Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The Rate of Change

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1 Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The Rate of Change Odalys Martínez-Sánchez Lead Forecaster and Climate Team Leader WFO San Juan UPRRP Environmental Sciences PhD Student

2 Introduction Ways to Analyze Climate Change Time Series : Explains variability of climate data on daily, monthly and seasonal scales. Time series allows you to understand intraseasonal and interannual variability. Frequency Analysis : Explains distribution of climate values. Rate of Change (ROC) : How variables are responding (increase/decrease/no change). How fast the changes occur.

3 Objective: To determine the rate of change in seasonal rainfall using the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) and Climate Prediction Center Optimum Climate Normals (CPC OCN).

4 Methodology Rate of Change (ROC) ROC explains speed of change. The higher the value of ROC, the faster the change occurs; positive/negative values indicate increased/decreased rainfall. It is calculated using the linear slope of the ensemble mean between Climate Prediction Center Optimum Climate Normals and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average. Climate Prediction Center Optimum Climate Normals (CPC OCN) Simple moving average of 15 years which are plotted at the center point of the 15-year period. Since no values are available for the first and last 7 years of the time series, these values are replaced with the first and last available moving average. CPC OCN provides the most recent data average; however, this average cannot be interpreted as the expected or most likely values during the climate change conditions. Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) Variation on a moving average method and applies greater weight on the most recent 15-year running mean. EWMA ordinates are plotted at the center point of the 15-year period. The first/last 7 years of the time series are replaced with the first/last available EWMA values as a constant. EWMA provides a more accurate estimate; however, this average still cannot be interpreted as the expected or most likely value during the climate change conditions.

5 Methodology Continuous data record Period of record must be at least 30 years long. Missing values - Less than 9 days per month (NCDC threshold) (30% of missing values). For this study, selected stations have less than 5 % of missing values. Reliable sources Data well documented (metadata). If a station was relocated, should be compatible (NWS thresholds, within 5 miles and/or 100 feet or less in elevation). For this study, four stations were relocated within 2 miles. Quality controlled data Missing values are filled-in using an optimal interpolation technique.

6 Methodology Based on the bimodal rainfall pattern, seasons were defined as: Dry Season Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar Rainy Season / 1 st Peak or Initial Maximum Apr-May Relative Minimum / Summer Jun-Jul-Aug Rainy Season / 2 nd Peak Sept-Oct-Nov

7 Rainfall Pattern and Selected Stations

8 Rainfall Pattern and Selected Stations In most parts of the Caribbean, rainfall is bimodal with an initial maximum around May, a relative minimum between Jun-Aug (Mid Summer Drought), and a 2nd peak in Sep-Nov. (Rudloff,1981; Giannini et al., 2000; Chen and Taylor, 2002)

9 RESULTS

10 San Juan Intl Airport Dry Season Summer Inches per year 0.77 Inches per decade 2.31 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 3.05 Inches per decade 9.15 Inches per 30-year period / without extreme values 0.20 Inches per year 2 Inches per decade 6 Inches per 30-year period

11 San Juan Intl Airport 1 st Peak 2 nd Peak Inches per year 0.68 Inches per decade 2.04 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 1.37 Inches per decade 4.11 Inches per 30-year period

12 Values in bold indicate the two highest values of ROC per station. Values in blue/brown show an increasing/decreasing trend. * / without extreme values. Decreasing trend. The Rainfall Rate of Change San Juan Airport Juncos 1SE Guayama 2S Ponce 4E Dry Season in/year 0.77 in/ decade 2.31in/30-year period in/year 0.3 in/decade 0.9 in/30-year period in/year 0.71 in/decade 2.13 in/30-year period in/year 0.36 in/decade 1.08 in/30-year period Rainy Season 1 st Peak or Initial Maximum in/year 0.68 in/decade 2.04 in/30-year period in/year 1.1 in/decade 3.3 in/30-year period in/year 1.19 in/decade 3.57 in/30-year period in/year 0.16 in/decade 0.48 in/30-year period Summer 0.20 in/year * 2 in/decade* 6 in/ 30-year period* in/year* 0.63 in/decade * 1.89 in/30-year period * in/year * 3.08 in/decade * 9.24 in/30-year period* in/year 1.04 in/decade 3.12 in/30-year period Rainy Season 2nd Peak in/year 1.37 in/ decade 4.11 in/30-year period in/year 1.14 in/decade 3.42 in/30-year period in/year 1.68 in/decade 5.04 in/30-year period in/year 1.03 in/decade 3.09 in/30-year period Lajas AES in/year 0.34 in/decade 1.02 in/30-year period in/year 0.32 in/decade 0.96 in/30-year period in/year 0.33in/decade 0.99 in/30-year period in/year 0.15 in/decade 0.45 in/30-year period Manati 2E in/ year 1.69 in/decade 5.07 in/30-year period in/year 0.22 in/decade 0.66 in/30-year period in/year 2.44 in/decade 7.32 in/30-year period in/year 1.21 in/decade 3.63 in/ 30-year period Adjuntas AES in/year 0.92 in/decade 2.76 in/30-year period in/year 0.94 in/decade 2.82 in/30-year period in/year 0.74 in/decade 2.22 in/30-year period Inches per year 1.8 Inches per decade 5.4 in/30-year period Coloso in/year 0.43 in/decade 1.29 in/30-year period in/year 0.93 in/decade 2.79 in/30-year period in/year 1.66 in/decade 4.98 in/30-year period in/year 0.1 in/decade 0.3 in/30-year period Data suggest that the faster changes are occurring across most of the stations during Jun thru Nov toward a slightly wetter pattern. A slight decrease in rainfall is also noted across south and southwest PR.

13 Average Number of Days with rainfall totals 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 inches. The chance for days with rainfall totals 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 inches are higher during the 2 nd peak of the rainy season. This maximum is associated with the peak of hurricane season as well as a longer season (1 st peak vs 2 nd peak). Island wide average With just 40% of current decade, numbers may suggest an increase in number of days with rainfall totals 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 inches (all season). Summer

14 Average Number of Days with rainfall totals 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 inches. Island wide average Average number of days increased in Sep-Oct and Nov during the decade. No major variation per decade is noted during the dry season as well as the mid summer drought season (without ). The average number of days is highly variable during the 1 st peak of rainy season or initial maximum. Summer

15 Average Number of Days with rainfall totals 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 inches. Although between 2000 and 2009 the only direct hit was TS Jeanne during Sep 2004, several tropical cyclones left significant rainfall accumulations across Puerto. Erika (Sep. 2009) Hanna (Aug.-Sep. 2008) Jeanne (Sep. 2004) Kyle (Sep. 2008) Mindy (Oct. 2003) Noel (Oct. 2007) Odette (Dec. 2003) Olga (Dec. 2007) T.D. #9A (Aug. 2003) Gaston (Sep. 2010) Otto (Oct. 2010) Therefore, the increase in number of days cannot be associated completely with an increase in shower intensity per se. Distant tropical systems still produce significant rainfall accumulation across Puerto Rico.

16 Historic Rainfall at San Juan Puerto Rico Tropical wave, divergence aloft, and very high moisture. Streaming effect enhanced instability downwind from the Luquillo Mountain Range and the Cayey Mountain Range. Streamers repeatedly developed producing thunderstorms across San Juan Metro. Rainfall events like July 18, 2013 are extremely rare due to the complexity of environmental factors including local topography.

17 Findings Rate of Change is a good tool in order to understand how variables are responding. However these values cannot be interpreted as the expected value. Data suggest that the faster changes are occurring across most of the stations during June thru November toward a slightly wetter pattern (around 2 inches per decade during the mid summer drought and 1.50 inches per decade during the 2nd peak of rainy season). A slight decrease in rainfall is also noted across portions of south and southwest PR. The average number of days with rainfall totals 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 inches increased in Sep-Oct and Nov during the decade. This increase cannot be associated completely with an increase in shower intensity per se. Distant tropical systems still produce significant rainfall accumulation across Puerto Rico. With just 40% of current decade, numbers may suggest an increase in number of days with rainfall totals 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 inches (all seasons). Rainfall events like July 18, 2013 are extremely rare due to the complexity of environmental factors including local topography. Further analysis is required, especially to include NAO and ENSO influences.

18 National Climate Assessment Observed and Projected Climate Change Daily and five-day rainfall intensities have increased. (unclear, however numbers may suggest an increase, finding #2). Summers have been either increasingly dry or extremely wet. (finding #1, toward a slightly wetter pattern) For the Caribbean, rainfall trends are unclear, with some regions experiencing smaller annual amounts of rainfall and some increasing amounts. (finding #1) For the Caribbean, is difficult to project the magnitude of rainfall changes, although the majority of models show future decreases in precipitation are likely. In general, annual average decreases are likely to be spread across the entire region.

19 THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

20 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

21 Dry Season Coloso Summer Inches per year 0.43 Inches per decade 1.29 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 1.66 Inches per decade 4.98 Inches per 30-year period

22 Coloso 1 st Peak 2 nd Peak Inches per year 0.93 Inches per decade 2.79 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 0.1 Inches per decade 0.3 Inches per 30-year period

23 Dry Season Ponce 4 E Summer Inches per year 0.36 Inches per decade 1.08 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 1.04 Inches per decade 3.12 Inches per 30-year period

24 Ponce 4 E 1 st Peak 2 nd Peak Inches per year Inches per decade Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 1.03 Inches per decade 3.09 Inches per 30-year period

25 Dry Season Juncos 1 SE Summer Inches per year 0.3 Inches per decade 0.9 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 1.66 Inches per decade 4.98 Inches per 30-year period / without extreme values Inches per year 0.63 Inches per decade 1.89 Inches per 30-year period

26 Juncos 1 SE 1 st Peak 2 nd Peak Inches per year 1.1 Inches per decade 3.3 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 1.14 Inches per decade 3.42 Inches per 30-year period

27 Dry Season Guayama 2 E Summer Inches per year 0.71 Inches per decade 2.13 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 3.59 Inches per decade Inches per 30-year period / without extremes values Inches per year 3.08 Inches per decade 9.24 Inches per 30-year period

28 Guayama 2 E 1 st Peak 2 nd Peak Inches per year 1.19 Inches per decade 3.57 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 1.68 Inches per decade 5.04 Inches per 30-year period

29 Dry Season Lajas AES Summer Inches per year Inches per decade Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 0.33 Inches per decade 0.99 Inches per 30-year period

30 Lajas AES 1 st Peak 2 nd Peak Inches per year 0.32 Inches per decade 0.96 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year Inches per decade Inches per 30-year period

31 Dry Season Manati 2 E Summer Inches per year 1.69 Inches per decade 5.07 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 2.44 Inches per decade 7.32 Inches per 30-year period

32 Manati 2 E 1 st Peak 2 nd Peak Inches per year 0.22 Inches per decade 0.66 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 1.21 Inches per decade 3.63 Inches per 30-year period

33 Dry Season Adjuntas AES Summer Inches per year 0.92 Inches per decade 2.76 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 0.74 Inches per decade 2.22 Inches per 30-year period

34 Adjuntas AES 1 st Peak 2 nd Peak Inches per year 0.94 Inches per decade 2.82 Inches per 30-year period Inches per year 1.8 Inches per decade 5.4 Inches per 30-year period

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39 Summary ENSO-neutral conditions continue.* ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.*

40 NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5 C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

41 Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI El Niño Highest ONI Value La Niña Lowest ONI Value JJA 1951 DJF 1951/ DJF 1952/53 JFM MAM 1957 JJA OND 1958 FMA MJJ 1963 JFM AMJ 1965 MAM JAS 1968 DJF 1969/ AMJ 1972 FMA ASO JFM ASO 1977 JFM AMJ 1982 MJJ JAS 1986 JFM AMJ 1991 MJJ ASO 1994 FMA AMJ 1997 MAM AMJ 2002 JFM JJA 2004 DJF 2004/ ASO 2006 DJF 2006/ JJA 2009 MAM ASO 1949 JAS SON 1950 JFM AMJ 1954 NDJ 1956/ AMJ 1964 DJF 1964/ JJA 1970 DJF 1971/ AMJ 1973 JJA SON 1974 MAM ASO 1983 DJF 1983/ SON 1984 ASO AMJ 1988 AMJ ASO 1995 FMA JJA 1998 FMA OND 2005 FMA JAS 2007 MJJ OND 2008 FMA JJA 2010 MAM ASO 2011 FMA

42 Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ

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