ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy

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1 ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy

2 Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review CPC Forecasts and observations for most recent month and season Current Atmosphere and Ice Climate Drivers: SSTs, ENSO Climate Forecast Guidance ENSO Statistical Dynamic NMME & C3S CPC Outlooks December and Dec-Feb First look ahead at Spring 2019

3 Current Southeast Drought Status Moderate to severe drought continues Primary impact to hydropower production Drought Monitor November 06, 2018 D0 D2 D1

4 Measures of Southeast Drought 1 st half of November rainfall has been near normal

5 Climate Forecast Basics Climate Prediction Center: primary NOAA/NWS forecast responsibility Climate Outlooks Relation to some long term normal (e.g ) Categorical (often three) Probabilistic Traditional Elements Temperature: centered around average Precipitation: centered around median (can significantly differ from the normal, which by convention is the mean) Chances of this box? Chances of this box? Chances of this box?

6 Warmest October of record (exceeded 2013) Incredibly late first freeze Very low snow much of mainland

7 October 2018 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +100 Mid-Month Outlook Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary NOAA/NWS data subject to revision

8 October 2018 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +29 Mid-Month Outlook Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary NOAA/NWS data subject to revision

9 Aug-Sep-Oct 2018 Temperature Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +91 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary NOAA/NWS data subject to revision

10 Aug-Sep-Oct 2018 Precipitation Anomalies Non-EC Skill Score: +39 Best possible: +100 No skill: 0 Worst possible: -50 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary NOAA/NWS data subject to revision

11 Current SST Departures from Normal From OI SSTv2 Data Source: NOAA/PSD/ESRL

12 Arctic Wide Sea Ice Through November 14, 2018 Red Line: 2016 Blue line: 2017 Orange line: 2018

13 Arctic Sea Ice Volume & Thickness End of October Arctic sea ice volume: typical for past 10 years End of October thickness: below normal most everywhere PIOMAS/U. a Sources: Data from U. Wa./PIOMAS data Graphics by Z. Labe, UC Irvine

14 Mid-November Sea Ice Comparison November 14, 2018 November 14, 2017

15 Sea Ice Near Alaska

16 Global SST Anomalies Sept PDO: Mostly above normal equatorial Pacific

17 Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly Heat Content Anomaly ( C) in the upper 300m Source: CPC

18 Tropical Pacific

19 Tropical Pacific SSTs & Atmosphere More convection Less convection OISSTv2 Weekly climo Trade winds near normal

20 Time Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Oceanic Kelvin Waves

21 Guidance ENSO Models Expert Evaluation Statistical Trends in the Past 15 Years Correlations SST Anomalies Oceanic Correlation (PDO) Dynamic SST Anomalies Global Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

22 NMME Niño 3.4 Forecasts Strong consensus for El Niño winter, decreasing spring/summer

23 CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts: Experts ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Outlook only slightly little changed: El Niño likely for winter

24 Trends December Compared to =Below normal 34-66=Near normal =Above normal Temps Dec-Feb Pcpn

25 Constructed Analogs based on Global SSTs Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook

26 Past El Niño Winters

27 Dynamic Model Forecasts Extratropical SSTs Alaska regional Sea Ice Temp and Pcpn Anomalies

28 NMME Dec-Feb SST Departures from Normal Forecast Skill High skill Not much of a PDO pattern

29 Sea Ice Autumn Freeze-up Outlook

30 December 2018 Temp Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep ( C) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

31 December 2018 Pcpn Anomaly Outlooks Avg Dep (mm/day) 3-Category Probabilities Calibrated 3-Category Probs Member Averages

32 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for December 2018 Forecast from: September October November

33 Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep ( C) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

34 Dec-Jan-Feb Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts Avg Dep (mm/day) Category Probs Calibrated Category Probs Member Averages

35 Calibrated Probability Forecasts for Dec-Jan-Feb Forecast from: July August September

36 NMME Skill for December & Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Pcpn

37 C3S Multi-Model Ensemble for DJF Average Temperature Category Probabilities Total Precipitation

38 October s Dec-Feb Outlook 45% 22% 37% 30% 55% 12% 45% 22% Above% Normal% Below%

39 And the Answer Is

40 CPC December 2018 Outlook 75% 22% 03% 37% 30% 37% 30% 65% 30% 05% 45% 22% 55% 12% Above% Normal% Below%

41 CPC Dec-Jan-Feb Outlook 45% 22% 55% 12% 65% 30% 05% 45% 22% 37% 30% 45% 22% Above% Normal% Below%

42 Look Ahead: Spring % 22% 55% 12% Above% Normal% Below%

43 Climate Links ACCAP Climate and Weather Highlights CPC Monthly CPC Seasonal ENSO at CPC (including weekly briefing) tml ENSO at IRI

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