ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
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1 ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
2 Today s Outline Feature of the month: 2018 Wildfire Season Update Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review CPC Forecasts and observations for most recent month and season Current Atmosphere and Ice Climate Drivers: SSTs, ENSO Climate Forecast Guidance ENSO Statistical Dynamic NMME & C3S CPC Outlooks August and Aug-Oct 2018 Look at Autumn 2018
3 2018 Wildfire Season So Far
4 2018 Wildfire Season in Context
5 The rest of the wildfire season?
6 Climate Forecast Basics Climate Prediction Center: primary NOAA/NWS forecast responsibility Climate Outlooks Relation to some long term normal (e.g ) Categorical (often three) Probabilistic Traditional Elements Temperature: centered around average Precipitation: centered around median (can significantly differ from the normal, which by convention is the mean) Chances of this box? Chances of this box? Chances of this box?
7 June 2018 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +09 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Mid-Month Outlook Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision
8 June 2018 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +14 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Mid-Month Outlook Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision
9 Apr-May-Jun 2018 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +53 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision
10 Apr-May-Jun 2018 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +06 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision
11 Arctic Wide Sea Ice Through July, 2018 Red Line: 2016 Blue line: 2017 Orange line: 2018
12 Arctic Sea Ice Volume & Thickness End of June Arctic sea ice volume: typical for past 10 years End of June thickness: greater than last year most areas except lower Atlantic and Laptev Sea PIOMAS/U. a Sources: Data from U. Wa./PIOMAS data Graphics by Z. Labe, UC Irvine
13 Mid-July Sea Ice Comparison July 18, 2018 July 18, 2017
14 Sea Ice Near Alaska As of July 18 th
15 Global SST Anomalies June PDO: Near to above normal equatorial Pacific except near South America
16 Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly Heat Content Anomaly ( C) in the upper 300m Source: CPC
17 Tropical Pacific
18 Tropical Pacific SSTs & Atmosphere More convection Less convection OISSTv2 Weekly climo Trade winds near normal
19 Time Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Oceanic Kelvin Waves
20 Guidance ENSO Models Expert Evaluation Statistical Trends in the Past 15 Years Correlations SST Anomalies Oceanic Correlation (PDO) Dynamic SST Anomalies Global Temp and Pcpn Anomalies
21 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts: Models Degrees C Warming rest of the summer, strong consensus for El Niño autumn/winter
22 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts: Experts ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch ENSO neutral favored through summer El Niño likely for autumn/winter
23 Trends August Compared to =Below normal 34-66=Near normal =Above normal Temps Aug-Oct Pcpn
24 Constructed Analogs based on Global SSTs Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
25 Dynamic Model Forecasts Extratropical SSTs Alaska regional Sea Ice Temp and Pcpn Anomalies
26 NMME Aug-Oct 2018 SST Departures from Normal Forecast Skill High skill Not much of a PDO pattern
27 Sea Ice Summer Melt-out Outlook CPC Experimental Forecast
28 Sea Ice Autumn Freeze-up Outlook CPC Experimental Forecast
29 August 2018 Temp Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep ( C) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages
30 August 2018 Pcpn Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep (mm/day) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages
31 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for August 2018 Forecast from: May June July
32 Aug-Sep-Oct 2018 Temp Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep ( C) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages
33 Aug-Sep-Oct 2018 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep (mm/day) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages
34 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for Aug-Sep-Oct 2018 Forecast from: May June July
35 NMME Skill for August & Aug-Sep-Oct Temp Pcpn
36 C3S Multi-Model Ensemble for ASO 2018 Average Temperature Category Probabilities Total Precipitation
37 Aug-Sep-Oct 2018 Outlook from June
38 And the Answer Is
39 CPC August 2018 Outlook 65% 30% 05% 45% 22% 37% 30% 37% 45% 30% 55% 22% 12% Above% Normal% Below%
40 CPC Aug-Sep-Oct 2018 Outlook 65% 30% 05% 65% 30% 05% 45% 22% 45% 55% 12% 37% 30% 22% 37% 30% 30% 37% Above% Normal% Below%
41 Look Ahead: Fall % 30% 05% 45% 22% 37% 30% 55% 12% 45% 22% Above% Normal% Below%
42 Climate Forecast Links CPC Monthly CPC Seasonal NMME ENSO at CPC (including weekly briefing) enso.shtml ENSO at IRI
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