Towards Seamless Sea Ice Drift Forecasting The Sea-Ice Drift Forecast Experiment SIDFEx
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1 Towards Seamless Sea Ice Drift Forecasting The Sea-Ice Drift Forecast Experiment SIDFEx Axel Schweiger, Helge Goessling Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Thomas Krumpen, Marcel Nicolaus, Ruediger Gerdes Ignatius Rigor, Wendy Ermold,, Bob Grumbine, Joe Metzger, Rick Allard, Amy Solomon, Janet Intieri, Laurent Bertino, Maxime Beauchamp, Frank Kauker, and probably many others!
2 Logistics For Research Need for Sea Ice Drift Forecasts Search and Rescue Natural Resource Exploration
3 ONR Marginal Ice Zone Experiment, 2014
4 Floe Size Distribution Development Work: Remote Sensing Zhang et al, 2016, Stern et al. in review
5 Drift Forecast Problem (days): Acquisition of high resolution Satellite Images: Hit or Miss? 10 km Actual Trajectory Planned Trajectory 10 km/day
6 Position Errors: Model vs Climatology Daily summer drift recently 10 Km/day!!!. But forecast increases probability of hitting 10 km target from 60% to 95% with a 1 day lag? 1-Day Errors Climatology Forecast 6 km 12 km 9 days From Schweiger and Zhang, 2015
7 Old Problem: Fram Drift Hypothetical Fram Trajectories using data From Pfirman, Tremblay, and Fowler, 2009 Drift Duration [Years]
8 MOSAIC Drift Guidance pior to Deployment: Can we do better than Climatology? Initial Conditions Forecast skill (0-? Days) Ice/ocean physics Logistics and Science Support during drift: Daily forecasts Experiment planning "Climatological" drift trajectories based on satellite-derived drift fields starting ; Figure by T. Krumpen
9 Questions How well can we forecast future positions (ships, camps, buoys)? What is the time range for maximum skillful forecasts? Where does the skill come from (Wind?, Ice Thickness?) Does the skill depend on season, region? Are all forecast methods equal? Can model-based forecasts beat those based on climatology? Biases? How can we motivate and coordinate research to answer these questions? Answer: SIDFEx. A coordinated community sea ice drift experiment Low bar of entry Modeled after Sea Ice Outlook Practically useful output (Buoys/MOSAIC/?)
10 SIDFEX: Implementation Time Line YOPP Core Phase pre- MOSAiC MOSAiC Drift Phase I) Collect forecasts for 5 + selected IABP buoys, start 1 st June 2017 Phase II) In addition, target points relevant for Polarstern "deployment" position Phase III) During drift, provide forecasts for operational planning support
11 Implementation Forecast methods: completely open! satellite-derived "climatological" forecasts model-based forecasts (e.g. in "SIO models") with and without bias corrections (info to be provided) "free-drift" / empirical methods/combined methods, e.g. blending between short-range (atm. forecasts) and longer-range (climatological) Forecast Mode/Lead Times: Monthly Mode Initial Position: Buoy, last day of month Monthly submission (<10 days after intiial), Range: Days to months Near Real Time Mode Daily+ initial Submission with minimum delay Format single trajectories ensembles of trajectories One file/forecast/ensemble member Automatic submission to DKRZ via script! -
12 SIDFEx IABP Buoy Targets
13 2018 SIDFEx Targets WARM buoys targets for image acquisition
14 Current SIDFEx Participants GroupID MethodID Contact(s) Affiliation(s) active awi001 Satellite Thomas Krumpen AWI (GER) awi003 Ice-Ocean Model (Atm Reanalysis) Frank Kauker AWI (GER) nrl001 Fully Coupled Rick Allard/Joe Metzger NRL (USA) ucl001 Ice-Ocean Model (Atm Reanalysis) François Massonnet UCL (Belgium) uw001 Ice-Ocean Model (Atm Forecast) Axel Schweiger/J Zhang UW (USA) metno001 Ice-Ocean-Model (Atm Forecast) Bertino/Beauchamps/Muller NERSC/MetNo (NO) esrl001 Fully Coupled Regional (GFS at Bndy) Amy Solomon/J. Intrieri NOAA-ESRL planned awi002 driftpersist Helge Goessling AWI awi002 freedriftecmwf Helge Goessling AWI awi002 initclimmerge Helge Goessling AWI ncep001 TBD Robert Grumbine NCEP TBD TBD Steffen Tietsche ECMWF Ecc001? Fred Dupont ECCC NOAA-ESRL and Metno001 are providing near real time, 10-day forecasts since 2018
15 First Results SIDFEx Errors: Buoy ID Ensemble mean error [km] fixed awi001 nrl001 uw001 awi003 ucl001 June Outlook July Outlook August Outlook 1st June 1st July 1st August SIDFEx Errors: Day Buoy Of Year ID (2017) th September x x x x position 1st June position 15th September Ensemble mean error [km] fixed awi001 nrl001 uw001 awi003 ucl001 June Outlook July Outlook August Outlook 1st June 1st July 1st August 15th September x Day Of Year (2017)
16 Short Term Forecast Analysis 2 1 3
17 10 day fc Init: t0 10 day fc : t0+3 Speed Perfect Initial Actual Trajectory Direction
18
19 Tools and Resources Websites main website: (with all the details) IABP subsite with NRT buoy positions: DKRZ Cloud Service with NRT processed SIDFEx forecasts: /SIDFEx_processed/ Sea Ice Outlook: R-library (Helge) formatting/checking forecasts Displaying and Analyzing SIDFEx output Contact
20 Conclusions Infrastructure working! Good participation, more joining Starting with some real world applications (WARM buoy image tracking) Consistently beating Climatology or even Persistance isn t trivial Currently thinking about a paper following 2018 season More data needed!
21 10 day forecast initialized: t0 10 day forecast 10 initialized: day forecast t0+3 days initialized: t0+3 days Initial Initial Actual Trajectory
22 Probability of Target Error by Forecast Hour
23 Results
24 Observed and Simulated MIZ Cluster Drift Background Colors: Observed (CryoSat) and Modeled Ice Thickness
25 2014 MIZMAS forecasts
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