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1 Issued: 15 th December 2017 Valid Period: January June 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1

2 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere winter (summer) , with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring (autumn). La Niña strengthened during the past month, as indicated by an increasingly prominent pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.8 C, with the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices at or below -1.0 C during much of the month (- 0.5 C to -1.0 C is considered to be a weak La Niña). The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean also reflected La Niña, with convection suppressed near the International Date Line and enhanced over Indonesia. The low-level trade winds were stronger than average over the western and central Pacific, with anomalous westerly winds at upper-levels. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects La Niña. Figure 1a: ENSO Probabilities. (Courtesy: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society). 2

3 Figure 1a shows that there is a now a 92% chance of La Niña conditions occurring during the December-January-February season, and an 8% chance that neutral conditions will occur. There remains a 48% chance of neutral conditions persisting during the March- April-May season, while the chances of La Niña conditions occurring have remained around 48%. La Niña is predicted to persist through the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere winter (summer) by nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume and in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. Based on the latest observations and forecast guidance, forecasters favor the peak of a weak-to-moderate La Niña during the winter (summer). In summary, La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere winter (summer) , with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring (autumn). Local Effects of El Niño. Figures 1b and 1c show the global effects of El Niño (ENSO warm episode). In general, during El Niño events, conditions become warmer and drier over much of Indonesia. Statistical research shows that the strongest connections between El Niño and all of Indonesia occur during the August-September-October period, with much below average rainfall occurring. However, the effects are still strong over much of Indonesia from the May-June-July period waning during the February-March-April period. With the weakening of the current La Niña underway, the greatest effects have already occurred during the September-October-November period this year. At this stage, there is now less than a 0% chance that that El Niño conditions will return this year. 3

4 Figure 1b: Global effects of El Nino (ENSO warm episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC). Figure 1c: Global effects of El Nino (ENSO warm episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC). Local Effects of La Niña. Figures 2b and 2c show the global effects of La Niña (ENSO cold episode). In general, during La Niña events, conditions become cooler and wetter over much of Indonesia. Statistical research shows that the strongest connections between La Niña and all of Indonesia occur during the August-September-October period, with much above average rainfall occurring. However, the effects are still strong over much of Indonesia from the May-June-July period waning during the February-March-April period. With ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevailing, any affects from La Niña during the September-October-November period will be minimal. At this stage, there is now about a 92% chance that that La Niña conditions will occur during the December-February period. 4

5 Figure 2b: Global effects of La Niña (ENSO cold episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC). Figure 2c: Global effects of La Niña (ENSO cold episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC). 5

6 Note: El Niño or La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months. El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue. The Climate Prediction Center defines "El Niño conditions" as existing when: A onemonth positive sea surface temperature anomaly of 0.5 C or greater is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5 N-5 S, 120 W-170 W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met AND An atmospheric response typically associated with El Niño is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Climate Prediction Center defines "La Niña conditions" as existing when: A onemonth positive sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5 C or less is observed in the Niño- 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5 N-5 S, 120 W-170 W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met AND an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 6

7 2] Rainfall Figure 2 shows actual rainfall and rainfall departures for the period 4/12/17-10/12/17 Generally moderate falls (35mm to 200mm) occurred over all regions except the Central Sulawesi region, where no to little rain occurred for this period. (0mm to 10mm). Figure 2: (Left) Rainfall for the period 4/12/17-10/12/17 & (right) % of WMO normal. 7

8 3] Temperature Figure 3 shows the mean temperature and departures from normal for the period 4/12/17-10/12/17. Almost all growing regions recorded above average temperatures of +1 C to +3 C, while parts of far eastern East Java observed above average temperatures of up to +5 C. The far western parts of West Java recorded mostly average temperatures. Figure 3: (Left) Mean Temperature for the period 4/12/17-10/12/17 and (right) departure from WMO normal. 8

9 4] Soil Moisture Figure 4 shows the soil moisture percentage for 3/12/17. Soil moistures values were highest over most of far West Java and Central Sulawesi growing regions with values ranging between 40% and 80%. Lowest values were observed over parts of the South Sulawesi and East Java, Bali, Sumbawa and Sumba growing region with values of between 0% and less than 20%. Figure 4: WMO Percent Soil Moisture for 3/12/17. 9

10 B] Expected conditions: CENTRA JAVA: JANUARY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Blora region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Klaaten region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Purwodadi region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Rembang region (-100mm to -150mm) and average to slightly above average over the Wonogiri region (0mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). FEBRUARY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Blora region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Klaaten region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Purwodadi region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Rembang region (-100mm to -150mm) and average to slightly below average over the Wonogiri region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). MARCH 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Blora region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Klaaten region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Purwodadi region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Rembang region (-100mm to -150mm) and average to slightly below average over the Wonogiri region (0mm to -50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). APRIL 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Blora region (-50mm to - 100mm); average to slightly below average over the Klaaten region (0mm to -50mm); below average over the Purwodadi region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Rembang region (-50mm to -100mm) and average over the Wonogiri region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and below average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). 10

11 MAY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be average over the Blora region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Klaaten region (-50mm to +50mm); average to slightly below average over the Purwodadi region (0mm to -50mm); average over the Rembang region (-50mm to +50mm) and above average over the Wonogiri region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and below average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). JUNE 2018: Rainfall is expected to be average over the Blora region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Klaaten region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Purwodadi region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Rembang region (-50mm to +50mm) and average over the Wonogiri region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Blora growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Klaaten growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Purwodadi growing region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); average over the Rembang growing region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and below average over the Wonogiri growing region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). EAST JAVA: JANUARY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be average over the Banyuwangi region (-50mm to +50mm); below average over the Bondowoso region (-200mm to -250mm); below average over the Jember region (-200mm to -250mm); average to slightly below average over the Jombang region (0mm to -50mm); average to slightly above average over the Karangjati region (0mm to +50mm); below average over the Lumajang region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Madura region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Malang region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Paiton region (- 150mm to -200mm); above average over the Ponorogo region (+50mm to +100mm) and average over the Sugihwaras region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); above average over the Jember region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); average over the Jombang region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); below average over the Madura region (-1.0 C to C); above average over the Malang region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to C) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). FEBRUARY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Banyuwangi region (- 50mm to -100mm); below average over the Bondowoso region (-200mm to -250mm); below average over the Jember region (-200mm to -250mm); below average over the Jombang region (-50mm to -100mm); average to slightly below average over the Karangjati region (0mm to -50mm); below average over the Lumajang region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Madura region (-100mm to -150mm); below average 11

12 over the Malang region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Paiton region (- 150mm to -200mm); average over the Ponorogo region (-50mm to +50mm) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-50mm to -100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); above average over the Jember region (+2.5 C to +3.0 C); average over the Jombang region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+2.5 C to +3.0 C); below average over the Madura region (-0.5 C to C); above average over the Malang region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). MARCH 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below average over the Banyuwangi region (- 50mm to -100mm); below average over the Bondowoso region (-200mm to -250mm); below average over the Jember region (-200mm to -250mm); below average over the Jombang region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Karangjati region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Lumajang region (-150mm to -200mm); below average over the Madura region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Malang region (-100mm to -150mm); below average over the Paiton region (-150mm to -200mm); average to slightly below average over the Ponorogo region (0mm to -50mm) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-100mm to -150mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); above average over the Jember region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); average over the Jombang region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+2.0 C to +2.5 C); below average over the Madura region (-0.5 C to C); above average over the Malang region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C) and average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C). APRIL 2018: Rainfall is expected to be average over the Banyuwangi region (-50mm to +50mm); below average over the Bondowoso region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Jember region (-100mm to -150mm); average to slightly below average over the Jombang region (0mm to -50mm); average over the Karangjati region (-50mm to +50mm); below average over the Lumajang region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Madura region (-50mm to -100mm); below average over the Malang region (-50mm to - 100mm); below average over the Paiton region (-50mm to -100mm); average over the Ponorogo region (-50mm to +50mm) and average to slightly below average over the Sugihwaras region (0mm to -50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); above average over the Jember region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); average over the Jombang region (-0.5 C to 12

13 +0.5 C); average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to +0.5 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Madura region (-1.0 C to C); above average over the Malang region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); below average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to C) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). MAY 2018: Rainfall is expected to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+50mm to +100mm); average over the Bondowoso region (-50mm to +50mm); average to slightly below average over the Jember region (0mm to -50mm); average to slightly above average over the Jombang region (0mm to +50mm); above average over the Karangjati region (+50mm to +100mm); average to slightly below average over the Lumajang region (0mm to -50mm); average to slightly above average over the Madura region (0mm to +50mm); average over the Malang region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Paiton region (-50mm to +50mm); above average over the Ponorogo region (+50mm to +100mm) and above average over the Sugihwaras region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Jember region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Jombang region (- 0.5 C to -1.0 C); below average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Madura region (-2.0 C to -2.5 C); above average over the Malang region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Paiton region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); below average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C). JUNE 2018: Rainfall is expected to be average over the Banyuwangi region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Bondowoso region (-50mm to +50mm); below average over the Jember region (-50mm to -100mm); average over the Jombang region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Karangjati region (-50mm to +50mm); average to slightly below average over the Lumajang region (0mm to -50mm); average over the Madura region (-50mm to +50mm); average to slightly below average over the Malang region (0mm to -50mm); average over the Paiton region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Ponorogo region (-50mm to +50mm) and average over the Sugihwaras region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Banyuwangi region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); above average over the Bondowoso region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); above average over the Jember region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Jombang region (- 0.5 C to -1.0 C); below average over the Karangjati region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C); above average over the Lumajang region (+1.5 C to +2.0 C); below average over the Madura region (-2.0 C to -2.5 C); above average over the Malang region (+0.5 C to +1.0 C); above average over the Paiton region (+1.0 C to +1.5 C); below average over the Ponorogo region (-0.5 C to -1.0 C) and below average over the Sugihwaras region (-1.0 C to -1.5 C). 13

14 RAINFALL FORECAST: JAVA, INDONESIA Figure 6A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall forecast (mm) for the months of Jan - Jun 2018 (based on the forecast on 14th Dec 2017). 14

15 RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL: JAVA, INDONESIA Figure 6B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall departures (mm) for the months of Jan - Jun 2018 (based on the forecast on 14th Dec 2017). Anomalies are computed with respect to the base period monthly means. 15

16 MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST: JAVA, INDONESIA Figure 10A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature forecast ( C) for the months of Jan - Jun 2018 (based on the forecast on 14 th Dec 2017). 16

17 MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE: JAVA, INDONESIA Figure 10B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature departures ( C) for the months of Jan - Jun 2018 (based on the forecast on 14 th Dec 2017). Anomalies are computed with respect to the base period monthly means. 17

18 LOMBOK: JANUARY 2018: Average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (-50mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+1.5 C and +2.0 C). FEBRUARY 2018: Below average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (-50mm to -100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+1.5 C and +2.0 C). MARCH 2018: Below average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (-100mm to - 150mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+1.5 C and +2.0 C). APRIL 2018: Average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (-50mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+1.0 C and +1.5 C). MAY 2018: Above average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (+100mm to +150mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+0.5 C and +1.0 C). JUNE 2018: Above average rainfall should occur over the Lombok region (+50mm to +100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Lombok region (+0.5 C and +1.0 C). SUMBAWA: JANUARY 2018: Above average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (+50mm to +100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.5 C and +3.0 C). FEBRUARY 2018: Average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (-50mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.5 C and +3.0 C). MARCH 2018: Below average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (-50mm to -100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.5 C and +3.0 C). APRIL 2018: Average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (-50mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.5 C and +3.0 C). MAY 2018: Above average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (+50mm to +100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.0 C and +2.5 C). 18

19 JUNE 2018: Average to slightly above average rainfall should occur over the Manggalewa region (0mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Manggalewa region (+2.0 C and +2.5 C). 19

20 RAINFALL FORECAST: EASTERN INDONESIA Figure 8A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall forecast (mm) for the months of Jan - Jun 2018 (based on the forecast on 14 th Dec 2017). 20

21 RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL: EASTERN INDONESIA Figure 8B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall departures (mm) for the months of Jan - Jun 2018 (based on the forecast on 14 th Dec 2017). Anomalies are computed with respect to the base period monthly means. 21

22 MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST: EASTERN INDONESIA Figure 12A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature forecast ( C) for the months of Jan - Jun 2018 (based on the forecast on 14 th Dec 2017). 22

23 MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE: EASTERN INDONESIA Figure 12B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature departures ( C) for the months of Jan - Jun 2018 (based on the forecast on 14 th Dec 2017). Anomalies are computed with respect to the base period monthly means. 23

24 SUMMARY: JANUARY JUNE 2018 There has been some moderation in the forecast rainfall deficits over many locations in the various growing regions in the latest forecast. Most growing regions should see mostly average to below rainfall conditions during the January-March period, with a few exceptions like Wonogiri, Karangjati and Ponogoro in January, when rainfall should be above average. In general, the growing regions of Java will become drier during from January onwards until April, when a recovery in the rainfall should be expected over almost all locations in May and near normal rainfall in June over almost all locations. Temperatures will generally be average over most of Central Java (except for above average temperatures over Purwodadi), while temperatures are expected to be mostly to below average over the northern locations in East Java and above average over the southern locations in East Java. Central Java: Mostly average to slightly above average rainfall should be expected over Wonogiri regions during January, elsewhere, mostly below average rainfall should be expected for much of the forecast until April, with a recovery to more normal rainfall in May and June. Temperatures should be mostly average, except over Purwodadi, where it will be above average for the entire forest period, and slightly cooler than average over the Wonogiri region in the April to June period. East Java. Jember and Lumajang should expect below average rainfall for the entire forecast period. The remaining growing regions should see mostly average to slightly below average to average rainfall. Karangjati and Ponogoro should expect mostly average to slightly above average rainfall during January. Most areas should expect average rainfall to above average rainfall from May onwards. The entire period should experience above average temperatures over the southern parts (+0.5 C to +2.5 C), while the northern parts should see below average temperatures (-0.5 C to -2.5 C). Lombok: Below average rainfall is expected in February and March, but recovery to average rainfall should be expected in April and especially in May and June, with above average rainfall. Mostly average to above average temperatures of between +0.5 C and +2.0 C should be expected during the forecast period. Sumbawa: Average to slightly below average rainfall is expected in March, otherwise mostly average to slightly above average, especially in May. Above average temperatures of between +2.0 C and +3.0 C should be expected during the forecast period. 24

25 Figure 7 shows the expected monthly rainfall forecasts, climate averages and expected departures for the period December 2017 August (Blue is above average, red is below average). 25

26 26

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29 29

30 30

31 Appendix: Definitions and explanations: WMO Precipitation Decadal precipitation for each WMO station is calculated by adding the ten daily precipitation records and eliminating any station that reported eight days or less. Maps are then generated by Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation method. Daily ground station data is from the World Meteorological Organization s (WMO) Global Telecommunication System (GTS), which is a global network of more than 6000 stations. However, many of the 6000 stations do not report to the GTS daily, but approximately 3800 stations report each day. WMO Average Temperature Average daily air temperature is calculated for each WMO station by averaging the daily maximum and minimum air temperatures. The decadal average air temperature is then estimated by averaging the ten daily air temperatures for each WMO station. Any WMO station that reported eight days or less is eliminated and maps are then generated by Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation method. Daily ground station data is from the World Meteorological Organization s (WMO) Global Telecommunication System (GTS), which is a global network of more than 6000 stations. However, many of the 6000 stations do not report to the GTS daily, but approximately 3800 stations report each day. WMO Percent Soil Moisture Percent soil moisture is the available water for the plant divided by the total water holding capacity of the soil profile. It is useful for determining if the soil profile has enough water for crop development. Available water is calculated by the modified Palmer two-layer soil moisture model, which accounts for the daily amount of water withdrawn by evapotranspiration and replenished by precipitation. The total water holding capacity for each WMO station was derived from the FAO Digital Soil Map of the World and it is dependent on soil texture and depth of the soil profile. For WMO stations overlaying soils with soil depths greater than 1-meter, a maximum soil depth of 1-meter was assumed to approximate the maximum root depth for most plants. 31

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