ECMWF Medium-Range Forecast Graphical Products

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Agatha Richards
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ECMWF Medium-Range Forecast Graphical Products Analysis Snow cover, ice cover, albedo, leaf area index, orography and sea depth Albedo Europe, Global, Central Europe, North West Europe, North East

East Tropic, Equatorial Pacific, North Pole, South Pole Step: 0, 120, 240 Orography and sea depth Europe, Global, Central Europe, North West Europe, North East East Tropic, Equatorial Pacific, North

Pole Step: 0, 120, 240, 252, 360 Snow depth and sea ice Europe, Global, Central Europe, North West Europe, North East East Tropic, Equatorial Pacific, North Pole, South Pole Analysis Snow cover, ice

1 ECMWF Medium-Range Forecast Graphical Products Analysis Snow cover, ice cover, albedo, leaf area index, orography and sea depth Albedo Europe, Global, Central Europe, North West Europe, North East Europe, South West Europe, South East Europe, Northern Africa, North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, North America, South America, Western Asia, Eastern Asia, Southern Africa, Australasia, West Tropic, East Tropic, Equatorial Pacific, North Pole, South Pole Step: 0, 120, 240 Orography and sea depth Europe, Global, Central Europe, North West Europe, North East Europe, South West Europe, South East Europe, Northern Africa, North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, North America, South America, Western Asia, Eastern Asia, Southern Africa, Australasia, West Tropic, East Tropic, Equatorial Pacific, North Pole, South Pole Step: 0, 120, 252 Sea surface temperature Level: Sst, Sst anomaly Europe, Global, Central Europe, North West Europe, North East Europe, South West Europe, South East Europe, Northern Africa, North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, North America, South America, Western Asia, Eastern Asia, Southern Africa, Australasia, West Tropic, East Tropic, Equatorial Pacific, North Pole, South Pole Step: 0, 120, 240, 252, 360 Snow depth and sea ice Europe, Global, Central Europe, North West Europe, North East Europe, South West Europe, South East Europe, Northern Africa, North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, North America, South America, Western Asia, Eastern Asia, Southern Africa, Australasia, West Tropic, East Tropic, Equatorial Pacific, North Pole, South Pole Analysis Snow cover, ice cover, albedo, leaf area index, orography and sea depth

2 Deterministic forecast 2m temperature and 30m winds Geopotential at 500 hpa and Temperature at 850 hpa High, medium and low cloud cover Mean period of total swell and direction Mean period of wind waves and direction Mean sea level pressure and 24h accumulated precipitations Mean sea level pressure and wind at 200 hpa Step: 0, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, 144, 168, North hemisphere, South hemisphere Relative humidity and wind (at 700 hpa and 850 hpa ) Height: 700 hpa, 850 hpa Step: 0, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, 144, 168, North hemisphere, South hemisphere

3 Significant height of total swell and mean direction Significant height of wind waves and mean direction Significant wave height and mean direction Vorticity, divergence and wind at 700 hpa Vorticity, Divergence Step: 0, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, 144 Tropics 40deg, Tropics 160deg, Tropics -80deg Wave mean period Deterministic forecast Deterministic forecast Ensemble Prediction System Clusters EPS tubes Tubes: 96, 168 Page: 1, 2 Ensemble Prediction System Ensemble Mean and normalised Standard Deviation Absolute and Normalised EPS spread, 252, 264, 276, 288, 300, 312, 324, 336, 348, 360 Level: 500, 850 Europe, North America, South America, Africa, Asia, Australia

4 Absolute and Normalised EPS spread, 252, 264, 276, 288, 300, 312, 324, 336, 348, 360 Level: 500, 1000 Europe, North America, South America, Africa, Asia, Australia Ensemble Prediction System Extreme forecast index (Interactive chart) Global EFI all parameters (Interactive chart) Day: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Interactive Point: Global, Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Africa, Australia 10_days, 15_days, 10_days_wave, 15_days_with_clim, Efi_distribution Ensemble Prediction System Extreme forecast index Standard 10m wind gusts Day: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 10m wind speed Day: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 2m temperature Day: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Precipitations Day: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 1-5, 2-6, 1-10 Ensemble Prediction System Newclusters Cluster scenario 500, 1000 Cluster: 72_96, 120_168, 192_240, 264_360

5 Ensemble Prediction System Probabilities 10m wind gusts probabilities, 252, 264, 276, 288, 300, 312, 324, 336, 348, Africa, Global >15m/s, >25m/s EPS 24h cumulated precipitation probabilities Step: 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, 108, 120, 132, 144, 156, 168, 180, 192, 204, 216, 228, 240, 252, 264, 276, 288, 300, 312, 324, 336, 348, 360 >1, >5, >10, >20 EPS precipitation rate probabilities Days: 5-10, 5-7, 7-10 <0.1, <1, >3, >5 Mean wave period probabilities, 252, 264, 276, 288, 300, 312, 324, 336, 348, 360 >=8s, >=10s, >=12s, >=15s Significant wave height probabilities, 252, 264, 276, 288, 300, 312, 324, 336, 348, 360 >=2m, >=4m, >=6m, >=8m Two meter temperature probabilities, 252, 264, 276, 288, 300, 312, 324, 336, 348, 360 Wind speed probabilities, 252, 264, 276, 288, 300, 312, 324, 336, 348, 360 >10, >15

6 Ensemble Prediction System Probabilities day m wind gusts probabilities >15m/s, >25m/s EPS precipitation rate probabilities <0.1, <1, >3, >5 Mean wave period probabilities >=8s, >=10s, >=12s, >=15s Significant wave height probabilities >=2m, >=4m, >=6m, >=8m Two meter temperature probabilities Ensemble Prediction System Tropical cyclone activity (including genesis) Tropical cyclone activity (including genesis) Range: 24-72, 48-96, , , , , , , , Intensity: Tropical storms, Tropical cyclones, Hurricanes Global, Western North Pacific, South Pacific, Eastern Pacific, Southern Indian Ocean, Australian Coast, Atlantic Ocean, Northern Indian Ocean Ensemble Prediction System Clusters

7 EPS plumes City: Ankara, Athens, Belgrade, Bet Dagan, Bratislava, Bruxelles, Bucarest, Budapest, Copenhagen, De Bilt, Dublin, Exeter, Helsinki, Lisbon, Ljubljana, Luxembourg, Madrid, Norrkoping, Nuuk, Offenbach, Oslo, Prague, Reading, Sofia, Skopje, Reykjavik, Roma, Torshavn, Toulouse, Vienna, Zagreb, Zurich Ensemble Mean and normalised Standard Deviation Extreme forecast index (Interactive chart) Extreme forecast index - Standard Mean Sea Level Pressure and Temperature at 850hPa Step: 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, 108, 120, 132, 144, 156, 168 Newclusters Probabilities

8 Probabilities day Tropical cyclone activity (including genesis) Epsgrams (ECMWF Member States) Any Epsgram in this category Epsgrams (WMO Members) Any Epsgram in this category Tropical cyclones Forecast EPS Lagrangian Meteogram (Obsolete from ) Plumes Map

Strike Probability Map Strike Probability Map (Obsolete from 01-12-2013) Tropical cyclones Observation Cyclone Observation Track Tropical cyclones Verification Deterministic Forecast Fields

9 Strike Probability Map Strike Probability Map (Obsolete from ) Tropical cyclones Observation Cyclone Observation Track Tropical cyclones Verification Deterministic Forecast Fields Verification Deterministic: Analysis, D-1, D-2, D-3, D-4, D-5, D-6, D-7, D-8, D-9, D-10 Verification Comparison with other centres Monthly WMO scores Monthly WMO scores Vw850, Vw250 Monthly WMO scores Z500, Mslp Northern Hem Extratrop, Southern Hem Extratrop Monthly WMO scores Z500, Vw850

10 Verification Comparison with other centres Monthly WMO scores Verification Deterministic forecast time series Lead time ACC reaching thresholds NHem Extratropics, Europe, SHem Extratropics, N Europe, SW Europe, SE Europe, Tropics Verification Wave products comparison against in-situ data and analysis Ocean waves and 10m wind verification Score: Significant wave height, Wind at 10m over sea NHem Extratopics, SHem Extratropics, Tropics, N Atlantic, N Pacific, Eastern trop Pacific, Indian ocean, Mediterranean Mean error, Standard deviation of forecast error, Anomaly correlation Timeseries of statistics for WindSpeed and Waveheight Statistics: Base: All locations combined, North East Atlantic, North East Pacific, Hawaii, Gulf of Mexico, US East Coast, North Sea, Norway and Iceland, Western Mediterranean Sea Significant wave height, 10m wind speed, Peak wave period, Zerocrossing mean wave period Scatter Index, Bias, RMSE, Symmetric Slope Analysis, 12UTC Forecast, 00UTC/12UTC Forecast WindSpeed and Waveheight Annual Scores Statistics: Limited Relative Date: All locations, North Atlantic, North Pacific, Tropics, Gulf of Mexico, North Sea Scatter Index, Bias, RMSE, Symmetric Slope, Correlation Coefficient, Number of observations Significant waveheight and 10m windspeed, Zero-crossing Mean and Peak wave period 0, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8, -9, -10, -11, -12 Verification Comparison with other centres

11 Deterministic forecast time series Wave products comparison against in-situ data and analysis

The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting

The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting Erik Andersson Slide 1 ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 ECMWF s global forecasting system High resolution forecast