ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services

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1 ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services

2 Today Climate Forecast Basics Review of recent climate forecasts and conditions CPC Forecasts and observations for most recent month and season Current Atmosphere and Ice Climate Drivers: SSTs, PDO, ENSO Climate Forecast Guidance ENSO Statistical Dynamic--NMME Climate Prediction Center Last Month CPC Outlooks Next month Next season

3 Climate Forecast Basics Climate Prediction Center: primary NOAA/NWS forecast responsibility Climate Forecasts Relation to some long term normal ( ) Categorical (often three) Probabilistic Traditional Elements Temperature: centered around average Precipitation: centered around median (can significantly differ from the normal, which by convention is the mean)

4 December 2014 Temperature Anomalies Underlying shading shows the CPC outlook Heidke Score: 100 Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

5 December 2014 Precipitation Anomalies Underlying shading shows the CPC outlook Heidke Score: none Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

6 Oct-Nov-Dec 2014 Temperature Anomalies Underlying shading shows the CPC outlook Heidke Score: 90 Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

7 Oct-Nov-Dec 2014 Precipitation Anomalies Underlying shading shows the CPC outlook Heidke Score: -31 Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

8 Mid-January Sea Ice Comparison 21 Jan Jan vs. 2014: Somewhat less ice in Bering, similar coverage Bristol Bay

9 Arctic-Wide Sea Ice Coverage Arctic-wide coverage very similar to past few winters. Total ice volume end of December (from PIOMAS) estimated at greatest since

10 Alaska Near-Shore SSTs

11 Global SST Anomalies Positive PDO Pattern

12 Tropical Pacific SSTs and Winds

13 Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly

14 What s Happened to El Niño? SSTs east of the dateline (Niño 3.4 and 3 regions) have(slightly) exceeded +0.5ºC anomaly since autumn The center of Pacific convection has not shifted to east of the dateline

15 Guidance ENSO Models Expert Evaluation Statistical Trends in the Past 10/15 Years SST Anomalies Oceanic Correlation Dynamic SST Anomalies Global Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

16 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts Plumes: Niño ºC weakens but potential for reemergence late summer?

17 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecast El Niño Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next six months.

18 February Optimum Climate Normals Upper Temp Tercile Lower Temp Tercile Upper Pcpn Tercile Lower Pcpn Tercile

19 Feb-Mar-Apr Optimum Climate Normals Upper Temp Tercile Lower Temp Tercile Upper Pcpn Tercile Lower Pcpn Tercile

20 PDO: Then and now during FMA Temps Precip

21 Dynamic Forecasts Extratropical SSTs Arctic Sea Ice Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

22 NMME Forecast SST Anomalies Moderately positive PDO pattern

23 CFS Sea Ice Forecast February Mean Anomaly February Mean Coverage

24 February 2015 Temp Anomaly Forecasts

25 February 2015 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts

26 Probability Forecasts for February 2015 Fcst from November Fcst from December Fcst from January

27 NMME for FMA 2014: reasonable

28 Feb-Mar-Apr 2015 Temp Anomaly Forecasts

29 Feb-Mar-Apr 2015 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts

30 Probability Forecasts for Feb-Mar-Apr 2015 Fcst from November Fcst from December Fcst from January

31 NMME Skill for February and FMA Temp Pcpn

32 CPC December Forecast for Feb-Mar-Apr

33 And the Answer Is

34 CPC February 2015 Outlook 37% 33% 30% 33% 34% 33% 55% 33% 12% 37% 33% 30% 45% 33% 22% Above% Normal% Below%

35 CPC Feb-Mar-Apr 2015 Outlook 45% 33% 22% 37% 33% 30% 33% 34% 33% Above% Normal% Below% 55% 33% 12% 45% 33% 22% 37% 33% 30%

36 Climate Forecast Links CPC Monthly CPC Seasonal NMME ENSO at CPC (including weekly briefing) enso.shtml ENSO at IRI

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