Current Details from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Transcription

1 Current Details from the Joint Warning Center COORDINATES: 19.6 north, east (previous location: 17.9 north, east) LOCATION: 737 kilometers (458 miles) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan MOVEMENT: west-northwest at 22 kph (14 mph) (previous: west-northwest at 26 kph (16 mph)) WINDS: 295 kph (185 mph) with gusts to 360 kph (225 mph) (previous: 210 kph (130 mph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 315 kilometers (195 miles) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 110 kilometers (70 miles) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 898 millibars (previous: 948 millibars) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 5 LANDFALL AND LOSS PROBABILITIES FORECAST LANDFALL LOCATION: Dongshan County, Fujian Province, China FORECAST LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: Thursday morning, local time 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT LOCAL INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: MEDIUM Latest Satellite Picture Source: University of Wisconsin (CIMSS) Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Discussion Meranti, located approximately 737 kilometers (458 miles) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, is currently tracking west-northwest at 22 kph (14 mph). Animated, high resolution satellite imagery shows another phase of cooling cloud tops depicting strengthening within the core of the cyclone surrounding a distinct 15-kilometer (9-mile) wide eye feature. The eye supports the current position with high confidence. The initial intensity has been increased to 295 kph (185 mph) based on the cooling cloud tops and is supported by a continuous increase in satellite-based intensity estimates. Dvorak current intensity estimates also support the increase in initial intensity. Satellite imagery also shows radial outflow due to an upper-level anti-cyclone positioned over the top of the system with low vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) and high oceanic heat content are also very favorable. Super Meranti continues to track toward the west-northwest under the steering influence of a ridge of high pressure located to the north. Through the next three days, Meranti will track generally west-northwestward under the steering influence of the aforementioned high pressure ridge. Very favorable environmental conditions will allow the system to maintain its intensity over the next 12 hours. Afterwards, land interaction with Taiwan and increasing vertical wind shear will begin the weakening phase. Meranti will make landfall along the coast of China on Thursday morning (local time) as a strong typhoon. Forecast model guidance has come into much better agreement with a track that passes just south of Taiwan. At this time, only one model predicts a track clipping the southern tip of Taiwan. In the extended forecast period, Super Meranti will continue tracking over land and is expected to fully dissipate due to land interaction and increased vertical wind shear as it interacts with the midlatitude westerly flow. Forecast model guidance in the extended period diverges greatly due to the rapid weakening of the system. Vertical wind shear is expected to be high at this time. Due to improved model agreement prior to landfall and the stability of the multi-model consensus over the past two cycles, there is now high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. Cat Alert: Super Meranti 2

3 Joint Warning Center Forecast Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the Joint Warning Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Tuesday night after 10:00 PM Central Time (Wednesday 03:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Super Meranti 3

4 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE, Atlantic National Center (NHC) NW Joint Warning Center (JTWC) BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Japan Agency (JMA) SW Fiji Service (FMS) Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) North Indian India Department (IMD) Deep Moderate Intense Very Cat. 5 >140 >160 >260 Super Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cat Alert: Super Meranti 4

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