ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

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1 ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

2 Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review CPC Forecasts and observations for most recent month and season Current Atmosphere and Ice Climate Drivers: SSTs, PDO, ENSO Climate Forecast Guidance ENSO Statistical Dynamic NMME & C3S CPC Outlooks January and Jan through March 2018 Spring 2018

3 2017 Sea Ice Near Alaska: A long slow freeze

4 Later autumn freeze-up near Alaska

5 Climate Forecast Basics Climate Prediction Center: primary NOAA/NWS forecast responsibility Climate Outlooks Relation to some long term normal (e.g ) Categorical (often three) Probabilistic Traditional Elements Temperature: centered around average Precipitation: centered around median (can significantly differ from the normal, which by convention is the mean) Chances of this box? Chances of this box? Chances of this box?

6 November 2017 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +61 Mid-Month Outlook Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

7 November 2017 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +100 Mid-Month Outlook Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

8 Sep-Oct-Nov 2017 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +72 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

9 Sep-Oct-Nov 2017 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: -29 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision

10 Mid-December Sea Ice Comparison Dec 21, 2017 Dec 21, 2016

11 Arctic Wide Sea Ice Updated December 20, 2017 Blue line: 2017 Red line: 2016 Green dash: 2012

12 Arctic Sea Ice Volume & Thickness End of November Arctic sea ice volume in satellite era (since 1979): third lowest No ice with above average thickness PIOMAS/U. Wa

13 Alaska Near-Shore SSTs

14 Global SST Anomalies Not much of a PDO Pattern Cool equatorial Pacific east of dateline, warm west

15 Pacific Decadal Oscillation November 2017 Index not yet posted but likely near zero

16 Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly Heat Content Anomaly ( C) in the upper 300m Source: CPC

17 Tropical Pacific

18 Tropical Pacific SSTs & Atmosphere More convection Less convection Enhanced trade winds central and western Pacific OISSTv2 Weekly climo

19 Time Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly

20 Guidance ENSO Models Expert Evaluation Statistical Trends in the Past 15 Years Correlations SST Anomalies Oceanic Correlation (PDO) Dynamic SST Anomalies Global Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

21 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts Model-Based Probabilities La Niña into NH Spring

22 CPC Niño 3.4 Experts Forecast ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory La Niña decaying during the spring

23 Trends January Compared to =Below normal 34-66=Near normal =Above normal Temps Jan-Mar Precip

24 Constructed Analogs based on Global SSTs

25 PDO Correlation: JFM observed vs. OND PDO Temperature Precipitation

26 Recent La Niña Composites for JFM 1984, 1985, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012 Dynamically downscaled reanalysis composites courtesy of: Peter Bieniek, UAF

27 Dynamic Forecasts Extratropical SSTs Arctic Sea Ice Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

28 NMME Jan-Mar 2018 SST Anomalies Forecast Skill Not a PDO pattern

29 January 2018 Temp Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep ( C) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

30 January 2018 Pcpn Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep (mm/day) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

31 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for January 2018 Forecast made in: October November December

32 Jan-Feb-Mar 2018 Temp Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep ( C) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

33 Jan-Feb-Mar 2018 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep (mm/day) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

34 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for Jan-Feb-Mar 2018 Forecast made in: October November December

35 C3S Multi-Model Ensemble for JFM 2018

36 NMME Skill for Jan & Jan-Feb-Mar Temp Pcpn

37 Jan-Feb-Mar 2018 Outlook from November

38 And the Answer Is

39 CPC January 2018 Outlook 45% 22% 55% 12% 22% 45% Above% Normal% Below% 22% 30% 37% 30% 37% 45%

40 CPC Jan-Feb-Mar 2018 Outlook 37% 30% 45% 22% 37% 30% 55% 12% 45% 22% 30% 37% 22% 45% 30% 37% 22% 45% Above% Normal% Below%

41 45% 22% Look Ahead: Spring % 30% 45% 22% 22% 45% 37% 30% 30% 37%

42 Climate Forecast Links CPC Monthly CPC Seasonal NMME ENSO at CPC (including weekly briefing) enso.shtml ENSO at IRI

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