High-latitude influence on mid-latitude weather and climate
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1 High-latitude influence on mid-latitude weather and climate Thomas Jung, Marta Anna Kasper, Tido Semmler, Soumia Serrar and Lukrecia Stulic Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Germany
2 Background
3 Background
4 Background Synop, AIREP, DRIBU, TEMP and PILOT Polar data coverage of conventional observations in the ECMWF operational analysis on 1 January 2012 P. Bauer (ECMWF)
5 Atmospheric response to reduced sea ice thickness Semmler et al. (2012), Clim. Dyn. Semmler et al. (2014), Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted
6 Sensitivity experiment Setup ECMWF model 10 K T sfc perturbation AMIP-style integrations Weather and seasonal forecasts
7 Simulated Z500 response L H H
8 Colder winters? H
9 Coupled model experiments Coupled model ECHAM6-FESOM A total of months experiments Unperturbed control (long run) Reduced Arctic sea ice thickness by 80% on 1 June
10 Surface temperature response in DJF
11 Fast atmospheric response
12 Atmospheric temperature response 6-hrs D+1 D+2 D+1-D+5 D+6-D+10 D+11-D+15
13 Mean T-tendency response (925 hpa) 6 hrs D+1 D+1-D+5 Vertical diffusion Radiation Dynamics K/day
14 Synoptic Z500 activity Control D+1-D+5 D+6-D+10 D+11-D+15
15 SLP response 6-hrs D+1 D+2 D+1-D+5 D+6-D+10 D+11-D+15 D+31-D+90
16 Arctic influence on mid-latitude subseasonal prediction Jung et al. (2014), Geophys. Res. Lett.
17 The relaxation method Take an atmospheric model: Add a relaxation term that pulls the model towards some reference field: Make λ dependent on latitude, longitude and height (localization) Choose analysis or reanalysis data as reference fields Method: Pull the model towards observations in certain regions and study the impact on remote regions!
18 Polar relaxation: Mask
19 Polar relaxation: Mask
20 Experimental setup ECMWF model T L 159L60 (32r1) day forecasts (15 th of Nov, Dec, Jan and Feb; 1980/ /01) Initial and boundary conditions from ERA-40 Relaxation towards ERA-40 Persisted SST and sea ice Control, tropical relaxation and polar relaxation
21 Arctic relaxation Day 1 Day 5 Day 6 Day 10 Day 11 Day 30 Day 11 Day 30
22 Flow-dependence: Asia
23 Conclusions Observations: Strong link implied Arctic sea ice decline and simultaneous increase in the frequency of occurrence of cold European and North American winters Underlying mechanisms (causality) not really understood Models: Consistent model response is found over North America and especially Eurasia Main pathways supported through NWP Simulated response is small-ish Are models sufficiently responsive? Sea ice decline leads to a reduced warming over Europe Prediction: Improved polar prediction capabilities lead to increased prediction skill over NH continents (especially winter)
24 The dynamics of recent winters
25 Experimental setup T L 95L60 (32r1) Atmosphere-only with observed SST and sea ice Lagged ensemble (17 members) with and without relaxation started in the middle of November 2005 Calibration runs with and without relaxation ( )
26 Z500 anomalies: DJF 2005/06 Jung et al. (2011), Mon. Wea. Rev.
27 Z50 anomalies: DJF 2005/06 Jung et al. (2011), Mon Wea Rev
28 Z500 anomalies: DJF 2009/10 Jung et al. (2011), Geophys. Res Lett.
29 Conclusions Observations: Strong link implied Arctic sea ice decline and simultaneous increase in the frequency of occurrence of cold European and North American winters Underlying mechanisms not really understood Models: Consistent model response is found over North America, Eastern Europe and Asia Simulated response is small-ish Sea ice decline leads to a reduced warming over Europe Models not sufficiently responsive? Sea ice of secondary importance for recent winters 2005/06 and 2009/10? Postulated influence of Arctic sea ice on mid-latitude climate (cool winters) is not new
30 Experimental setup T L 159L60 (36r1) ECMWF monthly forecasting systems (VarEPS) Forecasts started on 1 November Ensemble members Control integrations Various experiments Hindcast for each of the configurations ensemble members
31 Sensitivity experiments: D+18-D+32 Verifying analysis Control Changed BCs
32 Mean European winter climate Semmler et al. (2012), Clim. Dyn.
33 Ensemble mean anomalies: Polar Z50
34 Arctic relaxation: Day 7-9 DJF MAM JJA SON
35 Observational studies Francis and Vavrus (2012), Geophys. Res. Lett.
36 Observational studies Francis and Vavrus (2012), Geophys. Res. Lett.
37 Numerical studies
38 Earlier numerical studies Z500 Response T sfc Response Royer et al. (1990), Clim. Dyn.
39 Atmospheric response in DJF Sea level pressure 500 hpa geopotential
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