ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

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1 ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

2 Today Feature of the month: More climate models! Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review CPC Forecasts and observations for most recent month and season Current Atmosphere and Ice Climate Drivers: SSTs, PDO, ENSO Climate Forecast Guidance ENSO Statistical Dynamic--NMME CPC Outlooks December and December-February Spring

3 European Centers Seasonal Climate Models Long been produced but only recently made public through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) UK MET MeteoFrance EMCWF Multi-Model composite Similar forecast elements to North American Multi-Model Ensemble Mean Temp (but more ways to dice) Total Precip Sea Level Pressure

4 Example products

5 Climate Forecast Basics Climate Prediction Center: primary NOAA/NWS forecast responsibility Climate Outlooks Relation to some long term normal (e.g ) Categorical (often three) Probabilistic Traditional Elements Temperature: centered around average Precipitation: centered around median (can significantly differ from the normal, which by convention is the mean) Chances of this box? Chances of this box? Chances of this box?

6 October 2017 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +100 Mid-Month Outlook Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

7 October 2017 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +10 Mid-Month Outlook Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

8 Aug-Sep-Oct 2017 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +82 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

9 Aug-Sep-Oct 2017 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +45 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

10 Mid-November Sea Ice Comparison Nov 15, 2017 Nov 15, 2016

11 Arctic Wide Sea Ice Updated November 15, 2017 Blue line: 2017 Red line: 2016 Green dash: 2012

12 Arctic Sea Ice Volume & Thickness End of October Arctic sea ice volume in satellite era (since 1979): above the lowest few No ice with above average thickness remains PIOMAS/U. Wa

13 Alaska Near-Shore SSTs

14 Global SST Anomalies Not much of a PDO Pattern Cool equatorial Pacific

15 Pacific Decadal Oscillation

16 Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly Heat Content Anomaly ( C) in the upper 300m Source: CPC

17 Tropical Pacific

18 Tropical Pacific SSTs and Winds OISSTv2 Weekly climo Low-level winds are close to normal in Niño 3.4 but enhanced trades west of dateline

19 Time Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly

20 Guidance ENSO Models Expert Evaluation Statistical Trends in the Past 15 Years Correlations SST Anomalies Oceanic Correlation (PDO) Dynamic SST Anomalies Global Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

21 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts November C3S Forecasts La Niña looks likely, but how long will it last?

22 CPC Niño 3.4 Experts Forecast ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch La Niña strongly favored: but barely reaches five seasons threshold

23 Trends December Dec-Feb Temps Precip

24 Constructed Analogs based on Global SSTs

25 PDO Correlation: DJF observed vs. SON PDO Temperature Precipitation

26 Dynamic Forecasts Extratropical SSTs Arctic Sea Ice Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

27 NMME Forecast Dec-Feb SST Anomalies Not a PDO pattern

28 NMME Skill for SST Skill of DJF forecasts made in November

29 CPC Experimental Sea Ice: Freeze-Up Dates Change in date since last month s forecast

30 December 2017 Temp Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep ( C) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

31 December 2017 Pcpn Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep (mm/day) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

32 Recent CFS Outlooks For December Important: anomalies from

33 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for December 2017 Forecast made in: September October November

34 Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep ( C) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

35 Dec-Jan-Feb 2017 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep (mm/day) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

36 C3S Multi-Model Ensemble for DJF

37 Recent La Niña Composites for DJF 1984, 1985, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012 Dynamically downscaled reanalysis composites courtesy of: Peter Bieniek, UAF

38 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for Dec-Jan-Feb Forecast made in: September October November

39 NMME Skill for Dec & Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Pcpn

40 Dec-Jan-Feb Outlook from October

41 And the Answer Is

42 CPC December 2017 Outlook 45% 37% 55% 12% 37% 22% 30% 30% Above% Normal% Below% 22% 30% 37% 30% 37% 45%

43 CPC Dec-Jan-Feb Outlook 45% 22% 37% 30% 55% 12% 45% 22% 37% 30% 22% 45% 30% 37% 22% 45% Above% Normal% Below%

44 First Look: Spring % 22% 37% 30% 45% 22% 22% 45% 37% 30% 30% 37%

45 Climate Forecast Links CPC Monthly CPC Seasonal NMME ENSO at CPC (including weekly briefing) enso.shtml ENSO at IRI

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