Sea-ice change around Alaska & Impacts on Human Activities
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1 Sea-ice change around Alaska & Impacts on Human Activities Hajo Eicken Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks, Introduction The Arctic sea-ice cover: Observations & predictions Alaska sea-ice change Impacts Conclusions 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 1
2 Sea-ice change around Alaska & Impacts on Human Activities Introduction The Arctic sea-ice cover: Observations & predictions Alaska sea-ice change Impacts Conclusions 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 2
3 Arctic sea-ice summer extent Sep 16, 2007 nsidc.org Summer minimum median ice edge ( 79-00) Perennial ice record sea-ice minimum,almost one quarter less in extent than previous record minimum in 2005 Winter ice extent is decreasing but at much slower rate: More seasonal ice! 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 3
4 The 2007 record minimum Arctic sea-ice summer extent: Possible explanations (1) Longer-term retreat pattern roughly in line with what is predicted as result of global warming (2) Thinner, younger, more mobile ice moves & retreats more quickly in summer (3) Southerly winds brought warm air and moved ice towards North Pole in 2007 (4) Warm inflow of water through Bering Strait (?) (5) Warming of water north of Alaska as a result of thinned & reduced ice cover melts back ice from below in summer (>7 feet of summer bottom melt north of Alaska!) 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 4
5 The 2007 record minimum Arctic sea-ice summer extent: Possible explanations (1) Longer-term retreat pattern roughly in line with what is predicted as result of global warming (2) Thinner, younger, more mobile ice moves & retreats more quickly in summer (3) Southerly winds brought warm air and moved ice towards North Pole in 2007 (4) Warm inflow of water through Bering Strait (?) (5) Warming of water north of Alaska as a result of thinned & reduced ice cover melts back ice from below in summer (>7 feet of summer bottom melt north of Alaska!) 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 5
6 The Arctic sea-ice cover: Model projections Meehl et al., /15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 6
7 The Arctic sea-ice cover: Model projections Recent summer reductions somewhat faster than models predict Several plausible explanations, related to how albedo, ice thickness and other factors are simulated Stroeve et al., /15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 7
8 Climate models and regional projections 1990s sim 2010s sim 1990s obs Arctic averaged March ice thickness Holland et al. (2006) found abrupt reductions in ice extent in some CCSM3 ensemble runs Ice thickness representation in models Sensitivity to parameterization schemes (in particular albedo) 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 8
9 Sea-ice change around Alaska & Impacts on Human Activities Introduction The Arctic sea-ice cover: Observations & predictions Alaska sea-ice change Impacts Conclusions 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 9
10 Minimum ice extent anomalies, onset of freezing/melt, freezing/thawing degree-days NSIDC (2007) Reduction in summer ice Beaufort/Chukchi Seas: Later freeze-up, reduced freezing degree-days Mahoney et al. (2007) 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 10
11 2007: Record ice year in Alaska? Starting in early June 2007, amount of open water at record high in ice-covered Alaska seas At Barrow air temperature in normal range during this same time 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 11
12 Summer ice variability: Regional ice regime vs. Arctic ice regime Length of Barrow-Prudhoe navigation season, severity of ice in coastal Chukchi- Beaufort Sea in August- September (computed by National Ice Center) Resolution/accuracy of remote sensing data Interannual & local variability Summer ice incursions 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 12
13 Landfast ice zone Pack ice Landfast ice extensions Bottomfast ice Floating landfast ice Grounded ridges (shear/stamukhi zone) 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 13
14 Seasonal cycle of landfast ice extent Mahoney et al. (2007) Mean controlled by bathymetry Maximum controlled by pack/landfast ice interaction (stable extension) Minimum controlled by break-out events Iñupiaq ice experts: Breakouts much more frequent since early 1990s 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 14
15 : This study E Chuk West Centr East Beauf Zone Zone Zone Zone All zones Mean Dec Oct Nov Nov Nov First Ice*! Stable Ice Break up Ice Free Mean Feb 23 Jan 22 Jan 28 Jan 27 Feb 01! Mean Jun 04 Jun 11 Jun 04 May 26 Jun 06! Mean Jun 18 Jun 24 Jun 24 Jun 06 Jun 18! Barry et al. (1979a) Central Central Chukchi Beaufort Early November Feb Mid October Jan/Feb Jun 10 Jun 30 Jul 05 Aug 01 First continuous fast ice Stable ice inside of 15 m isobath First openings and movement Nearshore largely free of fast ice * omitted from analysis Mahoney et al. (2007) 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 15
16 Winter sea-ice break-out events Barrow December 13, 2001: Ice breaks out from stretch of coastline SW of Barrow past NARL (>15 km) 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities Photo: Craig George 16
17 Solar heating of surface waters in pack ice Perovich et al., GRL, 2007 Solar heating linear trend (% yr 1 ) Oceans north of Alaska have received at least twice as much heat from sun in recent years compared to 1980s Solar heat input at 75 N 165 W 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 17 Mean ann. heat input, MJ m 2.
18 Sea-ice change around Alaska & Impacts on Human Activities Introduction The Arctic sea-ice cover: Observations & predictions Alaska sea-ice change Impacts Conclusions 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 18
19 Regulating Climate regulator Marine & coastal hazard Stabilizing element in coastal zone Geologic agent (ice rafting of sediments, bottom interaction) Provisioning Transportation corridor Platform (industry & subsistence) Freshwater source Source of food Cultural Subsistence activities Ice as part of cultural & spiritual landscape (incl. tourism) Supporting Ice-based foodwebs Reservoir and driver of biological diversity (e.g., extremophiles) Sea-ice system services (1) Icescape (2) Platform & Hazard (3) Habitat 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 19
20 Arctic Research C ommission, 2004 ACIA, 2004 Response to changing conditions: Reexamination of EEZ/territorial claims in the context of marine transportation and resource extraction (Russia, Denmark/Greenland, Canada) 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 20
21 Lease areas in relation to ice conditions Lease sale data: MMS (2005) 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 21
22 Multi-year ice incursions 2006 Reservoir of MY ice north of Canada: Delay of seasonal ice retreat, summer & winter ice hazard, variability in summer ice conditions over shelf 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 22
23 FYI MYI Dec 1, 2007 Jan 1, 2008 Ice circulation patterns help bring old (multiyear) ice to Beaufort Sea coast If normal ice drift pattern persists, multiyear ice likely to arrive at Barrow by mid/late spring 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 23
24 Annual sea-ice cycle & operational windows December Freeze-up & ice advance September Open water Stable landfast ice March Melt June 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 24
25 Annual sea-ice cycle & operational windows Sep Ice incursions Open water December Freeze-up & ice advance Melt June Stable landfast ice Spring flooding Landfast-ice break-out events March Early surface melt events Winter-spring ice transition (lead densities increase) Open-water operations regime longer, potential for ice incursions Landfast-ice operations regime shorter, potential for break-outs Coastal & offshore ice regime more variable in time & space Highly specific to a given location 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 25
26 Observing change: How to concentrate on what s meaningful to people? Sea ice use & services 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 26
27 The value of integrated sea-ice observations Remote sensing (km-scale): Ice extent and evolution Coastal radar (sub-km scale): Ice dynamics and evolution EM thickness and DGPS topography surveys (sub-km scale) Ice mass-balance site (10s m- scale): sealevel, water temperature, ice & snow thickness & temperature Local ice observations (J. Leavitt, A. Brower Sr. and others): Iñupiaq expertise & ice use, annual cycle Seasonal Ice Zone Observing Network (SIZONet) IPY Project M. Druckenmiller et al. 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 27
28 Conclusions Open water season: longer, potential for ice incursions (ice detection) Landfast ice: extent little changed, less stable (lack of grounded ridges and stabilizing factors) Coastal zone: Change in ice dynamics (rafting, sediment entrainment, break-outs)? Multi-year ice reservoir remains in Canadian Arctic with overall thinner ice: More variability Role of local expertise in responding and adapting to changing conditions Resources: AOOS: ak.aoos.org NWS Anchorage Ice Desk: pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php National Snow & Ice Data Center: nsidc.org Barrow/Wales Ice Observatory 1/15/08 AK Sea Ice Change & Impacts on Human Activities 28
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