Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society

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1 Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society Three-month Climate Outlook For November 2017 January 2018 Issued on 31 October Climate Outlook 1. During the next 3 months, the total rain of the Upper Thailand (northern, northeastern, central and eastern parts) is expected to be 10-20% below or about 37 mm (Normal: 46 mm), 24 mm (Normal: 27 mm), 41 mm (Normal: 51 mm) and 70 mm (Normal: 77 mm) consecutively. On the other hand, the total rain of the eastern side of the Southern Thailand will be 45% above or 1018 mm (Normal: 702 mm) while that of the western side is going to be 35% below or about 192 mm (Normal: 295 mm) consecutively. Furthermore, the temperature of the Upper Thailand will be C above while that of the Southern Thailand will be near to slightly above (0 0.4 C). 2. In November 2017, the total rain of the lower portion of the northern part and the central part is expected to be slightly below whereas that of the northeastern and eastern parts and the upper portion of the northern part will be near. Moreover, the total rain of the Southern Thailand (both coasts) will be near. However, the temperature of the Upper Thailand including with that of the Southern Thailand (west coast) will be above while that of the Southern Thailand (east coast) will be near. 3. Later in December 2017, the total rain of the northern, central and eastern parts and that of the Southern Thailand (west coast) will be below while that of the northeastern part will be near. On the other hand, the total rain of the Southern Thailand (east coast) will be above. Moreover, the temperature of the Upper Thailand will be above while that of the Lower Thailand will be near. 4. Then during January 2018, the total rain of the Upper Thailand will be near while that of the Southern Thailand (both coasts) will be above, specifically around the lower portion. Furthermore, the temperature will be near for the whole country for this whole month. * For the information supporting this 3-month climate outlook are at the following pages.

2 Thailand Climate for October-November-December from baseline: November: The Upper Thailand will experience little rain and cool weather for the whole month. As being influenced by active high-pressure air mass areas from China prevailing over the Upper Thailand periodically, temperature will lessen to become cold weather at some areas, specifically at the northern and northeastern parts. However, the Southern Thailand will still experience abundant rain, specifically at the Southern Thailand (east coast) as influenced by the northeastern monsoon and some low-pressure troughs placing over the Southern Thailand and the Gulf of Thailand. December: Usually, high-pressure or cold air mass areas from China will prevail over Thailand for this whole month and be active periodically. As a result, the temperature of the Upper Thailand will lessen and become cold or cool commonly, especially at the upper portions of the northern and northeastern parts. Also, very cold weather at mountainous areas and mount tops can occur. Nevertheless, the Southern Thailand still experiences abundant rain mostly during the 1 st half of this month, especially around the eastern coast. The reason is that the influential northeastern monsoon prevails over the Southern Thailand and the Gulf of Thailand. However, for this month, some tropical cyclones possibly move near or toward Thailand, specifically around the lower portion of the Southern Thailand. January: Cold weather occurs due to the influential high-pressure air mass areas prevailing over Thailand for the whole month. Actually, most temperature of the country will become lowest at this month. In other words, cool or cold weather with morning fog appears commonly, especially for the northern and northeastern parts together with high mountainous areas. While the central and eastern parts will experience cool weather whereas the Southern Thailand is going to experience not too cool or cold weather due to surrounding seas at both sides, except for the upper portion.

3 Outlook of the phenomena that influence climate of Thailand 1. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) During September till October, ENSO will still be neutral (Nino 3.4 = -0.1). And from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, ENSO probability forecast, and sea surface temperature prediction at the Northwest Pacific, ENSO is expected to become neutral for the whole period from November until December 2017 while ENSO is 50% possible to become weak La Niña in January In other words, ENSO will not influence the total rain and temperature of Thailand during November 2017 till January ENSO probability forecast (IRI/CPC) Mean Nino 3.4 index forecast from global climate centers (IRI/CPC) 2. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) During the past September until October, IOD was still neutral. In other words, from IOD forecast models, IOD probability forecast and the sea surface temperature forecast at the Indian Ocean, they predict that IOD will still become neutral for the whole period from November 2017 until January For this reason, IOD will not influence on the rain and temperature of Thailand. IOD index forecast from POAMA model (BOM) SST anomaly forecast in IOD region (NASA)

4 3. Asian Monsoon (Southwest and Northeast monsoon) During the past September till October, the southwestern monsoon starts to weaken. And during the last week of October, the northeastern monsoon has prevailed over Thailand. Together with wind forecast analyses at the 850-hPa and 200-hPa levels with Outgoing Long Wave Radiation (OLR) during November till December 2017, the northeastern monsoon is expected to be slightlyabove- active. Consequently, the total rain of the Upper Thailand will be below while that of the Southern Thailand (both coasts) is above. Furthermore, the temperature of the Upper Thailand will be slightly above while that of the Southern Thailand is going to be near. Mean zonal wind graph around the Indian Ocean and the Southeast Asia between the 850-hPa and 200-hPa levels Mean Zonal wind shear forecast map around the Globe from October until December 2017 between the 850-hPa and 200-hPa levels 4. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) During the beginning of the past October 2017, MJO became weakened. However, MJO developed to become active around the Southeast Asia and the Northwest Pacific, thus influencing on rain increasing of Thailand during middle October Together with the MJO and OLR forecast models, MJO is expected to become weakened during the beginning of November 2017 around the Northwest Pacific. In addition, positive OLR will influence on reducing rain of Thailand during middle November. MJO Index and MJO Phase forecast graph from world climate centers (IRI/CPC) Mean OLR 3-phase forecast, each phase consisting of 5 days. (IRI/CPC) ** For further information, please visit and **

5 Precipitation (mm/month) and Precipitation Anomaly (mm/month) Forecast: Precipitation forecast for November 2017 Precipitation forecast for December 2017 Precipitation forecast for January 2018 Precipitation anomaly forecast for November 2017 Precipitation anomaly forecast for December 2017 Precipitation anomaly forecast For January 2018

6 Mean Temperature ( C) and Mean Temperature Anomaly ( C) Forecast: Mean Temperature forecast for November 2017 Mean Temperature forecast for December 2017 Mean Temperature forecast for January 2018 Temperature Anomaly forecast for November 2017 Temperature Anomaly forecast for December 2017 Temperature Anomaly forecast for January 2018

7 *** Cautions: *** November, chances are high that some tropical cyclones may move toward Thailand or move pass the Southern Thailand. They may move pass the tip of the Indochina Peninsula toward the Gulf of Thailand. Consequently, the Southern Thailand (east coast) will face up with more rainfall influencing flash and forest flood to inundate at some areas. December and January, the westerly middle-to-high level wind waves from Myanmar may move pass the Upper Thailand influencing thunder rain, gusty wind and hail to occur at some areas. The public then should follow the weather forecast news from the Thai Meteorological Department closely further.

8 Part Northern Northeastern Central Eastern Southern Thailand (East Coast) Southern Thailand (West Coast) Bangkok Metropolis and Vicinity Rain (mm) Prediction of Rain (millimeters), Rainy Days (days) and comparing to : Prediction Normal November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 November December January Rainy Comparing Rain Rainy Comparing Rain Rainy Comparing Rain Rainy Rain Rainy Rain Days To Normal (mm) Days To Normal (mm) Days To Normal (mm) Days (mm) Days (mm) (days) (days) (days) (days) (days) % 55% 50% 35% 10% 5% 35% < % 95% 95% 85% 5% 5% 95% < < % 95% 60% 35% 30% 20% 50% Rainy Days (days)

9 Mean Maximum Temperature () and Mean Minimum Temperature () ( C) and comparing to : Part Northern Northeastern Central Eastern Southern Thailand (East Coast) Southern Thailand (West Coast) Bangkok Metropolis and Vicinity Prediction Normal (Baseline period ) November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 November December January Comparing to Normal Comparing to Normal Comparing to Normal Remarks: - Normal s average during the 30-year period (A.D or B.E ) - These long range climate expectation is created by applying some climate models and statistical methods, the public then should follow the daily weather news from the Thai Meteorological Department for more accuracy further. - The next 3-month climate expectation will be at the last week of November Further enquiry of monthly climate, 3-month climate and seasonal forecasts can be preceded at Tel: or Fax: Please follow monthly climate, 3-month climate and seasonal forecasts at at the climate tab.

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