ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

Save this PDF as:
Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region"

Transcription

1 ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

2 Today Feature of the month: West Pacific Typhoons Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review CPC Forecasts and observations for most recent month and season Current Atmosphere and Ice Climate Drivers: SSTs, PDO, ENSO Climate Forecast Guidance ENSO Statistical Dynamic--NMME CPC Outlooks November and November-January Winter

3 Recurving Western Pacific Typhoons Happen every year, Aug- Oct most commonly Impact Alaska Directly, as an extra-tropical storm (not uncommon) Indirectly, by changing the NH jet stream flow (unusual) Both directly and indirectly (rare but dramatic) Dramatic impacts: Hope Aug 1967 Oscar Sep 1995 Nuri Nov am AKDT Tuesday October 24, 2017 Ex-Super Typhoon Lan

4 Recurving West Pacific Typhoons Early Season Late Season August-September most common for direct impacts for Alaska From Archambault et. al. 2013

5 Jet Stream Influence of WPac Typhoons From Archambault et. al. 2013

6 Climate Forecast Basics Climate Prediction Center: primary NOAA/NWS forecast responsibility Climate Outlooks Relation to some long term normal (e.g ) Categorical (often three) Probabilistic Traditional Elements Temperature: centered around average Precipitation: centered around median (can significantly differ from the normal, which by convention is the mean) Chances of this box? Chances of this box? Chances of this box?

7 September 2017 Temperature Anomalies Mid-Month Outlook Non-EC Skill Score: +58 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

8 September 2017 Precipitation Anomalies Mid-Month Outlook Non-EC Skill Score: +06 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

9 Jul-Aug-Sep 2017 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +65 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

10 Jul-Aug-Sep 2017 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +10 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

11 Mid-October Sea Ice Comparison Oct 25, 2017 Oct 25, 2016

12 Arctic Wide Sea Ice Updated October 25, 2017

13 Arctic Sea Ice Volume & Thickness End of September Arctic sea ice volume in satellite era (since 1979): similar to 2016 No ice with above average thickness remains PIOMAS/U. Wa

14 Alaska Near-Shore SSTs

15 Global SST Anomalies Not much of a PDO Pattern Cool equatorial Pacific

16 Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly Heat Content Anomaly ( C) in the upper 300m Source: CPC

17 Pacific Decadal Oscillation

18 Tropical Pacific

19 Tropical Pacific SSTs and Winds OISSTv2 Weekly climo Low-level winds are close to normal in Niño 3.4 but enhanced trades west of dateline

20 Time Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly

21 Guidance ENSO Models Expert Evaluation Statistical Trends in the Past 15 Years Correlations SST Anomalies Oceanic Correlation (PDO) Dynamic SST Anomalies Global Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

22 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts October NMME Forecasts La Niña looks likely, but how long will it last?

23 CPC Niño 3.4 Experts Forecast ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch La Niña favored: but barely reaches five seasons threshold

24 Trends November Compared to =Below normal 34-66=Near normal =Above normal Temps Nov-Jan Precip

25 Constructed Analogs based on Global SSTs

26 PDO Correlation: NDJ observed vs. ASO PDO Temperature Precipitation

27 Dynamic Forecasts Extratropical SSTs Arctic Sea Ice Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

28 NMME Forecast Nov-Jan SST Anomalies Not much of a PDO pattern

29 NMME Skill for SST Skill of NDJ forecasts made in October

30 CPC Experimental Sea Ice: Freeze-Up Dates (20 members) Courtesy CPC/Wanqui Wang

31 November 2017 Temp Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep ( C) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

32 November 2017 Pcpn Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep (mm/day) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

33 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for November 2017 Forecast made in: August September October

34 Nov-Dec-Jan Temp Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep ( C) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

35 Nov-Dec-Jan 2017 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep (mm/day) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

36 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for Nov-Dec-Jan 2017 Forecast made in: August September October

37 NMME Skill for Nov & Nov-Dec-Jan Temp Pcpn

38 Nov-Dec-Jan Outlook from September

39 And the Answer Is

40 CPC November 2017 Outlook 45% 22% 65% 22% 03% 37% 30% 45% 22% Above% Normal% Below%

41 CPC Nov-Dec-Jan 2017 Outlook 45% 22% 55% 12% 37% 30% 45% 22% 37% 30% Above% Normal% Below%

42 Third Look: Winter % 37% 22% 30% 45% 22% 22% 45% 37% 30%

43 Climate Forecast Links CPC Monthly CPC Seasonal NMME ENSO at CPC (including weekly briefing) enso.shtml ENSO at IRI

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: More climate models! Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: 2018 Wildfire Season Update Climate Forecast Basics Climate

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Ocean Warmth Headed into Summer Climate Forecast Basics Climate

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services Today Climate Forecast Basics Review of recent climate forecasts and conditions CPC Forecasts and observations

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. December 15, 2014 Rick Thoman NWS Alaska Region ESSD Climate Services

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. December 15, 2014 Rick Thoman NWS Alaska Region ESSD Climate Services ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING December 15, 2014 Rick Thoman NWS Alaska Region ESSD Climate Services Today Climate Forecast Basics Review of recent climate forecasts and conditions CPC Forecasts

More information

The U. S. Winter Outlook

The U. S. Winter Outlook The 2018-2019 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline About the Seasonal Outlook Review of 2017-18 U. S.

More information

The U. S. Winter Outlook

The U. S. Winter Outlook The 2017-2018 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline About the Seasonal Outlook Review of 2016-17 U. S.

More information

Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA s Climate Prediction Center Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Operations Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction Acknowlegement: Mathew Rosencrans, Arun

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño

More information

The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview

The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview Jae-Kyung Schemm Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP 1 Overview outline 1. Current status for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific basins

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through

More information

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015 ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019

Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an

More information

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017 ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

More information

Analysis of Fall Transition Season (Sept-Early Dec) Why has the weather been so violent?

Analysis of Fall Transition Season (Sept-Early Dec) Why has the weather been so violent? WEATHER TOPICS Analysis of Fall Transition Season (Sept-Early Dec) 2009 Why has the weather been so violent? As can be seen by the following forecast map, the Fall Transition and early Winter Season of

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 11 October 2018 ENSO Alert System

More information

El Niño Update Impacts on Florida

El Niño Update Impacts on Florida Current Issues in Emergency Management (CIEM) Sessions 1 &2 October 12 th and 26 th, 2006 Florida Division of Emergency Management Tallahassee, Florida El Niño Update Impacts on Florida Bart Hagemeyer

More information

ENSO and U.S. severe convective storm activity

ENSO and U.S. severe convective storm activity ENSO and U.S. severe convective storm activity Michael K. Tippett Columbia University Willis Research Network Autumn meeting Nov 1, 2017 Summary What is ENSO? Unusual warming or cooling of tropical Pacific

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

David G. DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA/NWS

David G. DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA/NWS CPC Current Capabilities and Metrics (Part I) and Key Science Challenges to Improving S2S Forecast Skill (Part II) David G. DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA/NWS 1 Outline Disclaimer

More information

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 9 August 2018 ENSO Alert System Status:

More information

Percentage of normal rainfall for August 2017 Departure from average air temperature for August 2017

Percentage of normal rainfall for August 2017 Departure from average air temperature for August 2017 New Zealand Climate Update No 219, August 2017 Current climate August 2017 Overall, mean sea level pressure was lower than normal over and to the west of New Zealand during August while higher than normal

More information

Winter Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR

Winter Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR Winter 07-08 Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR Overview Winter Weather Outlook How to stay informed Winter Outlook LaNina conditions are present across the tropical

More information

U.S. Outlook For October and Winter Thursday, September 19, 2013

U.S. Outlook For October and Winter Thursday, September 19, 2013 About This report coincides with today s release of the monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). U.S. CPC October and Winter Outlook The CPC

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño

More information

Colorado weather and climate update: a bit more than halfway through the water year (Or: What s going on with the weather?? )

Colorado weather and climate update: a bit more than halfway through the water year (Or: What s going on with the weather?? ) Colorado weather and climate update: a bit more than halfway through the water year (Or: What s going on with the weather?? ) Russ S. Schumacher Colorado State Climatologist Director, Colorado Climate

More information

ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency ENSO Outlook by JMA Hiroyuki Sugimoto El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Outline 1. ENSO impacts on the climate 2. Current Conditions 3. Prediction by JMA/MRI-CGCM 4. Summary

More information

South & South East Asian Region:

South & South East Asian Region: Issued: 15 th December 2017 Valid Period: January June 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, 2017 1. Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first

More information

Climate Variability. Eric Salathé. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Thanks to Nathan Mantua

Climate Variability. Eric Salathé. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Thanks to Nathan Mantua Climate Variability Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Thanks to Nathan Mantua Northwest Climate: the mean Factors that influence local/regional

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016 UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in November 2016 1.1 Southwest Monsoon conditions prevailed on most days in October 2016 and the winds were

More information

2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response

2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response 2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

Here s what a weak El Nino usually brings to the nation with temperatures:

Here s what a weak El Nino usually brings to the nation with temperatures: Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2018-2019. El Nino / La Nina: When looking

More information

Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Last Week s Rainfall

Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Last Week s Rainfall Last Week s Rainfall 1 Last Week s Surface Charts 2 Last month s Max Temp Forecasts: ACCESS Model Da te Model MxD1 MxD2 MxD3 MxD4 MxD5 MxD6 MxD7 MxD8 MxD9 MxD10 0 1- Aug- 18 ACC 15.4 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016

Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start

More information

South & South East Asian Region:

South & South East Asian Region: Issued: 10 th November 2017 Valid Period: December 2017 May 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System

More information

Winter Forecast. Allan Huffman RaleighWx

Winter Forecast. Allan Huffman RaleighWx Winter 2015-16 Forecast Allan Huffman RaleighWx Disclaimer Seasonal forecasting is difficult and you are always learning. I attempt to look at all factors I understand and have seen correlate in the past

More information

MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL

MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).

More information

Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs

Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs 1 Outline Operational Prediction Branch research needs Operational Monitoring Branch research needs New experimental products at CPC Background on CPC

More information

WINTER FORECAST NY Metro

WINTER FORECAST NY Metro 2015-2016 WINTER FORECAST NY Metro Weather @NY_WX DISCLAIMER: Seasonal forecasting is difficult and this is my first attempt at a Winter Forecast. I ve looked at all factors and put them together to create

More information

Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013)

Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013) Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013) Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department

More information

NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Dr. Gerry Bell Lead Seasonal Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS Collaboration With National Hurricane Center/ NOAA/ NWS Hurricane Research

More information

Challenges to Improving the Skill of Weekly to Seasonal Climate Predictions. David DeWitt with contributions from CPC staff

Challenges to Improving the Skill of Weekly to Seasonal Climate Predictions. David DeWitt with contributions from CPC staff Challenges to Improving the Skill of Weekly to Seasonal Climate Predictions David DeWitt with contributions from CPC staff 1 Outline CPC Background Prediction, monitoring, diagnostics, and climate services

More information

US Drought Status. Droughts 1/17/2013. Percent land area affected by Drought across US ( ) Dev Niyogi Associate Professor Dept of Agronomy

US Drought Status. Droughts 1/17/2013. Percent land area affected by Drought across US ( ) Dev Niyogi Associate Professor Dept of Agronomy Droughts US Drought Status Dev Niyogi Associate Professor Dept of Agronomy Deptof Earth Atmospheric Planetary Sciences Indiana State Climatologist Purdue University LANDSURFACE.ORG iclimate.org climate@purdue.edu

More information

Weather Update. Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018

Weather Update. Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018 Weather Update Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018 Table of contents Current conditions Temperatures Precipitation El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecasts

More information

GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office

GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere

More information

Sierra Weather and Climate Update

Sierra Weather and Climate Update Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of

More information

ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM

ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM El Nino is still hanging on but likely not for very long. Warmer than normal water can still be seen along the equator in the tropical Pacific. It is even warmer in the

More information

Winter Forecast. Allan Huffman RaleighWx

Winter Forecast. Allan Huffman RaleighWx Winter 2014-15 Forecast Allan Huffman RaleighWx Winter 2014-15 Combination of weak/moderate El Nino/+PDO/-QBO and well above average snow cover and snow cover increase this Fall in Siberia point to a winter

More information

Interpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System

Interpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System Interpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System Hiroshi OHNO Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)/ Climate Prediction Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Procedure of Seasonal Forecast (1) 1.

More information

Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting

Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal Forecast Products 18 21 January 2011 Tokyo, Japan Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Shotaro Tanaka Climate

More information

PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response

PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin

More information

New Zealand Climate Update No 221, October 2017 Current climate October 2017

New Zealand Climate Update No 221, October 2017 Current climate October 2017 New Zealand Climate Update No 221, October 2017 Current climate October 2017 October 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas. This consistent

More information

Expansion of Climate Prediction Center Products

Expansion of Climate Prediction Center Products Expansion of Climate Prediction Center Products Wanqiu Wang (CPC) Stephen Baxter (CPC) Rick Thoman (NWS) VAWS webinar, January 17, 2017 CPC Sea Ice Predictions Wanqiu Wang Thomas Collow Yanyun Liu Arun

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 4, 2017 July largely held true to forecast, although it ended with the start of one of the most extreme

More information

Climate Variability and El Niño

Climate Variability and El Niño Climate Variability and El Niño David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University UF IFAS Extenstion IST January 17, 2017 The El

More information

Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 2012 Outline Mission Extended Range Outlooks (6-10/8-14)

More information

Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio

Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Outline A Look Back At 2014 Spring 2015 So Far El Niño Update Climate Prediction

More information

2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care

2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care 2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days

More information

Trends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest

Trends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest Trends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest Don Wuebbles Zachary Zobel Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois, Urbana November 11, 2015 Date Name of Meeting 1 Arctic

More information

I C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017

I C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017 Bulletin Issue October 2017 I C P A C IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017 1. INTRODUCTION This bulletin reviews the September 2017

More information

North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: September 2008

North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: September 2008 North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Nicholas.Bond@noaa.gov Last updated: September 2008 Summary. The North Pacific atmosphere-ocean system from fall 2007

More information

YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer

YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer Mike Crimmins Assoc. Professor/Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science The University of Arizona Yes, another climate tool for

More information

Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO ):

Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO ): Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2015-2016. El Nino / La Nina: When looking

More information

Stefan Liess University of Minnesota Saurabh Agrawal, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Vipin Kumar University of Minnesota

Stefan Liess University of Minnesota Saurabh Agrawal, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Vipin Kumar University of Minnesota Introducing and Finding Tripoles: A Connection Between Central Asia and the Tropical Pacific Stefan Liess University of Minnesota liess@umn.edu Saurabh Agrawal, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Vipin Kumar University

More information

Contemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting. David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center

Contemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting. David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center Contemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center 1 Outline Commercial: NOAA Administrator s Award for Decisions Support Services Associated with

More information

New Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017

New Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017 New Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017 December 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas. This pressure

More information

Drought in Southeast Colorado

Drought in Southeast Colorado Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1 Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism

More information

Impacts of Climate on the Corn Belt

Impacts of Climate on the Corn Belt Impacts of Climate on the Corn Belt Great Lakes Crop Summit 2015 2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Recent polar volcano eruptions created a cool

More information

1. Introduction. 2. Verification of the 2010 forecasts. Research Brief 2011/ February 2011

1. Introduction. 2. Verification of the 2010 forecasts. Research Brief 2011/ February 2011 Research Brief 2011/01 Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific and Number of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in South China and the Korea and Japan region

More information

How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Teleconnections How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Teleconnections Connectedness of large-scale weather patterns across the world If you poke

More information

Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The Rate of Change

Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The Rate of Change Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The 1980-2013 Rate of Change Odalys Martínez-Sánchez Lead Forecaster and Climate Team Leader WFO San Juan UPRRP Environmental Sciences PhD Student Introduction Ways

More information

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016 BUSAN, 24 July 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for August 2015 January 2016 (ASONDJ) at the APEC Climate

More information

Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences University Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign snodgrss@illinois.edu

More information

1. INTRODUCTION 2. HIGHLIGHTS

1. INTRODUCTION 2. HIGHLIGHTS Bulletin Issue January 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/03/44 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Seasonal Bulletin, Review for October to December (OND) Season 2016 For referencing within this bulletin,

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University December 5, 2016 Well after an October that felt more like November, we just finished a November that

More information

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017 BUSAN, 26 June 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for July December 2017 (JASOND) at the APEC Climate Center

More information

August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012

August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012 August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012 Issued: 6 th August 2012 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK

More information

Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center

Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting for Africa Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center NOAA Forecast Con/nuum e.g. Disaster management planning and response e.g. Crop Selec6on, Water management

More information

Winter Forecast for GPC Tokyo. Shotaro TANAKA Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Winter Forecast for GPC Tokyo. Shotaro TANAKA Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Winter Forecast for 2013 2014 GPC Tokyo Shotaro TANAKA Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) NEACOF 5, October 29 November 1, 2013 1 Outline 1. Numerical prediction 2. Interannual

More information

Climate outlook, longer term assessment and regional implications. What s Ahead for Agriculture: How to Keep One of Our Key Industries Sustainable

Climate outlook, longer term assessment and regional implications. What s Ahead for Agriculture: How to Keep One of Our Key Industries Sustainable Climate outlook, longer term assessment and regional implications What s Ahead for Agriculture: How to Keep One of Our Key Industries Sustainable Bureau of Meteorology presented by Dr Jeff Sabburg Business

More information

Variability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean

Variability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean Variability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean Ming Feng, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research Arne Biastoch, Claus Böning, Leibniz-Institut für Meeresforschung Nick Caputi, Department

More information

Chart Discussion: Fri-09-Nov-2018 (Harvey Stern) Chart Discussion Latest Chart & SAT PIC

Chart Discussion: Fri-09-Nov-2018 (Harvey Stern) Chart Discussion Latest Chart & SAT PIC Chart Discussion Latest Chart & SAT PIC 1 Last Week s Rainfall 2 Past Week s Surface Charts 3 Last Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-08-Nov-2018 OBSERVED Chart Discussion: Fri-09-Nov-2018 (Harvey

More information

Dynamical Statistical Seasonal Prediction of Atlantic Hurricane Activity at NCEP

Dynamical Statistical Seasonal Prediction of Atlantic Hurricane Activity at NCEP Dynamical Statistical Seasonal Prediction of Atlantic Hurricane Activity at NCEP Hui Wang, Arun Kumar, Jae Kyung E. Schemm, and Lindsey Long NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Fifth Session of North

More information

2016 Hurricane Season Preview

2016 Hurricane Season Preview 2016 Hurricane Season Preview Eric Uhlhorn, Ph.D. 1 2 Recap of 2015 Hurricane Season - El Niño played a significant role in activity - Atlantic activity was slightly below normal 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes,

More information

Presentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?

Presentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate? Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation

More information

Assessment of the Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on Rainfall Amount in South-Western Nigeria

Assessment of the Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on Rainfall Amount in South-Western Nigeria 2016 Pearl Research Journals Journal of Physical Science and Environmental Studies Vol. 2 (2), pp. 23-29, August, 2016 ISSN 2467-8775 Full Length Research Paper http://pearlresearchjournals.org/journals/jpses/index.html

More information

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (

More information

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (

More information

Climate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements. Issued 1 October Roger C Stone

Climate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements. Issued 1 October Roger C Stone Climate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements Issued 1 October 2017 Roger C Stone University of Southern Queensland Document title 1 Overview A short La Nina-type pattern trying to develop

More information