JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018

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1 JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 Atsushi Minami Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

2 Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System Current oceanic condition JMA s seasonal ensemble prediction Probabilistic Forecast Summary

3 Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System Current oceanic condition JMA s seasonal ensemble prediction Probabilistic Forecast Summary

4 Specification of Seasonal EPS Model Resolution Forecast range Initial conditions Boundary conditions Ensemble method Ensemble size Freq. of product creation Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric General Circulation Model named JMA/MRI-CSP2 (Last upgrade: June 2015) [Atmosphere] H: TL159 (~110 km), V: L60 (up to 0.1hPa) [Ocean] H:1.0 º lon., º lat. (with Tri-polar grid), V: L52+BBL Up to 7 months [Atmosphere] JRA-55 (JMA Climate Data Assimilation System) [Ocean] MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 (Ocean Data Assimilation) [Land] JRA-55 land analysis SST: Predicted, Sea ice: Sea-ice model Combination of Breeding of Growing Modes (BGM) and Lagged Average Forecast (LAF), Stochastic Physics Scheme 51 (13 BGMs & 4 initial days with 5-day LAF) Once a month (around 20th of every month) In this presentation, Initial month: April 2018 Forecast period: JJAS (JJA) 2018 Base period: average Some products such as verification, index, probability are JJA.

5 Prediction Skill of JMA Seasonal EPS Anomaly Correlation of SST, temp. and prep. for JJA (Initial Month: April) SST Hindcast experiments for 30 years ( ) Precipitation 2m Temperature

6 Prediction Skill of Seasonal EPS Area-averaged precipitation for JJA (Initial month: April) South Asia Hindcast experiments for 30 years ( ) Precipitation Anomaly [mm/day] 30N 20N 10N South Asia CI2 DL 5N 5S 60E 90E 115E 140E 170E 170W [mm/day] South Asia r=0.34 CI2 r=0.50 DL r=0.82 analysis [mm/day] analysis analysis

7 Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System Current oceanic condition JMA s seasonal ensemble prediction Probabilistic Forecast Summary

8 Monthly Mean SST Anomalies (March 2018) Pacific SSTs are below normal from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific, and above normal in the western equatorial Pacific. It is considered that La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific. Indian Ocean SSTs are above normal in the northern Indian Ocean including Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal and below normal in the latitudinal band 30S-Eq.

9 SST Indices SST indices are defined as deviations from the climatological mean based on a sliding 30-year period, removing long-term trend. March 2018 NINO o C NINO.WEST o C IOBW o C N 15N NINO.WEST IOBW 130E 20S 40E 100E 5N 5S NINO.3 El Niño Neutral La Niña

10 Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System Current oceanic condition JMA s seasonal ensemble prediction Probabilistic Forecast Summary

11 SST and OHC for JJAS 2018 Initial Month: April 2018 Ensemble mean Time-longitude cross section along the EQ (April-October) SST anomalies Indian Ocean Pacific Atlantic Ocean Heat Content anomalies Indian Ocean Pacific Atlantic JJAS move eastward [ o C] [ o C] anomaly SST for JJAS 2018 [ o C] For subsurface water, warm Kelvin waves are predicted to propagate eastward and weaken the belownormal SSTs in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Accordingly, current La Niña conditions will end in boreal spring and it is likely that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist during boreal summer.

12 Predicted Area-averaged SSTs for JJAS 2018 Initial Month: April N 15N NINO.WEST IOBW 130E 20S 40E 100E 5N 5S NINO.3 SST indices are defined as deviations from the climatological mean based on a sliding 30-year period, removing long-term trend. IOBW JJAS JJAS JJAS NINO.WEST NINO.3 IOBW is predicted to be near or below normal. NINO.WEST is predicted to be near normal. NINO.3 is predicted to be near normal. Prediction Skill for JJA (Anomaly Correlation, hindcast) IOBW NINO.WEST NINO.3 ACC=0.60 ACC=0.62 ACC=0.79

13 Precipitation and 200hPa Velocity Potential for JJAS 2018 Initial Month: April 2018 Ensemble mean Precipitation Velocity potential at 200hPa C D Anomaly (shaded) [mm/day] Anomaly (shaded) [10 6 m 2 /s] Negative (dry) anomalies are predicted over the sea east of New Guinea in association with (decaying) La Niña conditions. Positive (wet) anomalies are predicted in the latitudinal band 10-20N from the central to eastern Pacific in association with abovenormal SSTs. Weak positive anomalies are also predicted over south Asian region. Positive (convergent) anomalies are predicted over sea east of New Guinea in association with below-normal precipitation. Negative (divergent) anomalies are predicted over the central to eastern Pacific in association with above-normal precipitation.

14 Precipitation over South Asia for JJAS 2018 Initial Month: April 2018 Ensemble mean Jun. Jul. Sep. Aug. JJAS Anomaly (shaded) [mm/day] Precipitation is predicted to be above normal for monsoon onset and near or below normal for offset season in South Asia in association with the ENSO transition. Averagely, precipitation for JJAS is predicted to be slightly above normal in South Asia.

15 Histograms of Area-averaged Precipitation for JJA 2018 Initial Month: April N 20N 10N South Asia CI2 DL 5N 5S 51 ensemble members RAIN (South Asia) 60E-90E, 10N-30N 60E 90E 115E 140E 170E170W RAIN (CI2 Region) 115E-140E, 10N-20N RAIN (DL) 170E-170W, 5S-5N Dry Wet Dry Wet Dry Wet Near or slightly above normal (Large spread) Near normal Below normal Prediction Skill for JJA (Anomaly Correlation, hindcast) ACC=0.34 ACC=0.50 ACC=0.82

16 Temperature over South Asia for JJAS 2018 Initial Month: April 2018 Ensemble mean Anomaly (shaded) [ o C] Temperature is likely to be below normal in south Asia. Above-normal temperatures are predicted for other region in association with global warming.

17 Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System Current oceanic condition JMA s seasonal ensemble prediction Probabilistic Forecast Summary

18 Prediction Skill of Seasonal EPS ROC Area of Precipitation for JJA (Initial month : April) Hindcast experiments for 30 years ( ) Above-normal Near-normal Below-normal All-case

19 Probabilistic Forecast for JJA 2018 Initial Month: April ensemble members Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique based on the 30 years hindcast is used. Masked grids denote insufficient prediction skill (ROC area score < 0.5). Most likely category is above normal in northwestern India and below normal in and around southeastern India.

20 Summary JMA Seasonal EPS predicts as follows: Outlook for Oceanic conditions Current La Niña conditions will end in boreal spring and it is likely that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist during boreal summer. SSTs are predicted to be near normal in the western Pacific and near or below normal in the Indian Ocean. IOD is not likely to occur. Outlook for Monsoon Precipitation and Temperature in South Asia Precipitation is likely to be above normal in monsoon onset season and near or below normal in monsoon offset season in association with the ENSO transition. Averagely, precipitation for JJAS is slightly above normal, but the large uncertainty should be taken into consideration. (Temperature for JJAS is predicted to be below normal especially over India.)

21 EUROSIP Forecast for JJA 2018 Initial Month: March baseline JJA A most likely category of temperature is near normal in South Asia. A most likely category of precipitation is near or above normal in South Asia. Near Normal conditions are predicted but its spread is large. JMA joined a member of EUROSIP public products since March Copyright European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts EUROSIP public products are referenceable in the following website.

22 References The official products of JMA s seasonal EPS are available in the following website: GPC Tokyo El Nino Outlook Ensemble mean 3-month forecast Ensemble mean warm and cold-season forecast Probabilistic 3-month forecast Probabilistic warm and cold-season forecast

23 Thank you for your attention!

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