An Assessment of the Navy's Sea Ice Outlook Predictions for 2014
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1 An Assessment of the Navy's Sea Ice Outlook Predictions for 2014 Pam Posey 1, Rick Allard 1, David Hebert 1, Joe Metzger 1, Ruth Preller 1, Alan Wallcraft 1, Ole Martin Smedstad 2, Michael Phelps 3 and James Williams 4 1 Naval Research Laboratory 2 Vencore Services and Solutions, Inc. 3 Jacobs Technology Inc. Stennis Space Center, MS 4 McGill University - Montreal, Canada October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 1
2 Outline Systems Overview - Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) - Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS 3.1) Observed Ice Extent Sea Ice Outlook Estimates Future Plans October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 2
3 Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) ACNFS consists of 3 components: Ice Model: Community Ice CodE (CICE) Ocean Model: HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) Data assimilation: Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) Declared operational Sept 2013 Runs daily at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) Stennis Space Center, MS ACNFS produces nowcast/7-day forecasts of ice concentration, ice thickness, ice drift, sst, sss and ocean currents Products pushed daily to the U.S. National Ice Center (NIC) and NOAA Grid Resolution ~3.5 km North Pole Dark line is the independent ice edge location from the National Ice Center (NIC). October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 3
4 ACNFS Used in Special Mission Support Nov 2011-Jan 2012: ACNFS products provided guidance for convoy (CG Healy and Russian tanker) to deliver 103 M gallons of fuel to Nome, Alaska OIB plane - Fairbanks March 2013 Provided ACNFS products to assist in 2014 NASA Operation IceBridge pre-flight planning Provided ice forecast products to ONR Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) field work in Beaufort Sea region
5 Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS 3.1) 1/12 global two-way coupled HYCOM-CICE modeling system with data assimilation Transitioned to NAVOCEANO on 26 Sept 2014 Uses HYCOM/CICE/NCODA like ACNFS but with improved HYCOM and NCODA After GOFS 3.1 becomes operational, it will replace ACNFS Added capability of forecasting ice conditions in the southern hemisphere I Ice Concentration Ice Thickness Sea Surface Salinity Sea Surface Temperature 5
6 Minimum 2014 Sea Ice Extent IARC-JAXA 4.88 Mkm 2 Minimum Sea Ice Extent for last 10 years NSIDC 5.02 Mkm 2 Year Minimum (Mkm 2 ) Date Reached Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept 21 October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 6
7 Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Sea Ice Outlook 2014 Community wide summary of expected September Arctic sea ice extent minimum NRL ACNFS and GOFS 3.1 ensemble initialized from a single sea ice analysis: May 1, June 1 and July 1, 2014 Forced by different years of NOGAPS atmospheric forcing ( ) To calculate the ACNFS/GOFS 3.1 minimum September sea ice estimate: - Used all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration - Calculated the daily mean ensemble value - Used minimum September value as estimate October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 7
8 ACNFS GOFS 3.1 Observed 2014 Sept Minimum Mkm 2 October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 8
9 Bias Corrections ACNFS/GOFS 3.1: Models have been run in data assimilative mode ACNFS: July present GOFS 3.1: August present Analysis fields from these data assimilation runs were used to identify ensemble forecast model biases in Sept ice extent. For 2014 Outlook, ACNFS used an averaged bias of -2.0 Mkm 2 ; GOFS 3.1 used 0.4 Mkm 2. GOFS 3.1 bias was calculated over fewer years (3 vs 7) and is less certain October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 9
10 Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Sea Ice Outlook 2014 ACNFS/GOFS 3.1 ensemble September sea ice extent (Mkm 2 ): ACNFS GOFS Dates Ensemble Minimum Ensemble Minimum May 1, ± June 1, ± ± 0.4 July 1, ± ± minimum extent of 5.02 Mkm 2 observed on 17 September. October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 10
11 Summary On average/after bias correction, ACNFS predicted a minimum sea ice extent of 4.2 Mkm 2, while GOFS 3.1 predicted 4.7 versus observed 5.02 Mkm 2 Little difference in ACNFS results regardless of which month ensemble runs were initialized (May, June and July) GOFS 3.1 minimum decreased slightly from June 1 and July 1 simulations October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 11
12 Future Plans Navy is interested in seasonal forecasts for ice covered regions. Investigate methods to improve 3-4 month forecast skill for both ACNFS and GOFS 3.1 Run a data assimilative re-analysis of GOFS 3.1 from 2004 forward Longer control run for GOFS 3.1 will produce a more accurate bias October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 12
13 Thank you! Questions? Questions? October 22-24, rd FAMOS Workshop 13
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