Winter Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR

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1 Winter Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR

2 Overview Winter Weather Outlook How to stay informed

3 Winter Outlook LaNina conditions are present across the tropical Pacific basin. Model forecasts indicate a weak to moderate LaNina will continue well into Recent data and model forecasts indicate LaNina conditions will likely strengthen during the next several months.

4 Current Conditions Sea Surface Temperature Departures ( o C) Equatorial Pacific SSTs are -2ºC to -3ºC below average between 120ºW and the South American coast, and -0.5ºC to -1.0ºC below average near the Dateline. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (Oct 7 Nov 3)

5 Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures ( o C) DEC 2006 El Niño disappeared rapidly in January Time Negative SST anomalies now extend from the Date Line to the west coast of South America. Oct 2007 Longitude

6 Niño Region SST Departures ( o C) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are -1.6ºC in the Niño 3 region and -2.2ºC in the Niño 1+2 region. SST departures are -1.2ºC in the Niño 3.4 region and -0.5ºC in the Niño 4 region.

7 Tropical Circulation during LaNina

8 The Effects of La Niña La Niña episodes are associated with three prominent changes in the wintertime atmospheric flow across the eastern North Pacific and North America. An amplification of the climatological mean wave pattern and increased meridional flow across the continent and the eastern North Pacific. Increased blocking activity over the high latitudes of the eastern North Pacific. A highly variable strength of the jet stream over the eastern North Pacific, with the mean jet position entering North America in the northwestern United States/ southwestern Canada.

9 Global Effects of La Niña The effects of La Nina are most evident in each hemisphere s cold season when the jet stream is strongest. Some of the most reliable effects are suppressed rainfall and drought over the central Pacific, Peru, Ecuador, and the southern United States and enhanced rainfall in northwestern U.S., Indonesia, Australia, southern Africa, and northeastern Brazil. These effects, while looking to be the mirror image of those associated with El Niño, do have some slight differences.

10 Historical El Niño and La Niña episodes Warm Episodes max Cold Episodes min JAS NDJ 1951/ MAM 1957 MJJ JJA 1963 DJF 1963/ MJJ 1965 MAM OND 1968 AMJ ASO 1969 DJF 1969/ AMJ 1972 FMA ASO 1976 JFM ASO DJF 1977/ AMJ 1982 MJJ JAS 1986 JFM AMJ 1991 MJJ FMA 1993 JJA MAM 1994 FMA AMJ 1997 MAM ASO 1949 FMA MAM 1954 DJF 1956/ ASO 1961 MAM MAM 1964 JFM SON 1967 MAM JJA 1970 DJF 1971/ AMJ 1973 JJA ASO 1974 AMJ ASO 1983 DJF 1983/ SON 1984 MJJ AMJ 1988 AMJ ASO 1995 FMA JJA 1998 MJJ SON 2000 JFM AMJ 2002 FMA JJA 2004 JFM

11 Pacific NW LaNina Events ( ) Precipitation Temperature Percentage of: above normal normal below normal

12 U.S. Precipitation Departures for Oct-Dec and Dec-Feb Oct-Dec La Niña Dec-Feb Weak Moderate/ Strong All episodes

13 So, What s the Forecast?

14 Factors Influencing Forecast ENSO Trends (10 yr temp, 15 yr precip) NAO & PNA Tropical Day Oscillations (i.e. Madden Julian) Surface Conditions (snow, wet or dry soils, etc.) Statistical Forecast Tools Dynamic Forecast Models

15 Winter Outlook 2007/2008 Probability Forecasts -- how to use Above 33% Normal 33% Below 33% Example: 40 contour for above normal precipitation = 40% probability of above normal temperatures EC = equal chances of any 3 categories

16 Seasonal Outlook (December 07- February 08) Precipitation Temperature

17 Seasonal Outlook (March May 2008) Precipitation Temperature

18 Winter Forecast for Pacific NW La-Nina conditions lasting into 2008 Wetter than normal No clear signal on temperature departures (equal chances of below, normal, above normal temps) Precipitation Temperature (max) Temperature (min) Normal (PDX)

19 Staying Informed & Being Prepared NWS Weather Operations & Role OUTLOOK Weather patterns show potential for a weather event in the next 2 to 5 days WATCH Conditions are favorable for a severe weather event in the near future 12 hours up to 72 hours WARNING life or property threatening weather is occurring or imminent ADVISORY Weather effect is occurring or imminent that will cause significant inconvenience and if caution not taken may be life or property threatening

20 National Weather Service Product Stream READY SET GO Weather/Flood Outlook Weather/ Flood Watch Weather/ Flood Warning Time to onset of event (hours) Increasing confidence that event will occur

21 Weather on the Web NWS Front Page weather.gov/portland Your link to real-time weather

22 Something New from the NWS

23 Fully Localized Atmospheric Research Environment FLARE Desktop Weather Display System - Observational data - Zone forecasts - 5 different panels - Looping image panel -Warning display mode -Customizable -Great for EOCs, desktops, Kiosks, etc Available NOW! Contact Tyree for details Application Documentation

24 High-Impact Weather Briefings (GoToMeeting Technology) Interactive on-line briefings Demo d last winter season Ability for the briefer to display their PC desktop remotely to everyone else Operates best with high speed Internet And its Secure - End-to-end encryption, user authentication, one-time meeting passwords, secure control over desktop sharing

25 Any Questions?

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