Variability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean

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1 Variability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean Ming Feng, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research Arne Biastoch, Claus Böning, Leibniz-Institut für Meeresforschung Nick Caputi, Department of Fisheries, Western Australia Gary Meyers, University of Tasmania

2 Regional Currents in the southeast Indian Ocean ITF Indonesian Throughflow SEC South Equatorial Current SJC South Java Current EGC Eastern Gyral Current LC Leeuwin Current

3 Correlation between SOI and altimeter sea level anomalies

4 Relationship between rock lobster larvae (Puerulus) settlement and sea surface temperature Puerulus Jurien - Temperature (Feb - Apr) (Rain South Oct - Nov) 300 Puerulus (68) 96(68) 84(106) 95(110) 99(89) 85(49) 89(86) 01(47) 88(63) 04(57) 90(54) 03(44) 94(29) 83(55) 86(41) 91(86) 97(47) 98(58) 87(54) 92(66) 82(38) 93(38) 02(49) 06(35) 00(27) Temperature (Feb - Apr)

5 40 o S 100 o E 105 o E 110 o E 115 o E 120 o E 125 o E 130 o E 40 o S 100 o E 105 o E 110 o E 115 o E 120 o E 125 o E 130 o E Bimonthly trend in ERSST 15 o S 20 o S 25 o S Jan Feb 15 o S 20 o S 25 o S Mar Apr 30 o S 30 o S 35 o S 35 o S 40 o S 100 o E 105 o E 110 o E 115 o E 120 o E 125 o E 130 o E o C/year 40 o S 100 o E 105 o E 110 o E 115 o E 120 o E 125 o E 130 o E 15 o S May Jun o S Jul Aug 20 o S 20 o S 25 o S 25 o S 30 o S 30 o S 35 o S o S 40 o S 100 o E 105 o E 110 o E 115 o E 120 o E 125 o E 130 o E 40 o S 100 o E 105 o E 110 o E 115 o E 120 o E 125 o E 130 o E 15 o S Sep Oct 15 o S Nov Dec 20 o S 0 20 o S 25 o S 25 o S 30 o S 30 o S 35 o S 35 o S

6 Temperature trends on the shelf since Rate of change of water temperature Puerulus sites (Dongara/Jurien) Commercial monitoring 0-20 fm Dongara/Jurien Commercial monitoring 0-20 fm Lancelin/Fremantle Rate of Change ( o C/ year) Jan Feb Mar April May June July August September October November December

7 ORCA025 model - Global ¼ degree horizontal resolution - 6 m vertical resolution near surface, 20 layers in the upper 500 m - Surface forcing based on bulk forcing methodology (Large and Yeager 2004) according to CORE protocol - CORE: Co-ordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments - Monthly output during

8 Monthly heat balance during Dominantly balanced by LC advection and surface heat loss Total advection W Net heat flux Net surface heat flux 60 Change in heat storage Total advection Residual 70 J F M A M J J A S O N D

9 Mean air-sea heat flux Correlation of heat flux anomaly with SOI On interannual time scale, variation of heat balance is dominated by the advection and air-sea flux

10 A sudden change in the climate of tropical Pacific during mid-1970s La Niña (strong Leeuwin Current) Standardized Southern Oscillation Index El Niño (weak LC) There are more frequent and stronger El Niño events after the mid- 1970s

11 Linear Trends of the Thermocline (14 C isotherm) Depths Shallow thermocline anomalies are transmitted into the East Indian Ocean Reduction of meridional pressure gradient, which is the driving force of the Leeuwin Current Thermocline becomes shallower in the western Pacific

12 Trends in Fremantle Sea Level during Original data Removing a 1.54 mm/year trend

13 Southward ORCA025 Modelled volume transport of the Leeuwin Current during (off Perth)

14 Difference in next heat flux vs in ORCA 025

15 Differences in heat balance vs Difference in surface flux, vs Net surface heat flux W m J F M A M J J A S O N D 15 Difference in total advection, vs Total advection W m J F M A M J J A S O N D

16 Summary Enhanced surface warming trend off lower west coast of WA, with the largest warming trend occurring during the austral winter The heat budget in the Leeuwin Current is mainly balanced by the two dominant terms: the Leeuwin advection and air-sea heat loss Reduction of the Leeuwin Current transport, as derived from the ORCA025 model simulation, is responsible for the seasonal changes in the warming trend Predict the future changes in the ENSO characteristics is crucial to downscale the climate change impact in the region

17 Ocean Forecast Australia Model (OFAM) domain (10 km resolution around Australia)

18 Volume transport of the Leeuwin Current from ORCA025 during x

19 Potential impact: increased temperature Shortened larval duration and increased survival rate? O Connor, 2007

20 CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research Western Australian Marine Science Institution Ming Feng Thank you

21 Changes in surface wind fields 20 o N 10 o N 0 o 10 o S 20 o S 30 o S 10 m/s 40 o S 50 o S 40 o E 60 o E 80 o E 100 o E 120 o E 140 o E 160 o E 180 o W 160 o W 140 o W 120 o W 100 o W 80 o W 20 o N 10 o N 0 o 10 o S 20 o S 30 o S 2 m/s 40 o S 50 o S 40 o E 60 o E 80 o E 100 o E 120 o E 140 o E 160 o E 180 o W 160 o W 140 o W 120 o W 100 o W 80 o W

22 ORCA025 model - Global ¼ degree horizontal resolution - 6 m vertical resolution near surface, 20 layers in the upper 500 m - Surface forcing based on bulk forcing methodology (Large and Yeager 2004) according to CORE protocol - CORE: Co-ordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments - Monthly output during

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24 Correlation of Altimeter Sea Level and SOI

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