ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. December 15, 2014 Rick Thoman NWS Alaska Region ESSD Climate Services

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1 ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING December 15, 2014 Rick Thoman NWS Alaska Region ESSD Climate Services

2 Today Climate Forecast Basics Review of recent climate forecasts and conditions CPC Forecasts and observations for most recent month and season Current Atmosphere and Ice Climate Drivers: SSTs, PDO, ENSO Climate Forecast Guidance ENSO Statistical: Past relationships Dynamic--NMME Climate Prediction Center Last Month CPC Outlooks Next month Next season Requested Bonus: NMME

3 Climate Forecast Basics Climate Prediction Center: primary NOAA/NWS forecast responsibility Climate Forecasts Relation to some long term normal ( ) Categorical (often three) Probabilistic Traditional Elements Temperature: centered around the mean Precipitation: centered around median (can significantly differ from the normal, which by convention is the mean)

4 November 2014 Temperature Sig Above Near Normal Sig Below Preliminary data subject to revision

5 November 2014 Precipitation Sig Above Near Normal Sig Below Preliminary data subject to revision

6 Sep-Oct-Nov 2014 Precipitation Sig Above Near Normal Sig Below

7 Sep-Oct-Nov 2014 Temps Sig Above Near Normal Sig Below

8 Point Based Anomalies Alaska Seasonal and Subseasonal Anomalies Season: September-November 2014 Temperature Precipitation ( Percentile Rank) Note: 0%=drier and 100%=wetter than any in (Standardized Anomaly) period September October November SON September October November SON Barrow % 98% 97% 97% Bettles % 7% 14% 3% Fairbanks % 17% 16% 89% Northway % 31% 20% 80% Nome % 10% 71% 31% Bethel % 71% 59% 35% Saint Paul % 9% 30% 26% King Salmon % 2% 84% 42% Cold Bay % 2% 57% 36% McGrath % 0% 30% 2% Denali NP % 23% 0% 38% Gulkana % 97% 6% 78% Anchorage % 26% 28% 41% Kodiak % 37% 93% 77% Yakutat % 19% 21% 30% Juneau % 39% 30% 36% Annette % 52% 30% 45% Color fill closely corresponds to CPC terciles values (Temps ± 0.43 SD, Precip 33% & 66% percentiles from )

9 Mid November Sea Ice Comparison 14 Dec Dec vs. 2013: Not much difference

10 Alaska Near-Shore SSTs

11 Global SST Anomalies Positive PDO Pattern

12 PDO: The Long View

13 Tropical Pacific SSTs and Winds

14 Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly

15 Guidance ENSO Models Expert Evaluation Statistical Trends in the Past 10/15 Years SST Anomalies Oceanic Correlation Dynamic SST Anomalies Global Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

16 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts Plumes: Niño ºC this fall persisting into early spring

17 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecast El Niño Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next six months.

18 January Temperature and Precipitation Trends Temps 10 years Pcpn 15 years Sig Above Temp Sig Below Temp Sig Above Pcpn Sig Below Pcpn

19 Jan-Feb-Mar Optimum Climate Normals Temps 10 years Pcpn 15 years Sig Above Temp Sig Below Temp Sig Above Pcpn Sig Below Pcpn

20 ENSO Composites for JFM ( ) Juneau Anchorage Fairbanks

21 ENSO Correlations for JFM ( ) Niño 3.4 MEI

22 PDO: Then and now during JFM Temps Precip

23 Dynamic Forecasts Extratropical SSTs Arctic Sea Ice Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

24 NMME Forecast SST Anomalies Moderately positive PDO pattern

25 CFS Sea Ice Forecast January Mean Anomaly January Mean Coverage

26 January 2015 Temp Anomaly Forecasts

27 January 2015 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts

28 Probability Forecasts for January 2015 Fcst from October Fcst from November Fcst from December

29 Jan-Feb-Mar 2015 Temp Anomaly Forecasts

30 Jan-Feb-Mar 2015 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts

31 Probability Forecasts for Jan-Feb-Mar 2015 Fcst from October Fcst from November Fcst from December

32 NMME Skill for January and JFM Temp Pcpn

33 CPC November Forecast for Jan-Feb-Mar

34 And the Answer Is

35 CPC January 2015 Outlook 37% 33% 30% 33% 34% 33% 55% 33% 12% 37% 33% 30% 45% 33% 22% Above% Normal% Below%

36 CPC Jan-Feb-Mar 2015 Outlook 45% 33% 22% 37% 33% 30% 33% 34% 33% Above% Normal% Below% 65% 27% 08% 55% 33% 12% 45% 33% 22% 37% 33% 30% 45% 33% 22% 30% 33% 37%

37 Climate Forecast Links CPC Monthly CPC Seasonal NMME ENSO at CPC (including weekly briefing) enso.shtml ENSO at IRI

38 NOAA s GFDL Climate Models GFDL CM 2.1 Atmosphere 2 x 2.5 Vertical 24, Ocean 0.3 Eq, Vrt members into NMME Reference: Thomas Delworth et. al., 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics. J. Climate, 19: doi: GFDL FLOR Atmosphere 50km Vertical 32, Ocean 0.3 Eq, Vrt members into the NMME Reference: Liwei Jia, et. al., 2014: Improved Seasonal Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation over Land in a High-resolution GFDL Climate Model 2. J. Climate, EOR. doi:

39 GFDL CM2.1 Winter Spring Autumn Summer Temp Pcpn

40 GFDL FLOR Winter Spring Autumn Summer

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