Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Last Week s Rainfall

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1 Last Week s Rainfall 1

2 Last Week s Surface Charts 2

3 Last month s Max Temp Forecasts: ACCESS Model Da te Model MxD1 MxD2 MxD3 MxD4 MxD5 MxD6 MxD7 MxD8 MxD9 MxD Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC Aug- 18 ACC S e p- 18 ACC S e p- 18 ACC

4 Last Week s Model Forecasts OBSERVED 168H ACCESS 168H GFS 168H ECMWF 4

5 MSL Analysis / Sat Image (Fri) 5

6 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Click on: 6

7 Climate Indices Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Little change in the tropical Pacific; El Niño remains possible in

8 Go to Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Current BoM Seasonal Outlook Issued 16-Aug The climate outlook, issued 16 August 2018, shows the first months of spring (September and October) are likely to be drier than average for most of northern, eastern and southern Australia. Spring days are likely to be warmer than average. Nights are also likely to be warmer than average for most areas, except for parts of northern Australia and the southeast of the mainland. 8

9 Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) Victoria Sep. Oct. Nov. The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is (-0.35 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -1.49, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 0, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for JUL/AUG is Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to neither a La Niña nor an El Niño. This suggests: RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV total rainfall will be close to normal in all Victorian Districts. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV overnight temperatures will be close to normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV daytime temperatures will be close to normal in all Victorian Districts.

10 Jet Streams: Fri-24-Aug

11 MSL Pressure: Fri-24-Aug

12 Jet Streams: Sat-25-Aug

13 MSL Pressure: Sat-25-Aug

14 Jet Streams: Sun-26-Aug

15 MSL Pressure: Sun-26-Aug

16 Jet Streams: Mon-27-Aug

17 MSL Pressure: Mon-27-Aug

18 Chart Discussion: Fri-24Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Jet Streams: Tue-28-Aug

19 Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug2018 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Tue-28-Aug

20 Jet Streams: Wed-29-Aug

21 MSL Pressure: Wed-29-Aug

22 Jet Streams: Thu-30-Aug

23 MSL Pressure: Thu-30-Aug

24 Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-30-Aug H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 24

25 Following ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-31-Aug-2018 to Sun-02-Sep-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 25

26 Following ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-31-Aug-2018 to Sun-02-Sep-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 26

27 Following GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-31-Aug-2018 to Sun-02-Sep-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 27

28 PREDICTED WEATHER : ACCESS model, GFS model, ECMWF model Click on : 28

29 Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 Thank You 29

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