1. INTRODUCTION 2. HIGHLIGHTS

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1 Bulletin Issue January 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/03/44 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Seasonal Bulletin, Review for October to December (OND) Season 2016 For referencing within this bulletin, the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is generally subdivided into three sub-sectors: The equatorial sector lying approximately between -5 o and 5 o latitude, with the northern and southern sectors occupying the rest of the northern and southern parts of the region respectively 1. INTRODUCTION This bulletin reviews the climate conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region in the period of October to December (OND) 2016 and also provides the outlook for the March to May (MAM) 2017 season. Highlights on the socioeconomic impacts associated with the observed climate are also given. During the OND 2016 period the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) started in a weak negative phase that extended to a neutral phase as the year ended. This presented a transition from weak La Nina and negative phase of the IOD into a neutral phases of the systems respectively. A weak negative ENSO index is expected to persist in the neutral phase as during the period that extends towards the mid of The IOD is likely to transition through a neutral phase into a positive phase towards the mid of the year 2017, however staying in a neutral phase. In the October to December rainfall season, rainfall is mainly expected in the southern sector, the equatorial sector, and in a few areas in the eastern part of the northern sector of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). During the 2016 OND rainfall over most parts of the GHA region was near average to below the average amount expected for the season. These had led to the near normal to severely dry conditions especially in the equatorial and southern sectors of the GHA. 2. HIGHLIGHTS During 2016 October to December season, rainfall was experienced mainly over western and eastern part of southern sector, over much of the equatorial excluding some parts in the north and north eastern; and over southern western and south central parts of the northern sector of the GHA, with much of the rainfall concentrated in the western part of the equatorial and southern sectors of the GHA. The rainfall in most of these areas translated into near average to be low average conditions resulting to near normal to severely dry conditions. The observed rainfall conditions over parts of the Greater Horn of Africa during the month OND 2016 season resulted in drought conditions and associated impacts such as: water stress, poor prospects for crop and livestock production, deterioration of pasture resources, food insecurity. The outlook of February to April 2017 shows that of the GHA is likely to receive near normal to below normal rainfall except for a few areas in western part of the equatorial sector and also in the south western and south central part of the northern sector. Above average temperature is also likely to be experienced in much of the GHA region except for central part of the equatorial sector as well as eastern parts of the northern sector during the same period. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

2 3. CLIMATE PATTERNS IN SEPTEMBER 2016 The climatological summary for the rainfall in terms of amount, percentage of average, and standardized precipitation index for October to December 2016 Rainfall performance over the GHA are provided in this section. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PERFORMANCE DURING SEPTEMBR 2016 Rainfall amounts in September 2016 During the October to December 2016 rainfall season, rainfall greater than 100mm was experienced in west, south and north eastern South Sudan; west and south western Ethiopia; over much of Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi; and over much of Kenya and Tanzania except for the north western part Kenya and central part of Tanzania. Rainfall amounts greater than 200mm was experienced in south western Ethiopia, south western South Sudan west and South of Uganda; over west, central and a few areas in eastern Kenya; over much of Rwanda and Burundi; and over north western Tanzania. The rest of the GHA region recorded less than 100mm of rainfall with the northern part of Sudan, north western Kenya, and a few isolated places in northern Somalia recording less than 10mm of rainfall (Figure 1). Figure 1: Spatial distribution of rainfall during the period of October to December 2016 Rainfall severity in the October to December 2016 season Figure 2 shows the percent of average rainfall of the October to December 2016 rainfall period, and Figure 3 shows the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the same period, and Figure 4 shows the percent of average rainfall and the SPI for the individual months of October, November and December Much of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region indicated near normal or below normal rainfall which was less than 75% of the long term average conditions except for a few isolated areas in the northern sector and western equatorial sector of the GHA, which recorded rainfall amounts greater than 125% of the long term average rainfall, associated with moderately wet to severely wet conditions during the October to December 2016 period. Rainfall amounts of more than 125% of long term average was recorded in few areas around eastern and western Sudan; western and north eastern Ethiopia; southern Eritrea; over parts of Djibouti; over few area in western Uganda, north western Rwanda, and western Burundi. Moderately dry to severely dry rainfall conditions corresponding to below average IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

3 rainfall was observed in areas around southern part of Sudan; over western and eastern South Sudan; over western northern and eastern Ethiopia, extending into northern and central Somalia; in north western, eastern and southern Uganda extending to western and north western Kenya; over parts of central and coastal Kenya extending to southern tip of Somalia; and over much of Tanzania except for north eastern and western parts. In the month of October 2016 much of the GHA recorded below average rainfall except for few areas in central part of the northern sector and western part of the equatorial sector. Moderately dry to severely dry rainfall conditions was observed in much of south eastern part of the northern sector extending to eastern, central and western part of the equatorial sector, and over a few areas in western northern sector, western equatorial sector, and central parts of the southern sector. In the month of November 2016 dry conditions persisted within the southern central and south eastern part of the northern sector, over much of the southern sector, and over central and coastal part of the equatorial Sector. In the month of December 2016 dry conditions were experienced in much of the equatorial and southern sector of the GHA. Figure 2: Percentage of average rainfall for October to December 2016 Figure3: Standardized Precipitation Index for October to December 2016 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

4 Figure 4: Percent of average and the Standardized Precipitation Index for the months of October, November and December 2016 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

5 TEMPERATURE PERFORMANCE During the period of OND 2016, average maximum temperatures warmer than the average were observed mainly in western part of the GHA region. These includes: southern part of Sudan; over much of South Sudan and Uganda; southern western Eritrea; over western and south eastern Ethiopia extending to central Somalia; over north western, western, and eastern Kenya; over eastern Rwanda and Burundi; and over much of Tanzania (Figure 5a). Much of the rest of the GHA recorded near average maximum temperature. Much of the GHA region except for parts of central and southern Eritrea, western and northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central Kenya, and eastern and south eastern Tanzania experienced warmer than average minimum temperature during the OND 2016 period (Figure 5b). Figure 5a:Average maximum temperature for OND 2016 Figure 5b: Average minimum temperature anomalies for OND STATUS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEMS Oceanic Nino index (ONI) has declined into a negative phase during the period of October to December 2016, evolving into a La Nina condition by the end of the year 2016 (Figure 6a). There has been observed near average to cooler than average sea surface temperature (SSTs) over central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and western part of Niño 4). A transition to ENSO-neutral condition is expected to occur by February 2017 then continuing through the first half of Within the Indian Ocean region near average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) dominated much of the equatorial Indian Ocean with near average to cooler than average SST being observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean during the OND 2016 period. This pattern gave rise to a weak negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which transitioned into neutral phase (Figure 6b) during the OND 2016 season. Model prediction expects the IOD transition into a positive neutral phase in the initial months of the year IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

6 IOD ONI October - December Analogue years based on ONI DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ Figure 6a: Figure 1 Three months running average of the Oceanic Nino Index for 2016 and analogue years IOD AND ANALOGUE YEARS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Figure 6b: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) for 2016 and Analogue Years IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

7 5. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY TO APRIL 2017 PERIOD The rainfall forecast for February to April 2017 The February to April rainfall season has a high likely wood of experiencing below normal rainfall in most part of the southern sector, central and eastern equatorial sector, and also southern and eastern part of the northern sector of the GHA. Rainfall activities is likely to be concentrated in the southern sector, western part of the equatorial sector, and also south central part of the northern sector recording more than 200mm of rainfall (Figure 7a and 7b). Figure 7: February to April total rainfall and probability forecast by 6 GCMs: CMC2-CanCM4, NCAR- CESM1, NCEP-CFSv2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and NASA-GMAO Temperature Outlook for February to April 2017 Much of the GHA is likely to record warmer than average mean temperature, except for a few areas in eastern Sudan, western, central and eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, north eastern and eastern Uganda, western and central Kenya, and northern and western Rwanda, which show a higher chance of receiving cooler than the average mean temperature. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

8 Figure 8: February-April 2017 average 2M-temperature and probability forecast by 6 GCMS: CMC2- CANCM4, NCAR-CESM1, NCEP-CFSV2, GFDL-CM2P5-FLOR-A06, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and NASA-GMAO IMPACTS ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTORS The socio-economic impacts associated with observed rainfall conditions and those from the climate outlook are provided below. Vegetation condition indicators and associated impacts The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly for the period of October to December 2016 indicates that deteriorated vegetative conditions was experienced in the region around south eastern South Sudan extending into southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and eastern and central Kenya; over western and southern Uganda; and over parts of southern Rwanda, northern Burundi, and north western, north and north eastern Tanzania. A few areas in south eastern Sudan, north eastern South Sudan, and over areas in western Tanzania which indicated improvement in vegetative conditions. (Figure 9). The rest of the GHA region indicated little or no change in vegetative conditions. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

9 Figure 9: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of October to December 2016 over the Greater Horn of Africa Impacts of observed climate conditions during October to December 2016 During the period of October to December 2016 impacts much dry conditions leading to drought effects were reported in some areas especially in southern part of the northern sector, and in parts of equatorial and southern sector too. Some of the challenges included: deterioration in water, pasture and crop conditions, leading to water stress and poor prospects of crop and livestock production. This has led to migration of pastoralists, loss of livestock, human wildlife conflict, and increased tension in pastoral areas. The below normal rainfall has also impacted the supply of water to major urban areas especially in the equatorial sector, and low water levels in dams which is likely to impact hydroelectricity production was also reported in Kenya. Potential impacts for February to April 2016 climate outlook IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

10 In the likely persistence of the near normal to below normal conditions the drought impact is likely to heighten especially in the equatorial sector, and the southern sector. However a few areas in the southern sector and western part of the equatorial sector are likely to experience improvement in water, and pasture conditions. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued January

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