 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast November 2017 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast November 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College November 7, 2017 Summary: October was relatively cool and wet north, while warm and very dry south. Dry conditions

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2018 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2018 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College October 4, 2018 Summary: Much of Washington, Oregon, coastal California and the Bay Area and delta region

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 4, 2017 July largely held true to forecast, although it ended with the start of one of the most extreme

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017)

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017) UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in April 2017 1.1 Inter monsoon conditions, characterised by afternoon showers and winds that are generally

More information

South & South East Asian Region:

South & South East Asian Region: Issued: 15 th December 2017 Valid Period: January June 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System

More information

Climate briefing. Wellington region, May Alex Pezza and Mike Thompson Environmental Science Department

Climate briefing. Wellington region, May Alex Pezza and Mike Thompson Environmental Science Department Climate briefing Wellington region, May 2016 Alex Pezza and Mike Thompson Environmental Science Department For more information, contact the Greater Wellington Regional Council: Wellington PO Box 11646

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017 ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

More information

Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013)

Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013) Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013) Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department

More information

Table 1. August average temperatures and departures from normal ( F) for selected cities.

Table 1. August average temperatures and departures from normal ( F) for selected cities. Climate Summary for Florida August 2016 Prepared by Lydia Stefanova and David Zierden Florida Climate Center, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida Online at: http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/products-services/summaries

More information

New Zealand Seasonal Fire Danger Outlook 2018/19

New Zealand Seasonal Fire Danger Outlook 2018/19 New Zealand Seasonal Fire Danger Outlook 2018/19 ISSUE: South Island, January 2019 Current fire danger situation & outlook: to moderate fire dangers and fire climate severity currently exist in most areas

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College February 5, 2018 Summary: For the majority of the month of January the persistent ridge of high pressure

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College April 4, 2018 Summary: A near Miracle March played out bringing cooler and wetter conditions to the majority

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first

More information

Monthly overview. Rainfall

Monthly overview. Rainfall Monthly overview 1 to 10 April 2018 Widespread rainfall continued to fall over most parts of the summer rainfall region during this period. Unseasonably good rain fell over the eastern half of the Northern

More information

NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Dr. Gerry Bell Lead Seasonal Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS Collaboration With National Hurricane Center/ NOAA/ NWS Hurricane Research

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University December 5, 2016 Well after an October that felt more like November, we just finished a November that

More information

NEW ZEALAND WEATHER. BRIEF REVIEW OF THE WEATHER WINTER 1991 (Fig. 1) CONTRASTING RAINFALL, COLD IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND

NEW ZEALAND WEATHER. BRIEF REVIEW OF THE WEATHER WINTER 1991 (Fig. 1) CONTRASTING RAINFALL, COLD IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND Weather and Climate (1992) 12: 47-52 47 NEW ZEALAND WEATHER BRIEF REVIEW OF THE WEATHER (Fig. 1) CONTRASTING RAINFALL, COLD IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND An El Nino event (negative phase of the

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017)

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017) UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in August 2017 1.1 Southwest Monsoon conditions continued to prevail in the region in August 2017. The

More information

Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio

Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Outline A Look Back At 2014 Spring 2015 So Far El Niño Update Climate Prediction

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 7, 2018 Summary: The ridge pattern that brought drier and warmer conditions from December through most

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University February 7, 2017 What a difference from last year at this time. Temperatures in January and February

More information

North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: August 2009

North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: August 2009 North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Nicholas.Bond@noaa.gov Last updated: August 2009 Summary. The North Pacific atmosphere-ocean system from fall 2008 through

More information

Analysis of Fall Transition Season (Sept-Early Dec) Why has the weather been so violent?

Analysis of Fall Transition Season (Sept-Early Dec) Why has the weather been so violent? WEATHER TOPICS Analysis of Fall Transition Season (Sept-Early Dec) 2009 Why has the weather been so violent? As can be seen by the following forecast map, the Fall Transition and early Winter Season of

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2019 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2019 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 4, 2019 Summary: December was mild and dry over much of the west, while the east was much warmer than

More information

September 2016 No. ICPAC/02/293 Bulletin Issue October 2016 Issue Number: ICPAC/02/294 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulleti

September 2016 No. ICPAC/02/293 Bulletin Issue October 2016 Issue Number: ICPAC/02/294 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulleti Bulletin Issue October 2016 Issue Number: ICPAC/02/294 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, For referencing within this bulletin, the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is generally

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 5, 2018 Summary: A persistent ridge of high pressure over the west in December produced strong inversions

More information

Climate Outlook and Review

Climate Outlook and Review Climate Outlook and Review September 2018 Author: Prof Roger C Stone Overview The European, UK, and US long-term climate models that focus on forecasting central Pacific sea surface temperatures are continuing

More information

Oregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017

Oregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017 Oregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017 Mountain snowpack continues to maintain significant levels for mid-april. By late March, statewide snowpack had declined to 118 percent of normal after starting

More information

Highlight: Support for a dry climate increasing.

Highlight: Support for a dry climate increasing. Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact

More information

Climate Outlook and Review

Climate Outlook and Review Climate Outlook and Review August 2018 Author: Prof Roger C Stone Overview The European, UK, and US long-term climate models that focus on forecasting central Pacific sea surface temperatures are continuing

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer into Harvest 2016

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer into Harvest 2016 Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer into Harvest 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University September 3, 2016 With school and football season starting a hint of fall is right on time

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College October 4, 2017 Summary: Typical variability in September temperatures with the onset of fall conditions evident

More information

By: J Malherbe, R Kuschke

By: J Malherbe, R Kuschke 2015-10-27 By: J Malherbe, R Kuschke Contents Summary...2 Overview of expected conditions over South Africa during the next few days...3 Significant weather events (27 October 2 November)...3 Conditions

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics

More information

South & South East Asian Region:

South & South East Asian Region: Issued: 10 th November 2017 Valid Period: December 2017 May 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016 Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 5, 2016 The month of July saw the continued flip, flop of the western US temperatures. It was warm

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016 Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University November 5, 2016 After a year where we were seemingly off by a month in terms of temperatures (March

More information

NEW ZEALAND WEATHER. BRIEF REVIEW OF THE WEATHER WINTER 1988 (Fig. 1)

NEW ZEALAND WEATHER. BRIEF REVIEW OF THE WEATHER WINTER 1988 (Fig. 1) Weather and Climate (1989) 9: 29-36 29 NEW ZEALAND WEATHER BRIEF REVIEW OF THE WEATHER WINTER 1988 (Fig. 1) Rainfall for winter was above normal in central highcountry regions of the North Island, Wanganui,

More information

2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care

2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care 2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days

More information

MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CLIMATE NOVEMBER 2018 Introduction Climatologically speaking, November is a relatively dry month for Mauritius with a long term monthly mean rainfall of 78 mm. However,

More information

Climate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements. Issued 1 October Roger C Stone

Climate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements. Issued 1 October Roger C Stone Climate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements Issued 1 October 2017 Roger C Stone University of Southern Queensland Document title 1 Overview A short La Nina-type pattern trying to develop

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE FOR MAY 2015

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE FOR MAY 2015 UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE FOR MAY 2015 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in April 2015 1.1 Inter-Monsoon conditions prevailed over the ASEAN region in April 2015. The gradual northward

More information

Weather Update. Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018

Weather Update. Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018 Weather Update Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018 Table of contents Current conditions Temperatures Precipitation El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecasts

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016 UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in November 2016 1.1 Inter monsoon conditions prevailed in the first half of November 2016. During this

More information

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (

More information

New Zealand Seasonal Fire Danger Outlook 2017/18

New Zealand Seasonal Fire Danger Outlook 2017/18 New Zealand Seasonal Fire Danger Outlook 2017/18 ISSUE: North Island, March 2018 Current fire danger situation & outlook: Looking back at February, it was a very unsettled month. The tropics directed New

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 2, 2019 Summary: Dramatic flip from a mild winter to a top five coldest February on record in many locations

More information

2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response

2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response 2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts

More information

MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CLIMATE SEPTEMBER 2018 Introduction Synoptic weather pattern over the region portrayed September as a transition month. The month started with wintry characteristics.

More information

ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency ENSO Outlook by JMA Hiroyuki Sugimoto El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Outline 1. ENSO impacts on the climate 2. Current Conditions 3. Prediction by JMA/MRI-CGCM 4. Summary

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018)

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018) UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for January 2018 1.1 The prevailing Northeast monsoon conditions over Southeast Asia strengthened in January

More information

The U. S. Winter Outlook

The U. S. Winter Outlook The 2018-2019 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline About the Seasonal Outlook Review of 2017-18 U. S.

More information

National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook

National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services Issued: September, 2007 Wildland Fire Outlook September through December 2007 Significant fire

More information

An upper to mid level circulation (Low) in the NW Caribbean is

An upper to mid level circulation (Low) in the NW Caribbean is WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK BELIZE, CENTRAL AMERICA PERIOD: Monday-Monday, Oct. 1 October 8, 2012 DATE ISSUED: Monday, Oct 1, 2012 6:00 am RFrutos EcoSolutions & Services SYNOPSIS: An upper to mid level circulation

More information

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016

Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start

More information

PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response

PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin

More information

INDIAN OCEAN STATE February 14, 2018 MJO INDEX

INDIAN OCEAN STATE February 14, 2018 MJO INDEX Digana Village,Sri Lanka/ Male,Maldives/ New York, USA Phone: (+94) 81-2376746 (SL), (+960) 77880(MV) Web: http://www.tropicalclimate.org/maldives Blog: http://fectmv.blogspot.com E-mail: fectmv@gmail.com

More information

North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: September 2008

North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: September 2008 North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Nicholas.Bond@noaa.gov Last updated: September 2008 Summary. The North Pacific atmosphere-ocean system from fall 2007

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: West Pacific Typhoons Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review

More information

Summer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast

Summer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact

More information

Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change. Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015

Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change. Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015 Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015 Outline Weather and Fire Risk Environmental conditions leading to

More information

Here s what a weak El Nino usually brings to the nation with temperatures:

Here s what a weak El Nino usually brings to the nation with temperatures: Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2018-2019. El Nino / La Nina: When looking

More information

Northwest Outlook September 2017

Northwest Outlook September 2017 Northwest Outlook September 2017 Hot and dry August August 2017 continued with the pattern established in June and July that featured a large, semipermanent ridge in the flow of the jet stream. Temperatures

More information

Midwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018

Midwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018 Midwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018 Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln School of Natural Resources September 20, 2018 General Information

More information

Climate Variability and El Niño

Climate Variability and El Niño Climate Variability and El Niño David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University UF IFAS Extenstion IST January 17, 2017 The El

More information

Seasonal Outlook through September 2007

Seasonal Outlook through September 2007 Seasonal Outlook through September 2007 Klaus Wolter (15may) University of Colorado, CIRES & NOAA-ESRL Climate Analysis Branch klaus.wolter@noaa.gov http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/swcasts/

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate

More information

Issued by the: Climate Services Division Fiji Meteorological Service Nadi Airport. 27 October 2010 GENERAL STATEMENT

Issued by the: Climate Services Division Fiji Meteorological Service Nadi Airport. 27 October 2010 GENERAL STATEMENT Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Tropical Cyclone Guidance for Season 2010/11 for the Fiji and the Southwest Pacific RSMC Region 160E to 120W Equator to 25 South Issued by the: Climate Services Division

More information