Weather Update. Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018

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1 Weather Update Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018

2 Table of contents Current conditions Temperatures Precipitation El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecasts Short term forecasts and the Seasonal forecasts Page 2 March-28-18

3 Current conditions Temperatures Precipitation Page 3 March-28-18

4 Temperatures Arctic ridges of high pressure formed and reformed over the Canadian Prairies this fall and winter seasons Leading to long stretches of below-normal temperatures across the province, especially in November, December and February. Page 4 March-28-18

5 Monthly Temperature anomalies, September 2017 February 2018 September October November December January February Page 5 March-28-18

6 Page 6 March-28-18

7 Page 7 March-28-18

8 Page 8 March-28-18

9 Soil temperatures Frost has reached down to 1.5 m below the surface in some locations. Page 9 March-28-18

10 Soil temperatures Depth (cm) March 2018 WZE Carberry WNK Carman M XMD Morden M WXB Roblin M WOO McCreary XWG Winnipeg The soil temperature network is a legacy network which is unsupported data cannot be validated nor QA/QC d. Page 10 March-28-18

11 Soil temperatures ctive-map-en.html t-data-en.html#manitoba Page 11 March-28-18

12 Page 12 March-28-18

13 Page 13 March-28-18

14 Page 14 March-28-18

15 Page 15 March-28-18

16 NWS Frost depth and snow depth map (inches) March 7, in = cm in = cm in = cm Page 16 March-28-18

17 Page 17 March-28-18

18 Precipitation for the Agricultural Year Before March 4, 2018 Near normal precipitation for the southeastern corner of Eastman and areas from Flin Flon, The Pas, Norway House, Thompson, and Lake Winnipeg north basin; Otherwise dry to very dry in the rest of Manitoba and the Red River basin south of the border; Also very little in southeastern Saskatchewan; Areas along the Foothills and parts of southern and central Alberta have received well over normal amounts of precipitation. Page 18 March-28-18

19 Monthly % of normal precipitation amounts, September 2017 February 2018 September October November December January February Page 19 March-28-18

20 Page 20 March-28-18

21 Precipitation: Sept 1 Feb 27 Page 21 March-28-18

22 % normal: September 1- February 27 Page 22 March-28-18

23 Precipitation: Oct to Feb Page 23 March-28-18

24 % of normal: Oct to Feb Page 24 March-28-18

25 Page 25 March-28-18

26 Page 26 March-28-18

27 Precipitation continued The Alberta low and Colorado low that hit the Prairies from March increased the % of normal precipitation since September 1 by 15% up to 25% in some locations in Saskatchewan and Manitoba as well as the Red River basin in the United States. Page 27 March-28-18

28 Page 28 March-28-18

29 % normal: September 1- February 27 Page 30 March-28-18

30 % normal: September 1- March 8 Page 31 March-28-18

31 % of normal: Oct to Feb Page 33 March-28-18

32 % of normal: October to March Page 34 March-28-18

33 And now onto forecasts! ENSO Forecasts Short Term Seasonal forecasts Page 35 March-28-18

34 El Niño Southern Oscillation Reported on March 5, 2018 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory La Niña conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season).* *Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here. Page 36 March-28-18

35 Page 38 March-28-18

36 El Niño Southern Oscillation CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook Updated: February 8, 2018 A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during March-May). Thereafter, ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through fall Page 39 March-28-18

37 El Niño Southern Oscillation IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook The majority of models predict La Niña to persist into Northern Hemisphere spring 2018, with a return to ENSOneutral by summer Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated February 19, 2018). Page 40 March-28-18

38 Page 41 March-28-18

39 Page 49 March-28-18

40 Short term forecasts North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) over the next two weeks suggests: Wind chills below -40 remains in the far north of the province Slight possibility of Colorado lows affecting the southeastern corner of the province Strong winds over Hudson Bay and possibly over the Manitoba Lakes Page 50 March-28-18

41 Wind chill colder than -40 From evening March 11 to evening March 27, 2018 Page 51 March-28-18

42 Probability of precipitation amounts > 25 mm Week 1 From evening March 11 to evening March 19, 2018 Page 52 March-28-18

43 Probability of precipitation amounts > 25 mm Week 2 From evening March 19 to evening March 27, 2018 Page 53 March-28-18

44 Probability of sustained winds > 50 km/h Week 1 From evening March 11 to evening March 19, 2018 Page 54 March-28-18

45 Probability of sustained winds > 50 km/h Week 2 From evening March 19 to evening March 27, 2018 Page 55 March-28-18

46 Temperature trends Week 2 From evening March 19 to evening March 27, 2018 Page 56 March-28-18

47 Seasonal Forecasts March-April-May 2018 Official ECCC forecast issued February 28, 2018; IRI Columbia forecasts issued February 1, 2018; Official NWS forecast issued February 15, Disagreement between forecasts: ECCC forecast calls for above-normal temperatures in Manitoba NWS border area has no trend. ECCC has signal for above-normal amounts in AB/SK while NWS calls for above-normal amounts across border with Prairies. Page 57 March-28-18

48 Page 58 March-28-18

49 Page 59 March-28-18

50 Precipitation normals ( ) for March-April-May Location Page 60 March MAM normals (mm) Red River Basin Interlake- Dauphin Eastman-Winnipeg River Assiniboine-Souris Basins Saskatchewan River Basin North Saskatchewan South Saskatchewan

51 Thank you! Questions? Page 61 March-28-18

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