SEASONAL FORECAST PORTOFOLIO MODELING

Transcription

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2 SEASONAL FORECAST

3 SEASONAL FORECAST PORTOFOLIO MODELING

4 Special Applications EWEA Wind Power Forecasting Workshop 2015 Wind resource seasonal forecast outcomes from SPECS project Gil Lizcano & Abel Vortex Nube Gonzalez, Veronica Torralba & Francisco IC3 BSC

5 SPECS will deliver a new generation of climate prediction systems for seasonal-to-decadal time scales, to provide actionable climate information for a wide range of users

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7 In the next 12 minutes Why we can forecast at seasonal scale How reliable are actual seasonal forecast systems My conclusions and some questions to you

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9 Two reasons seasonal forecast is possible* Why we can Answering different questions: seasonal predictions provide estimates of seasonalmean statistics of weather, typically up to three months ahead of the season in question Slow Motion = More Memory The physical basis for such estimates arises from the effect of predictable seasonal- timescale signals arising from the ocean, and to a lesser extent the land surface, on the atmosphere * You might have a look to SPECS factsheets (

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11 How reliable * You might have a look to SPECS factsheets (

12 How reliable Forecast Event: higher and lower terciles Observed frequencies vs forecast probabilities Bootstrapped Weighted linear regression (~ #events for each bin) Is near 1:1 relation? Does improve climatology (⅓)? ( grey shaded area) Figure taken from Weisheimer, A. and T.N. Palmer (2014), On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts. J.R.Soc. Interface, 11,

13 Seasonal Forecast Specifications Ensemble Forecast (butterflies and truncation) Global Circulations Model ECMWF System-4 (51 members) NMME (8 models from NCEP, CCCma, GFDL, NCAR, NASA) Ensemble Dressing Downscaling & Empirical Enhancement Bias Correction using latest Reanalysis as proxy for observations Post-processing // Communication Beat the climatology (Renalysis/Forecast hindcast) Why we can

14 How reliable Reliability of the ECMWF seasonal forecasts of dry JJA Figure taken from Weisheimer, A. and T.N. Palmer (2014), On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts. J.R.Soc. Interface, 11,

15 Improve climatology Not too far from climatology perfomance How reliable Examples reliability diagrams for the ECMWF November seasonal forecasts (S4) for a Windy DJF (mean speed > 3rd tercile)

16 How reliable Perfect Still Useful Marginal Useful Not Useful Dangerous Reliability of the ECMWF seasonal forecasts of High Winds DJF.

17 How reliable High WINDS Warm & Cold YEMPERATURE Perfect Still Useful Marginal Useful Not Useful Reliability of the ECMWF seasonal forecasts of High Winds & Temperature (warm & cold) DJF. Dangerous

18 Comments Seasonal Forecast is not a Perfect Reliable system International efforts do exists to improve the technology Forecast reliability for wind is not worse than for temperatures More reliable for positive wind anomalies More analysis are needed (always) More refinements are required (?) [to discuss]

19 Homeworks

20 Homeworks If I could tell you the average wind conditions for the next three months, could you improve your business operations? How can a forecast benefit your decision making processes? Ability to make decisions earlier. Avoid subjective decision making. Take calculated precautionary action. Potential cost saving.

21 EPILOGUE

22 EPILOGUE source:twitter (mostly)

23 EPILOGUE Wind speed prediction for June 1st - August 31st 2015, issued on May 1st The most likely wind power category (below normal, normal or above normal), and its percentage probability to occur is shown. Normal represents the average of the past. White areas show where the probability is <40% and approximately equal for all three categories. Grey areas show where the climate prediction model does not improve upon the standard and current approach, which projects past climate data into the future.