2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care

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1 2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care

2 Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days 3-10). Provide long-range temperature forecasts (next season, current year, and next year) for ERCOT s Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) Verify accuracy compared to vendor forecasts and computer models Communications Meet daily with system operators to provide weather forecast for the upcoming week. Produce 7-day weather outlook, which appears on ERCOT.com Weather Consulting/Other Monitor drought and reservoir conditions and provide forecast updates Monitor hurricane (and other extreme weather) developments and provide forecast updates Monitor geomagnetic disturbance events and provide situational alerts Looking Ahead Provide real-time weather support to system operators Renewable energy (solar, wind) support 2

3 What s in Store this Summer? Above-normal temperatures, but not as hot as 2011 Continuing drought Normal to below-normal Gulf hurricane season 3

4 Temperature Outlook

5 Summer Temperatures th hottest, th hottest, th hottest, th hottest, st hottest, th hottest, 81.4 (POR 1895-current, Jun-Sep; all of Texas) 5

6 ERCOT Summer Temperature Forecast Best opportunity for extreme above-normal temperatures will be over West and Far West zones. The Coast zone (including Houston) shows a lean toward a milder summer. This milder look could build farther west. June and July show more potential for above normal temperatures than August and September. 6

7 Primary Variables Used to Build the Summer Forecast Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) negative (cool) episode Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) positive (warm) episode 200mb anomaly pattern (Jet Stream) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Neutral phase Drought many similarities with 1950s Winter temperature pattern Winter precipitation pattern 7

8 All indicators, by month June Hotter than normal Junes have been ongoing since June temperatures July temperatures June precipitation July precipitation July Composite indicates fewer above-normal temperatures. 2011, 2012 both above-normal temperatures. More wet opportunities north and west. 8

9 All indicators, by month August temperatures August precipitation August hotter than normal Biggest possibility for cooler temperatures and more rain (Eastern third to half of state) September hotter than normal. Possibly cooler in Coastal region. September temperatures September precipitation 9

10 A cool spring does not necessarily equate to a mild summer Spring Summer 10

11 Why not a repeat of 2011? 2011 Extremely low rainfall in months prior to summer Precipitation: Jan.-Feb Precipitation: Jan.-Feb More rainfall especially East and Central Precipitation: March-May 2011 Precipitation: March-May

12 Precipitation Outlook And Drought Impacts

13 Summer Precipitation th driest, th driest, th driest, th driest, st driest, th driest, (POR 1895-current, Jun-Sep; all of Texas) 13

14 ERCOT Summer Precipitation Forecast Current conditions support a long-term drought with strong similarities to the 1950s Drought of Record. 14

15 Precipitation Anomaly, Past 90 Days 15

16 Drought Compared to One Year Ago (2012) 16

17 Drought Compared to Two Years Ago (2011) 17

18 Comparing the Forecast with Current Drought Drought Monitor as of May 28 18

19 Hurricane Forecast 2013 Season Atlantic Basin, with emphasis on Texas and the Gulf of Mexico

20 Hurricane Info and Climatology Storm Names: Saffir-Simpson Scale: Average Hurricane Season: 11.3 Named Storms 6.2 Hurricanes 2.3 Major Hurricanes 20

21 ERCOT Hurricane Forecast Total Named Storms: 10 Total Hurricanes: 5 Major Hurricanes: 2 Named Storms in Gulf: 1-3 Named Storms in Western Gulf: 0-1 Hurricane in Gulf: 1 Major Hurricane in Gulf: 0-1 Named Storms with Texas Landfall: 0 or 1 Hurricanes with Texas Landfall: 0 or 1 21

22 El Nino-Southern Oscillation s Role in Hurricane Forecasting ENSO is a strong factor in determining the Hurricane season (number and intensities). At this point, ENSO is neutral and forecast to remain neutral into the autumn. 22

23 1956 Hurricane Season (Sample year used to build forecast) Total Storms: 8 Total Hurricanes: 4 Total Major Hurricanes: 2 Total Storms in Gulf: 4 Hurricanes in Gulf: 1 T.S. or Hurricane with Texas Landfall: none ENSO: La Niña PDO: negative 23

24 Atlantic Basin (including Gulf of Mexico) Sea Surface Temps April May 24

25 Power outlook Summer 2013 on the ERCOT Grid

26 Summer 2013 power outlook Summer 2013 Forecasted Season Peak Load Extreme Load/ Typical Generation Outages Extreme Load/ Extreme Generation Outages Total Resources 74,438 Peak Demand 68,383 Uses of Reserve Capacity 3,109 5,638 7,329 Capacity Available for Operating Reserves* (1-2-3) 2, ,274 Reserves expected to be tight but adequate Calls for energy conservation are likely on the hottest days/weeks Rotating outages unlikely unless conditions similar to 2011 return Reserves expected to increase in summer

27 Q&A Questions? 27

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