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1 Issued: 10 th November 2017 Valid Period: December 2017 May 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1

2 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere winter (summer) During October, weak La Niña conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Convection was suppressed near the International Date Line and slightly enhanced over parts of the Maritime Continent and the Philippines. Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level trade winds were mainly near average, but the upper-level winds were strongly anomalously westerly and the Southern Oscillation Index was positive. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects the onset of La Niña conditions. Figure 1a: ENSO Probabilities. (Courtesy: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society). Figure 1a shows that there is a now a 73% chance of La Niña conditions occurring during the December-January-February season, and a 26% chance that neutral conditions will occur. There remains a 56 chance of neutral conditions persisting during the March-April- May season, while the chances of La Niña conditions remaining, have dropped to 35%. For the remainder of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere fall and winter (summer) , a weak La Niña is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April In summary, La Niña 2

3 conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere winter (summer). Local Effects of El Niño. Figures 1b and 1c show the global effects of El Niño (ENSO warm episode). In general, during El Niño events, conditions become warmer and drier over much of Indonesia. Statistical research shows that the strongest connections between El Niño and all of Indonesia occur during the August-September-October period, with much below average rainfall occurring. However, the effects are still strong over much of Indonesia from the May-June-July period waning during the February-March-April period. With the weakening of the current La Niña underway, the greatest effects have already occurred during the September-October-November period this year. At this stage, there is now less than a 1% chance that that El Niño conditions will return later this year. Figure 1b: Global effects of El Nino (ENSO warm episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC). 3

4 Figure 1c: Global effects of El Nino (ENSO warm episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC). Local Effects of La Niña. Figures 2b and 2c show the global effects of La Niña (ENSO cold episode). In general, during La Niña events, conditions become cooler and wetter over much of Indonesia. Statistical research shows that the strongest connections between La Niña and all of Indonesia occur during the August-September-October period, with much above average rainfall occurring. However, the effects are still strong over much of Indonesia from the May-June-July period waning during the February-March-April period. With ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevailing, any affects from La Niña during the September-October-November period will be minimal. At this stage, there is now about a 73% chance that that La Niña conditions will occur during the December-February period. 4

5 Figure 2b: Global effects of La Niña (ENSO cold episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC). Figure 2c: Global effects of La Niña (ENSO cold episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC). 5

6 Note: El Niño or La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months. El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue. The Climate Prediction Center defines "El Niño conditions" as existing when: A onemonth positive sea surface temperature anomaly of 0.5 C or greater is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5 N-5 S, 120 W-170 W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met AND An atmospheric response typically associated with El Niño is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Climate Prediction Center defines "La Niña conditions" as existing when: A onemonth positive sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5 C or less is observed in the Niño- 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5 N-5 S, 120 W-170 W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met AND an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 6

7 2] Rainfall Figure 2 shows actual rainfall and rainfall departures for the period 30/10/17-05/11/17 Generally moderate falls occurred over the southern Central and West Java and most of the southern South Sulawesi growing region with falls of between 25mm and 100m, however, very light falls occurred over the remaining regions, especially far Eastern East Java and Central and North Sulawesi (1mm to 25mm). Figure 2: (Left) Rainfall for the period 30/10/17-05/11/17 & (right) % of WMO normal. 7

8 3] Temperature Figure 3 shows the mean temperature and departures from normal for the period 30/10/17-05/11/17. Almost all growing regions recorded above average temperatures of +1 C to +3 C, while parts of East Java and South Sulawesi observed above average temperatures of up to +5 C. The far western parts of West Java recorded mostly average temperatures. Figure 3: (Left) Mean Temperature for the period 30/10/17-05/11/17 and (right) departure from WMO normal. 8

9 4] Soil Moisture Figure 4 shows the soil moisture percentage for the period 30/10/17-05/11/17. Soil moistures values were highest over most of far West Java growing regions with values ranging between 70% and 90%. Lowest values were observed over parts of the South Sulawesi and East Java, Bali, Sumbawa and Sumba growing region with values of between 0% and less than 20%. Values ranged from 20% to 50% over Central and North Sulawesi. Figure 4: WMO Percent Soil Moisture for the period 30/10/17-05/11/17. 9

10 B] Expected conditions: CENTRA JAVA: DECEMBER 2017: Rainfall is expected to be average to slightly above average over the Blora region (0mm to +50mm); below average over the Klaaten region (-50mm to - 100mm); below average over the Purwodadi region (-50mm to -100mm); average over the Rembang region (-50mm to +50mm) and above average over the Wonogiri region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). JANUARY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Blora region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Klaaten region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Purwodadi region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Rembang region (-100mm to -150mm) and average to slightly above average over the Wonogiri region (0mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). FEBRUARY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Blora region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Klaaten region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Purwodadi region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Rembang region (-100mm to -150mm) and average to slightly below average over the Wonogiri region (0mm to -50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). MARCH 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Blora region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Klaaten region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Purwodadi region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Rembang region (-100mm to -150mm) and below average over the Wonogiri region (-100mm to - 150mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). APRIL 2018: Rainfall is expected to be average to slightly below average over the Blora region (0mm to -50mm); average to slightly below average over the Klaaten region (0mm 1

11 to -50mm); below average over the Purwodadi region (-50mm to -100mm); average to slightly below average over the Rembang region (0mm to -50mm) and average over the Wonogiri region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and below average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). MAY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be average to slightly above average over the Blora region (0mm to +50mm); average over the Klaaten region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Purwodadi region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Rembang region (- 50mm to +50mm) and above average over the Wonogiri region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and below average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). EAST JAVA: DECEMBER 2017: Rainfall is expected to be average over the Banyuwangi region (-50mm to +50mm); below average over the Bondowoso region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Jember region (-200mm to -250mm); average over the Jombang region (-50mm to +50mm); above average over the Karangjati region (+100mm to +150mm); below average over the Lumajang region (-150mm to -200mm); average over the Madura region (-50mm to +50mm); below average over the Malang region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Paiton region (-100mm to -150mm); above average over the Ponorogo region (+100mm to +150mm) and above average over the Sugihwaras region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); above average over the Jember region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); average over the Jombang region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); below average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); below average over the Madura region (-1.0 C to -1.5 C); above average over the Malang region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). JANUARY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be average to slightly below average over the Banyuwangi region (0mm to -50mm); below average over the Bondowoso region (- 200mm to -250mm); below average over the Jember region (-250mm to -300mm); average to slightly below average over the Jombang region (0mm to -50mm); average to slightly above average over the Karangjati region (0mm to +50mm); below average over 1

12 the Lumajang region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Madura region (- 50mm to -100mm); below average over the Malang region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Paiton region (-150mm to -200mm); average to slightly above average over the Ponorogo region (0mm to +50mm) and average over the Sugihwaras region (- 50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); above average over the Jember region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); average over the Jombang region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); below average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); below average over the Madura region (-1.0 C to -1.5 C); above average over the Malang region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to C) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). FEBRUARY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Banyuwangi region (- 50mm to -100mm); below average over the Bondowoso region (-200mm to -250mm); below average over the Jember region (-200mm to -250mm); below average over the Jombang region (-50mm to -100mm); average to slightly below average over the Karangjati region (0mm to -50mm); below average over the Lumajang region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Madura region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Malang region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Paiton region (- 150mm to -200mm); average over the Ponorogo region (-50mm to +50mm) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-50mm to -100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); above average over the Jember region (+2.5 C to +3.0 C); average over the Jombang region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+2.5 C to +3.0 C); below average over the Madura region (-0.5 C to C); above average over the Malang region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). MARCH 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Banyuwangi region (- 50mm to -100mm); below average over the Bondowoso region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Jember region (-200mm to -250mm); below average over the Jombang region (-50mm to -100mm); average to slightly below average over the Karangjati region (0mm to -50mm); below average over the Lumajang region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Madura region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Malang region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Paiton region (- 150mm to -200mm); average over the Ponorogo region (-50mm to +50mm) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-50mm to -100mm). 1

13 Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); above average over the Jember region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); average over the Jombang region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); below average over the Madura region (-0.5 C to C); above average over the Malang region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). APRIL 2018: Rainfall is expected to be average over the Banyuwangi region (-50mm to +50mm); below average over the Bondowoso region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Jember region (-100mm to -150mm); average over the Jombang region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Karangjati region (-50mm to +50mm); below average over the Lumajang region (-50mm to -100mm); average over the Madura region (-50mm to +50mm); below average over the Malang region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Paiton region (-50mm to -100mm); average over the Ponorogo region (-50mm to +50mm) and average over the Sugihwaras region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); above average over the Jember region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); average over the Jombang region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Madura region (-1.0 C to C); above average over the Malang region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); below average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to C) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). MAY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+50mm to +100mm); average over the Bondowoso region (-50mm to +50mm); average to slightly below average over the Jember region (0mm to -50mm); average to slightly above average over the Jombang region (0mm to +50mm); above average over the Karangjati region (+50mm to +100mm); average to slightly below average over the Lumajang region (0mm to -50mm); above average over the Madura region (+50mm to +100mm); average over the Malang region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Paiton region (-50mm to +50mm); above average over the Ponorogo region (+50mm to +100mm) and above average over the Sugihwaras region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Jember region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Jombang region (- 0.5 C to -1.0 C); below average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Madura region (-2.0 C to -2.5 C); above average over the Malang region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Paiton region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); below average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). 1

14 RAINFALL FORECAST: JAVA, INDONESIA Figure 6A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall forecast (mm) for the months of Dec May 2018 (based on the forecast on 9th Nov 2017). 1

15 RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL: JAVA, INDONESIA Figure 6B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall departures (mm) for the months of Dec May 2018 (based on the forecast on 9th Nov 2017). Anomalies are computed with respect to the base period monthly means. 1

16 MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST: JAVA, INDONESIA Figure 10A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature forecast ( C) for the months of Dec May 2018 (based on the forecast on 9th Nov 2017). 1

17 MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE: JAVA, INDONESIA Figure 10B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature departures ( C) for the months of Dec May 2018 (based on the forecast on 9th Nov 2017). Anomalies are computed with respect to the base period monthly means. 1

18 LOMBOK: DECEMBER 2017: Below average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (-100mm to -150mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+1.5 C and +2.0 C). JANUARY 2018: Average to slightly below average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (0mm to -50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+1.5 C and +2.0 C). FEBRUARY 2018: Below average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (-100mm to -150mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+1.5 C and +2.0 C). MARCH 2018: Below average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (-50mm to - 100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+1.5 C and +2.0 C). APRIL 2018: Average to slightly above average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (0mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+1.0 C and +1.5 C). MAY 2018: Above average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (+150mm to +200mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+0.5 C and +1.0 C). SUMBAWA: DECEMBER 2017: Average to slightly below average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (0mm to -50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.5 C and +3.0 C). JANUARY 2018: Above average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (+50mm to +100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.0 C and +2.5 C). FEBRUARY 2018: Average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (-50mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.5 C and +3.0 C). MARCH 2018: Average to slightly below average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (0mm to -50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.5 C and +3.0 C). 1

19 APRIL 2018: Average to slightly above average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (0mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.5 C and +3.0 C). MAY 2018: Above average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (+100mm to +150mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.0 C and +2.5 C). 1

20 RAINFALL FORECAST: EASTERN INDONESIA Figure 8A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall forecast (mm) for the months of Dec May 2018 (based on the forecast on 9th Nov 2017). 2

21 RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL: EASTERN INDONESIA Figure 8B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall departures (mm) for the months of Dec May 2018 (based on the forecast on 9th Nov 2017). Anomalies are computed with respect to the base period monthly means. 2

22 MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST: EASTERN INDONESIA Figure 12A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature forecast ( C) for the months of Dec May 2018 (based on the forecast on 9th Nov 2017). 2

23 MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE: EASTERN INDONESIA Figure 12B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature departures ( C) for the months of Dec May 2018 (based on the forecast on 9th Nov 2017). Anomalies are computed with respect to the base period monthly means. 2

24 SUMMARY: DECEMBER 2017 MAY 2018 This month s forecast has changed very little from last month s forecast and remains somewhat warmer and dry. Most growing regions should see mostly average to below rainfall conditions throughout the entire period, with a few exceptions like Wonogiri, Karangjati, Ponogoro and Sugihwaras in December, when rainfall should be above average. In general, the growing regions of Java will become drier during from January onwards until May, when a recovery in the rainfall should be expected over almost all locations. Temperatures will generally be average over most of Central Java (except for above average temperatures over Purwodadi), while temperatures are expected to be mostly to below average over the northern locations in East Java and above average over the southern locations in East Java. Central Java: Mostly average to slightly above average rainfall should be expected over the Blora and the Wonogiri regions during December, elsewhere, mostly below average rainfall should be expected for the duration of the forecast period, with a recovery to more normal rainfall in May. Temperatures should be mostly average, except over Purwodadi, where it will be above average for the entire forest period, and slightly cooler than average over the Wonogiri region in April and May. East Java. Jember, Bondowoso, Lumajang, Malang and Paiton should expect below average rainfall for the entire forecast period, except for May when a recovery should be seen in the rainfall. The remaining growing regions should see mostly average to slightly below average to average rainfall. Karangjati, Ponogoro and Sugihwaras should expect mostly average to slightly above average rainfall during December and January. Most areas should expect below average rainfall from January onwards until at least April. The entire period should experience above average temperatures over the southern parts (+0.5 C to +2.5 C), while the northern parts should see below average temperatures (- 0.5 C to -2.5 C). Lombok: Below average rainfall is expected for the duration of most of the forecast period, but recovery to average rainfall should be expected in April and especially in May, with above average rainfall. Mostly average to above average temperatures of between +0.5 C and +2.0 C should be expected during the forecast period. Sumbawa: Average to slightly below average rainfall is expected in December and March, otherwise mostly average to slightly above average, especially in May. Above average temperatures of between +2.0 C and +3.0 C should be expected during the forecast period. 2

25 Figure 7 shows the expected monthly rainfall forecasts, climate averages and expected departures for the period November 2017 July (Blue is above average, red is below average). 2

26 2

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32 Appendix: Definitions and explanations: WMO Precipitation Decadal precipitation for each WMO station is calculated by adding the ten daily precipitation records and eliminating any station that reported eight days or less. Maps are then generated by Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation method. Daily ground station data is from the World Meteorological Organization s (WMO) Global Telecommunication System (GTS), which is a global network of more than 6000 stations. However, many of the 6000 stations do not report to the GTS daily, but approximately 3800 stations report each day. WMO Average Temperature Average daily air temperature is calculated for each WMO station by averaging the daily maximum and minimum air temperatures. The decadal average air temperature is then estimated by averaging the ten daily air temperatures for each WMO station. Any WMO station that reported eight days or less is eliminated and maps are then generated by Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation method. Daily ground station data is from the World Meteorological Organization s (WMO) Global Telecommunication System (GTS), which is a global network of more than 6000 stations. However, many of the 6000 stations do not report to the GTS daily, but approximately 3800 stations report each day. WMO Percent Soil Moisture Percent soil moisture is the available water for the plant divided by the total water holding capacity of the soil profile. It is useful for determining if the soil profile has enough water for crop development. Available water is calculated by the modified Palmer two-layer soil moisture model, which accounts for the daily amount of water withdrawn by evapotranspiration and replenished by precipitation. The total water holding capacity for each WMO station was derived from the FAO Digital Soil Map of the World and it is dependent on soil texture and depth of the soil profile. For WMO stations overlaying soils with soil depths greater than 1-meter, a maximum soil depth of 1-meter was assumed to approximate the maximum root depth for most plants. 3

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