Recent ECMWF Developments

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Recent ECMWF Developments"

Brice Roberts
5 years ago
Views:

1 Recent ECMWF Developments Tim Hewson (with contributions from many ECMWF colleagues!) ECMWF November 2, 2017

forecast System 5 IFS upgrade highlights New products Precipitation type 2018 N D J F

2 Outline Last Year IFS upgrade highlights 43r1 and 43r3 Standard web Chart products 2017 N D J F M A M J J A S O 43r1 web 43r3 ecc ecc eccharts The Coming Year Seasonal forecast System 5 IFS upgrade highlights New products Precipitation type 2018 N D J F M A M J J A S O 45r1 (45r2?) S5 Prod ecc ecc FUG Point Rainfall New Forecast User Guide 2

3 The Last Year IFS upgrade highlights 43r1 and 43r3 Standard web Chart products eccharts 3

4 IFS Cycle 43r1 Nov 2016 Better EDA (higher resolution+..) helps TC analysis Better use of SYNOPs (altitude-related adjustments) Various satellite-related changes in assimilation Better low cloud (e.g. marine Sc) Improved sunshine duration diagnostic Much higher resolution ocean model for ENS Interactive LIM-2 sea ice model for ENS + 4

5 Ocean / Sea ice The new ocean (NEMO version 3.4) configuration included a higher vertical (75 instead of the 42 layers used in operation) and horizontal (1/4 instead of 1 degree) resolutions Far more ocean levels near surface, so SST much more responsive (e.g. top layer 1m, was 10m) Introduction of a dynamical sea-ice model (LIM 2.0) ORAS5 ocean reanalysis The figures show the reduction in RMSE of ensemble-mean forecast of sea-ice at t+10d between 43R1 (sea ice fraction predicted with NEMO/LIM2) and 41R2 (sea ice fraction fixed). (Thanks to Sarah Keeley) October 29,

6 October 29,

7 Cycle 43r3 Jul 2017 Assimilation improvements notably dropsondes helps TCs Better use of satellite data (various changes) Improved aerosol representation Affects visibility diagnostic (higher values) + 7

8 IFS Cycle 43r3 (11 July 2017) 43r3 included changes in the data assimilation system that led to improvements in the analysis of tropical cyclones. October 29,

9 TC story: IFS Cycle 41r2 Tropical cycle Matthew (Oct 2016) October 2016 Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW The problem was still present after the implementation of the higherresolution cycle in March (Thanks to Massimo Bonavita) October 29,

10 TC story: IFS Cycle 43r3 Tropical cycle IRMA (Oct 2017) O-B October 2017 Tropical Cyclone IRMA O-A Changes introduced in 43r3 led to improvements in the TC analyses: - Smoother (TL159 instead of TL319) B variances - Penalty term in drop-sondes error UTC UTC (Thanks to Massimo Bonavita) October 29,

between 2015 and 2017 led to substantial improvements in the

11 TC story: IFS Cycle 43r3 Tropical cycle Patricia (Oct 2015) October 2015 Tropical Cyclone PATRICIA Changes introduced between 2015 and 2017 led to substantial improvements in the TC analyses. 41r1 43r3 (Thanks to Massimo Bonavita) October 29,

eccharts updates list not exhaustive New fields Model climate at various percentiles Height of zero/1 deg C Theta-W (for snow prediction mainly) Aviation-related cloud parameters PV at 300/500mb SST

12 eccharts updates list not exhaustive New fields Model climate at various percentiles Height of zero/1 deg C Theta-W (for snow prediction mainly) Aviation-related cloud parameters PV at 300/500mb SST and sea ice cover from the Control forecast (they evolve!) Sig wave heights for specific period intervals (e.g. for swell) New background layer Admin boundaries! * New Monthly forecast products up to week 6! Although not much scientific justification yet for forecasting synoptic patterns beyond week 3 Map and meteogram formats * October 29,

13 Swell propagation example forecast to day 4, following N Atlantic storm October 29,

Week 6, MSLP anomalies, 95% Significance level set for shading (dotted = 99%) User can set significance level threshold Remember that 5% of area will be shaded by

14 Week 6, MSLP anomalies, 95% Significance level set for shading (dotted = 99%) User can set significance level threshold Remember that 5% of area will be shaded by chance at 95% sig level Furthermore, significance does not mean skill It just tells you if M-Climate and FC distributions are significantly different October 29,

15 Week 6, 2m Temperature, Probabilities for UPPER DECILE October 29,

16 Week 6, Total Precipitation, Probabilities for UPPER DECILE Week 4 Upper tercile Europe October 29,

17 6 week Meteograms available for sites Clickable in eccharts Or via Dashboard using location search October 29,

18 The Coming Year Seasonal forecast System 5 IFS upgrade highlights New products Precipitation type Point Rainfall New Forecast User Guide 18

19 System 5 new seasonal forecast system Nov 2017 Do not expect any leaps in skill over Europe! October 29,

20 October 29,

21 Cycle 45r1 Feb 2018 Sea ice model and SST coupling into HRES Compatibility with ENS Again improved use of satellite data (various changes) Much improved use of AIREP winds Improved cloud physics Very big improvements near coasts in warm rain situations New parameters: Max CAPE and CAPESHEAR in last 6 hours Lightning flash density Total precipitation rate at surface 21

22 22

23 New Lightning Density forecast products 23

24 HRES: IRMA and SST evolution (research run) (Thanks to Kristian Mogensen) October 29,

25 New Post-processed Products Precipitation Type Meteograms Maps Destined for eccharts (+web?) Paper accepted for Weather and Forecasting (subject to minor revision) Point Rainfall (12h periods, & 6h, 24h later) Generates Percentiles 1 to 99 for rainfall-at-a-point (within each grid box) Can display probabilities for > threshold and < threshold, or a chosen percentile Destined for eccharts, also EFAS/GLOFAS layer(s) Brief ECMWF Newsletter article (Autumn 2017). Substantial journal paper to come. Both include a calibration component. Notably the Point-rainfall. October 29,

26 Precipitation Type Meteograms site in Finland freezing rain event D2 D3 D4 D5 October 29,

27 Precipitation Type Maps Most probable in colour if prob(ppn) > 50% T+12h T+84h October 29,

28 Point Rainfall - Day 2 forecast PROBS >20mm / 12h in % RAW ENSEMBLE FORECAST POST-PROCESSED POINT FORECAST October 29, 2014 EMS 2017

29 October 29, 2014 EMS 2017

30 PROBS >1mm / 12h in % RAW ENSEMBLE FORECAST POST-PROCESSED POINT FORECAST October 29, 2014 EMS 2017

31 N Italy flash floods 25 June 2017 Day 2 forecasts Prob > 50mm/12h ROC area October 29, 2014 EMS 2017

32 Verification 1 year, global coverage October 29, 2014 EMS 2017

33 New forecast user guide On web (previously pdf) Fully updated Forecaster-oriented Numerous links Contains animations Proof-reading stage now Release target: Jan 2018 Will be kept up-to-date in future Provided there is MS/CS uptake, and funding is available October 29,

34 Remember: ECMWF Forecaster User Facilities! Model Issues Severe event Catalogue Contact address Forecast System Changes documented New Forecast User Guide (to come) To find do google search for forecast user (first link) October 29,

35 October 29,

Impact at +5d on wind (left) and temperature (right) root-mean-square error: the coupling reduces

36 IFS Cycle 45r1 (planned for Feb 2018) In 45r1 also the high-resolution forecast will be coupled. This plot shows the impact of coupling (1-Dec to 18-Feb 2017 fcs). Improv. Impact at +5d on wind (left) and temperature (right) root-mean-square error: the coupling reduces the errors of the tropical wind and temperature by about 1% and 3% respectively. Wind RMSE Temp RMSE October 29,

ECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty

ECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty Using ECMWF s Forecasts, 2015 David Richardson Head of Evaluation, Forecast Department David.Richardson@ecmwf.int ECMWF June 12,