ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

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1 ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

2 Today Feature of the month: West Pacific Typhoons Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review CPC Forecasts and observations for most recent month and season Current Atmosphere and Ice Climate Drivers: SSTs, PDO, ENSO Climate Forecast Guidance ENSO Statistical Dynamic--NMME CPC Outlooks November and November-January Winter

3 Recurving Western Pacific Typhoons Happen every year, Aug- Oct most commonly Impact Alaska Directly, as an extra-tropical storm (not uncommon) Indirectly, by changing the NH jet stream flow (unusual) Both directly and indirectly (rare but dramatic) Dramatic impacts: Hope Aug 1967 Oscar Sep 1995 Nuri Nov am AKDT Tuesday October 24, 2017 Ex-Super Typhoon Lan

4 Recurving West Pacific Typhoons Early Season Late Season August-September most common for direct impacts for Alaska From Archambault et. al. 2013

5 Jet Stream Influence of WPac Typhoons From Archambault et. al. 2013

6 Climate Forecast Basics Climate Prediction Center: primary NOAA/NWS forecast responsibility Climate Outlooks Relation to some long term normal (e.g ) Categorical (often three) Probabilistic Traditional Elements Temperature: centered around average Precipitation: centered around median (can significantly differ from the normal, which by convention is the mean) Chances of this box? Chances of this box? Chances of this box?

7 September 2017 Temperature Anomalies Mid-Month Outlook Non-EC Skill Score: +58 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

8 September 2017 Precipitation Anomalies Mid-Month Outlook Non-EC Skill Score: +06 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

9 Jul-Aug-Sep 2017 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +65 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

10 Jul-Aug-Sep 2017 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +10 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

11 Mid-October Sea Ice Comparison Oct 25, 2017 Oct 25, 2016

12 Arctic Wide Sea Ice Updated October 25, 2017

13 Arctic Sea Ice Volume & Thickness End of September Arctic sea ice volume in satellite era (since 1979): similar to 2016 No ice with above average thickness remains PIOMAS/U. Wa

14 Alaska Near-Shore SSTs

15 Global SST Anomalies Not much of a PDO Pattern Cool equatorial Pacific

16 Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly Heat Content Anomaly ( C) in the upper 300m Source: CPC

17 Pacific Decadal Oscillation

18 Tropical Pacific

19 Tropical Pacific SSTs and Winds OISSTv2 Weekly climo Low-level winds are close to normal in Niño 3.4 but enhanced trades west of dateline

20 Time Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly

21 Guidance ENSO Models Expert Evaluation Statistical Trends in the Past 15 Years Correlations SST Anomalies Oceanic Correlation (PDO) Dynamic SST Anomalies Global Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

22 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts October NMME Forecasts La Niña looks likely, but how long will it last?

23 CPC Niño 3.4 Experts Forecast ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch La Niña favored: but barely reaches five seasons threshold

24 Trends November Compared to =Below normal 34-66=Near normal =Above normal Temps Nov-Jan Precip

25 Constructed Analogs based on Global SSTs

26 PDO Correlation: NDJ observed vs. ASO PDO Temperature Precipitation

27 Dynamic Forecasts Extratropical SSTs Arctic Sea Ice Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

28 NMME Forecast Nov-Jan SST Anomalies Not much of a PDO pattern

29 NMME Skill for SST Skill of NDJ forecasts made in October

30 CPC Experimental Sea Ice: Freeze-Up Dates (20 members) Courtesy CPC/Wanqui Wang

31 November 2017 Temp Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep ( C) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

32 November 2017 Pcpn Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep (mm/day) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

33 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for November 2017 Forecast made in: August September October

34 Nov-Dec-Jan Temp Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep ( C) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

35 Nov-Dec-Jan 2017 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep (mm/day) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

36 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for Nov-Dec-Jan 2017 Forecast made in: August September October

37 NMME Skill for Nov & Nov-Dec-Jan Temp Pcpn

38 Nov-Dec-Jan Outlook from September

39 And the Answer Is

40 CPC November 2017 Outlook 45% 22% 65% 22% 03% 37% 30% 45% 22% Above% Normal% Below%

41 CPC Nov-Dec-Jan 2017 Outlook 45% 22% 55% 12% 37% 30% 45% 22% 37% 30% Above% Normal% Below%

42 Third Look: Winter % 37% 22% 30% 45% 22% 22% 45% 37% 30%

43 Climate Forecast Links CPC Monthly CPC Seasonal NMME ENSO at CPC (including weekly briefing) enso.shtml ENSO at IRI

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