Interannual Variations of Arctic Cloud Types:
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1 Interannual Variations of Arctic Cloud Types: Relationships with Sea Ice and Surface Temperature Ryan Eastman Stephen Warren University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences
2 Changes in Arctic Temperature Rising surface air temperatures since the 1970's
3 Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Declining September sea-ice extent
4 Clouds & Changes in Arctic Climate What is the role of cloud cover in Arctic climate change? What is the Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE) in the Arctic?
5 CRE Defined CRE whether clouds warm or cool the surface Two competing effects: Longwave (IR) effect Shortwave effect Surface receives more Infrared Radiation (IR) from a cloudy sky than from a clear sky Clouds warm the surface Surface receives more sunlight from a clear sky than from a cloudy sky Clouds cool the surface In both cases, low clouds have a greater effect because they are thicker and composed of water Effect depends upon season:
6 CRE in Winter, Longwave Only
7 Spring/Fall CRE, Shortwave < Longwave
8 Summer, Shortwave > Longwave
9 Cloud Detection Satellite looking down Surface looking up
10 Cloud Data Synoptic surface observations from land ( ) and ocean ( ) Including observations taken from stations drifting on sea ice Observations taken daily every three or six hours Nighttime observations thrown out if insufficient moonlight Stations specifically chosen to include nighttime obs Total cloud cover and nine cloud types: High cloud (cirriform) Middle Clouds: Altocumulus, Altostratus, Nimbostratus Low Clouds: Cumulonimbus, Cumulus, Stratus, Stratocumulus, fog
11 Arctic Stations
12 Observations per Year (Hundreds) From ships and stations
13 Using These Data... Compiled an Arctic cloud climatology for 60 to 90 North In this presentation: Characterize Arctic cloud cover Discuss predicted changes in Arctic clouds Cloud changes at Barrow Study a sub-dataset over only the Arctic ocean Cloud trends over the Arctic ocean Correlations of cloud cover with Arctic sea ice extent and surface air temperature Cloud anomalies in years with high/low ice minima Compare with other available Arctic cloud data
14 Arctic Clouds Through the Year From October to April cloudier away from the pole From May-September more clouds near the pole Because of large presence of low stratiform clouds at high latitudes during summer
15 Predicted Arctic Cloud Changes By General Circulation Models forced with 2 X CO2 Cloud cover is predicted to increase Low clouds will increase the most Increase is strongest during the dark season Precipitation is also predicted to increase Predicted cloud changes should warm the Arctic during all seasons but summer
16 Clouds Changes at Barrow
17 Clouds Changes at Barrow
18 Clouds Changes at Barrow
19 Clouds Changes at Barrow Total cloud cover is increasing Increase is caused mostly by an increase in low stratiform cloud cover Seasonal anomalies of total cloud cover are primarily driven by changes in low stratiform clouds Any input from residents is appreciated
20 Trends in Arctic Ocean Cloud Cover Two regions: Arctic Ocean, and a sub-region called the 'Beaufort-Laptev' region This sub-region is chosen because it is where the seaice edge has been most variable Study the change in cloud cover in each region based on linear fits to time series
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26 Summary of Cloud Trends Total cloud cover is increasing in all seasons Low clouds are most responsible for the trend Most significantly in spring and autumn Stronger increases in Beaufort Laptev region Especially low stratiform clouds Precipitating clouds are decreasing in all seasons Surprising, given predicted increases Not likely due to aerosols, which have decreased
27 Correlations with Sept. Sea Ice Extent
28 Correlations with Sept. Sea Ice Extent Less September ice observed after cloudy spring Cloud forcing More autumn clouds occur when less ice is present Cloud response
29 Correlations with Sept. Sea Ice Extent Summer nimbostratus clouds show a positive correlation with September sea ice extent
30 Correlation with Surface Air Temperature
31 Correlation Results During a year with less ice: It is cloudier during spring and autumn Less precipitating cloud is seen in summer During a warmer year: There is greater cloud cover in winter, spring, and autumn
32 Extreme Ice Years Low clouds more prevalent during the autumn of a low ice September Suggests cloud response to sea-ice retreat Less September ice More autumn cloud cover
33 Arctic Ocean Cloud Study Results Cloud changes of recent decades appear to enhance Arctic Warming During winter positive cloud trends may contribute to warm temperatures In Summer negative trends in precipitating clouds are associated with less ice in September During spring and autumn positive cloud trends are likely acting to enhance warming and reduce sea ice Autumn clouds increase after a low-ice September, also shown by Kay and Gettelman This work will be available as a paper through the Journal of Climate
34 Acknowledgments Robert Wood, Cecilia Bitz, Mike Wallace, Axel Schweiger, Xuanji Wang, and Jeff Key for helpful feedback and discussion Carole Hahn, Xuanji Wang, Jeff Key, and Axel Schweiger for making data available NSF's Climate Dynamics Program & NOAA's Climate Change Data and Detection program
35 Comparison of Cloud Detection Methods Satellite Data Surface Observations
36 APP-x and Surface TOVS and Surface Observations, 60 to 90 N Observations, Ocean Only
37 Individual Boxes During DJF Interannual variations in satellite data in all 10 grid boxes are coherent throughout the Arctic Individual boxes plotted as gray lines, Arctic mean is thick line Surface observations do not show this tendency
Changes in Cloud Cover and Cloud Types Over the Ocean from Surface Observations, Ryan Eastman Stephen G. Warren Carole J.
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