Loitering of the Retrea1ng Sea Ice Edge in the Arc1c Seas
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1 Michael Steele Loitering of the Retrea1ng Sea Ice Edge in the Arc1c Seas Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le Michael Steele & Wendy Ermold Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory Seattle, WA USA Steele, M. & W. Ermold, "Loitering of the retreating sea ice edge in the Arctic Seas," JGR, in press, 2015.
2 How fast does arc(c sea ice retreat? 18 Pan- Arc(c sea ice extent (Mkm 2 ) NSIDC: Nat'l Snow & Ice Data Ctr 0 1 Jan 1 Mar 1 May 1 Jul 1 Sep 1 Nov Average ± 2 standard devia$ons
3 How fast does arc(c sea ice retreat? Pan- Arc(c sea ice extent (Mkm 2 ) "retreat season" slow fast! slow 2015 NSIDC: Nat'l Snow & Ice Data Ctr 0 1 Jan 1 Mar 1 May 1 Jul 1 Sep 1 Nov Average ± 2 standard devia$ons
4 A closer look Daily 15% ice concentration contour = "ice edge" SSM/I-SSMIS (NASA Team algorithm) 180 E 90 W 90 E 0 E 2012 March 13 September 23
5 winter max A closer look Daily 15% ice concentration contour = "ice edge" SSM/I-SSMIS (NASA Team algorithm) summer min 180 E The "SIZ" = Seasonal Ice Zone = winter max to summer min 90 W 90 E 0 E 2012 March 13 September 23
6 A closer look slow "loitering" fast Daily 15% ice concentration contour = "ice edge" SSM/I-SSMIS (NASA Team algorithm) 180 E 90 W 90 E 0 E Other sea ice data sets: AMSR2 (3.25 km PMW) 2012 March 13 September 23 MASIE (NSIDC multi-sensor)
7 Quan(ta(ve analysis...on the 25 km grid Loitering ice edge: 8 km/day* 4 days in a 25 km pixel 2012 *Ave ice speed 8-12 km/day Spreen et al. (GRL, 2011) Olason & Notz (JGR, 2014)
8 Quan(ta(ve analysis...on the 25 km grid Loitering ice edge: 8 km/day* 4 days in a 25 km pixel 2012 *Ave ice speed 8-12 km/day Spreen et al. (GRL, 2011) Olason & Notz (JGR, 2014) T Σ4+ (days) # of days the ice edge loitered in a pixel
9 Quan(ta(ve analysis...on the 25 km grid Loitering ice edge: 8 km/day* 4 days in a 25 km pixel 2012 *Ave ice speed 8-12 km/day Spreen et al. (GRL, 2011) Olason & Notz (JGR, 2014) T Σ4+ (days) # of days the ice edge loitered in a pixel
10 Quan(ta(ve analysis...on the 25 km grid Loitering ice edge: 8 km/day* 4 days in a 25 km pixel 2012 *Ave ice speed 8-12 km/day Spreen et al. (GRL, 2011) Olason & Notz (JGR, 2014) T Σ4+ (days) # of days the ice edge loitered in a pixel
11 Space & Time Scales SSMI/SSMIS N 4+ / ΣN (ΣN 4+ = 5,802) T 4+ (days) T Σ4+ (days) Loitering covers 20-25% of the SIZ 80% of loitering events last 4-7 days...synop1c storms...
12 Where does it loiter? Winter ice warm SST fronts WARM WARM WARM WARM 2012 Mar 13 Sep 23
13 Where does it loiter? Winter ice warm SST fronts WARM WARM Within the SIZ in some places...why? WARM WARM 2012 Mar 13 Sep Mar 13 Sep 23 N. Baffin, E. Beaufort, N. Chukchi, Laptev...
14 Michael Steele Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le Why does it loiter? Winter ice warm SST fronts WARM Early ice retreat ê early SST warming ê loitering Within the SIZ in some places...why? WARM WARM WARM 2012 Mar 13 Sep July Mar 13 Sep 23 ice conc SST ( C) (satellite data: NOAA OI.v2 AVHRR)
15 Michael Steele Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le Why does it loiter? Why early ice retreat here? Steele et al. (JGR, 2015) Winter ice warm SST fronts WARM Early ice retreat ê early SST warming ê loitering Within the SIZ in some places...why? WARM WARM WARM 2012 Mar 13 Sep July Mar 13 Sep 23 ice conc SST ( C) (satellite data: NOAA OI.v2 AVHRR)
16 Why does it loiter? Loitering: wind + warm SST ice ice edge Early ice retreat ê early SST warming ê loitering melt melt melt warm Warm SST = 2.5 C above freezing can melt ~ 35 cm/day 2012 July 8 ice conc SST ( C) (satellite data: NOAA OI.v2 AVHRR)
17 Why does it loiter? Loitering: wind + warm SST ice ice edge melt melt melt warm Warm SST = 2.5 C above freezing can melt ~ 35 cm/day...but how deep does that warm water extend?
18 Ocean observing & loitering The UpTempO buoy program Loitering: wind + warm SST ice ice edge submergence, GPS melt melt melt warm SST thermistors: ± 0.1 C 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 40, 50, 60 m depth pressure: ± 1 dbar 20, 40, 60 m depth Warm SST = 2.5 C above freezing can melt ~ 35 cm/day CT: SBE 37IM 4 m depth...but how deep does that warm water extend?
19 Michael Steele Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le Ocean observing & loitering The UpTempO buoy program Cost: è below $15k submergence, GPS Focus on the pan- Arc$c SIZ Surface isothermal layer: ~10-15 m early summer ~15-20 m late summer Subsurface warm layer forma$on also seen with related WARM buoy (V. Hill talk 9 am) data & info: SST thermistors: ± 0.1 C 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 40, 50, 60 m depth pressure: ± 1 dbar 20, 40, 60 m depth CT: SBE 37IM 4 m depth
20 Laptev Sea (2011) Daily ice edge displacement f( Wind, SST ) (a) NSI Lena Delta SZ Taymyr Peninsula (b) T Σ4+ (days) Loiter, retreat, loiter, retreat,...
21 Laptev Sea (2011) Daily ice edge displacement f( Wind, SST ) Laptev Sea ( ) (a) NSI Lena Delta advance retreat km Daily ice edge displacement (km) (b) SZ Taymyr Peninsula Wind speed (m/s) on - ice è T Σ4+ (days) Loiter, retreat, loiter, retreat,... ç off - ice SST ( C)
22 Daily ice edge displacement f( Wind, SST ) advance retreat 25 km km Daily ice edge displacement (km) Retreat: on- ice wind, f(sst) Wind speed (m/s) on - ice è km 15 km 10 km retreat ç off - ice SST ( C)
23 Daily ice edge displacement f( Wind, SST ) advance retreat Loitering: weak winds strong off- ice winds + warm SST Wind speed (m/s) on - ice è ç off - ice km 0 km km Daily ice edge displacement (km) SST ( C)
24 Daily ice edge displacement f( Wind, SST ) advance retreat Wind speed (m/s) on - ice è km Daily ice edge displacement (km) Advance: off- ice winds + COLD SST ç off - ice SST ( C)
25 Trends A ( x 10 6 km 2 ) A SIZ 0.05 x 10 6 km 2 /year The area of the SIZ A SIZ is increasing Year
26 Trends A ( x 10 6 km 2 ) A SIZ 0.05 x 10 6 km 2 /year The area of the SIZ A SIZ is increasing Year 4 A ( x 10 6 km 2 ) 2 A 4+...but the area of loitering A 4+ is not! Year
27 Why isn't A 4+ increasing? late in the season (August) rapid retreat, 180 E cold SST, off- ice winds è advance, 90 W 90 E not loitering 0 E 2012 March 13 September 23
28 Michael Steele Final Thoughts The retreat season Retreat, "Loitering," Advance More loitering in the future, if retreat starts earlier (warmer SST)? Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le
29 Michael Steele Final Thoughts The retreat season Retreat, "Loitering," Advance More loitering in the future, if retreat starts earlier (warmer SST)? Who cares? Constant retreat rate è constant condi$ons Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le
30 Michael Steele Final Thoughts The retreat season Retreat, "Loitering," Advance More loitering in the future, if retreat starts earlier (warmer SST)? Who cares? Loitering ice edge: high melt increasing stratification suppressed upwelling of nutrients, heat, salt Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le
31 Michael Steele Final Thoughts The retreat season Retreat, "Loitering," Advance More loitering in the future, if retreat starts earlier (warmer SST)? Who cares? Loitering ice edge: high melt increasing stratification suppressed upwelling of nutrients, heat, salt Now it retreats! How does this "left behind" area evolve? What does the rapidly retreating ice edge look like? Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le
32 Michael Steele Final Thoughts Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le The retreat season Retreat, "Loitering," Advance More loitering in the future, if retreat starts earlier (warmer SST)? Who cares? Observing systems The SIZ is crucial! Loitering ice edge: The SIZ is big... high melt...cheap ice/oc'n buoys increasing stratification + remote sensing suppressed upwelling of nutrients, heat, salt Now it retreats! How does this "left behind" area evolve? What does the rapidly retreating ice edge look like?
33 Michael Steele Final Thoughts Arc$c Obs Mtg: Sea$le The retreat season Retreat, "Loitering," Advance More loitering in the future, if retreat starts earlier (warmer SST)? Who cares? Observing systems The SIZ is crucial! Loitering ice edge: The SIZ is big... high melt...cheap ice/oc'n buoys increasing stratification + remote sensing suppressed upwelling of nutrients, heat, salt Now it retreats! How does this "left behind" area evolve? What does the rapidly retreating ice edge look like?
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